MASH Report (11/7/13) – Dustin Pedroia Special

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November 7, 2013

Dustin Pedroia’s wrist pushed back my look at pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery. While doing the Pedroia article, I created a query to look at HURT values on a month to month basis. While it isn’t really needed for the off-season, it will be ready for the start of the 2014 season.

• Dustin Pedroia is supposed to have thumb surgery on Tuesday and will be out for 6 to 8 weeks (link).

Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia has surgery scheduled for Nov. 12 in Arizona to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, but the procedure may be a bit more complicated than originally thought.
…
“I should be fine for spring training.”
…
Pedroia said he expects to be sidelined between 4-6 weeks or 6-8 weeks depending on which procedure Sheridan chooses.

At the latest, he should begin baseball activities in the mid-January. He should easily be 100% healthy for the regular season start. The most important note from the article was:

Pedroia conceded that while the injury to his thumb made for a long, painful season (he injured it the first game of the year sliding head-first into first base), he learned quickly how to compensate for it.

A season long injury could explain his power outages.

Stat: 2012 Value, 2013 Value
ISO: .160,  .114
HR/FB: 8.5%,  5.6%
HR&FB Dist: 271ft, 263 ft

When looking at the end of year HURT rankings, he had no injury signs and only showed up in the initial HURT report back in June.

After June, he saw continued improvement as he had to learned to hit differently. The change can be seen in his month-to-month HURT values (a 100 value is usually a player showing signs of being hurt).

Month: HURT
April: 164
May: 12
June: 25
July: 4
August: 62
September: 37

A 164 HURT would have sent up some early red flags. Since I didn’t create HURT until June, the full extent of his injury went undetected.

Going into 2014, I see Pedroia being undervalued because of 2013 power outage. I would be looking to buy low with him.

• Albert Pujols feels good and is swinging a bat. Yep, injury news is pretty scarce.

• Roman Quinn, a top-5 Phillies prospect, ruptured a Achilles tendon and will likely be out until 2015.

Possible Players on the DL to Start the 2014 Season

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.

Major League Report

Minor League Report





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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Jonathan Sher
10 years ago

While I agree Pedroia’s power was diminished by his injury, a couple of points:

(1) His injury and imminent surgery has been so widely written about, including on all the mainstream sports sites, that it seems likely that even most casual fantasy players will be expecting a power rebound. I the rebounds is widely expected, Pedroia will not be under-valued.

(2) I’d be curious what the recovery is like from such surgery. My son tore the same ligament a year ago playing soccer goalie, didn’t have surgery, and recovered, but even at a young age when the body heals faster, we were told not to expect the ligament to be as strong as it had been. Pedroia’s injury, which require surgery and may require the use of another ligament, is clearly more serious. Baseball Prospectus looked specifically at this type of injury a couple of years ago:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15729

If you skim to the bottom, you will see that in cases of surgery, the recovery time until full use is three months. Perhaps the writers were in error. But I wouldn’t be stunned if the recovery time is lengthier than anticipated.

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Jeff Zimmermanmember
10 years ago
Reply to  Jonathan Sher

1) I find people way over valuing recent performance way too much, even if there is a reasonable explanation for the change. I have heard people dropping where they value Wacha a couple of rounds based on game 6 of the W.S. Some people will not drop Pedroia’s value, but other will.

2) Thanks for the information. Actually reading the article makes sense. I have found the 6-8 weeks to be the time frame for the player to begin rehab, not to be at 100%. After they start rehab, they will still have a set time to get to 100%. While this is not always the case and the time frame will change depending on the injury, I usually add 2 weeks to 4 weeks onto the expected return time. Even with the extra time, Pedroia should easily be ready for the start of the season.

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