Episode 79
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss the effects of a signing in Tampa Bay and the third base crop.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 47 min of joyous analysis.

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Will Middlebrooks had a fairly promising future with the Red Sox after being called up in 2012. His 2013 season did not go as planned. A couple of injuries and a demotion caused havoc on his season. Going forward into 2014, his career will be at a cross roads for several reasons.

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Dustin Pedroia’s wrist pushed back my look at pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery. While doing the Pedroia article, I created a query to look at HURT values on a month to month basis. While it isn’t really needed for the off-season, it will be ready for the start of the 2014 season.

• Dustin Pedroia is supposed to have thumb surgery on Tuesday and will be out for 6 to 8 weeks (link).

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Last week, I talked about the youngest regular position player in the Appalachian League: Mets shortstop Amed Rosario, who was named the circuit’s top prospect by Baseball America after the season. Sticking with the youth theme in the Appy, this week I’m going to focus on the league’s youngest regular starting pitcher, 18-year-old Rays righthander German Marquez. Marquez did not appear on BA’s top 20 postseason Appy prospects, but with solid performance (3.50 FIP), a nice arsenal, and plenty of time and room to develop further, I’d argue he deserves to be placed squarely among the circuit’s most intriguing players, and is definitely a player to watch.

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Matt Dominguez was the 12th overall pick of the 2007 draft by the then Florida Marlins. He hit well at Single-A in 2008, posting a .382 wOBA and .203 ISO, and that was enough to get him listed among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects at 64 for the 2009 season. Unfortunately, it all went downhill offensively from there. Since then, he failed to exceed a .347 wOBA, which he posted the following season at High-A. He then missed being ranked among the top 100 prospects in 2010 before making a return at 81 in 2011. Now a member of the Houston Astros, we fast forward to 2013, his first full season. Dominguez hit 21 home runs, which was enough to make him the 18th most valuable third baseman, the last one at the position to earn positive value.

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In fantasy, there are certain truths that we as owners have grown to expect and rely upon. Power comes from the corners, speed comes from the middle and the outfield is a nice blend of the two. So when it came to drafting a third baseman, you had a choice — invest heavily for one of the marquee names and get your 30-40 bombs or take a more economical approach and pay less for a 20-25 home run guy and shuffle your remaining bid dollars or picks around to create a more well-balanced but still powerful roster. When Mike Moustakas smacked 20 home runs in his first full season in 2012 and posted a .171 ISO, we were given another economical option, but one who also had the potential to to produce even more. With solid power numbers in the minors, he had some hype to him but considering he was only a 20-home run guy, the price tag wasn’t too high. Until, of course, that power you paid for never arrived. Read the rest of this entry »

Behind only Mike Trout and Bryce Harper in the banner crop of “under-22” phenoms rocketing into the baseball the last few years, Manny Machado still hadn’t fully convinced redraft owners heading into 2013. The SS-turned-3B was not drafted by a starter at the hot corner in standard leagues, coming off the board 189th (at least, in ESPN leagues), making him a mid-teens third baseman in the mid-teens rounds (for those in auction leagues, a $2-4 player). Owners willing to take a chance were rewarded with surplus value, as Machado finished 10th in Zach Sanders’ end-of-season FVAR rankings, posting $11 of sweet, sweet value. But is it rosy skies ahead in 2014 and beyond for the future face of the Orioles franchise?

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Diamondbacks third baseman Martin Prado continues to be a useful fantasy asset. After emerging as a full-time player at age-25, Prado has a solid, but not spectacular option in the infield. There’s no one skill where Prado is outstanding. He consistently hits for a high enough average, provides moderate power and scores a fair amount of runs. He’s mainly been effective up the middle, where his overall numbers play much better. While Prado should retain second base eligibility in most leagues after playing 32 games at the position, his offensive performance was slightly down after a fine walk year. For a player who doesn’t provide elite statistics in any specific area, Prado could be hit harder than others once he experiences age-related decline.

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I have made it very well known that I wasn’t particularly optimistic about Pedro Alvarez’s fantasy value this season. We all figured him for a poor batting average, so he would have to make it up with immense power to truly benefit his owners. And boy did he ever. He upped his home run total and boosted his ISO, fueled up by a slight nudge in his HR/FB ratio. Despite hitting just .233, the power output was enough to make him the ninth most valuable third baseman in fantasy leagues this year.

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Kyle Seager settled in as a full-time third baseman in 2013, and while no longer having positional flexibility is inconvenient, he remained a top option at the hot corner.

A year after ranking 14th at the position in overall value, Seager pushed forward to be a starting caliber third baseman for 12-team leagues, ranking 12th in overall value.

His final fantasy lines were very similar:

2012 – .259, 20 HR, 62 R, 86 RBI, 13 SB
2013 – .260, 22 HR, 79 R, 69 RBI, 9 SB

But Seager actually made some improvements this year that make it appear there could be even more in store in his age-26 season.
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