Episode 80
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss the first big signing of the off-season and the shortstop crop.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

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Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 48 min of joyous analysis.

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Jurickson Profar finally got some decent time in the majors during the 2013 season because of an Ian Kinsler injury. Plenty of hype surrounded the 20-year-old since he was a generally considered the game’s top prospect going into last season. He is still a young with plenty of room for growth, but I am worried about speed limiting his fantasy potential.

Before I delve into the numbers, all of Profar’s value will hinge on his playing time. Last season, the best prospect in baseball didn’t have a position with Ian Kinsler at second and Elvis Andrus at shortstop. The lack of an everyday position never opened up until Kinsler got hurt. Once Profar was given a chance to start, he didn’t exactly excel at the plate. He hit .234/.308/.336 with 6 HR and 2 SB. Most of the switch hitter’s struggles came against left-handed pitchers with a .188/.291/.250 line.

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It’s like deja vu all over again here as I get to discuss the fantasy relevance of Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford during another post-season position wrap-up. For those who weren’t here last season or simply don’t remember, here’s the piece where I opine that Crawford may be an outstanding defensive shortstop, but he offers next to nothing in terms of fantasy contribution and is best left alone come draft day. Well, now here we are one year later and while there was a touch of improvement in some areas, the opinion remains the same. Enjoy the ESPN Web Gems and your local highlights on Comcast Bay Area, but when it comes to fantasy baseball, move along. There’s nothing left to see here.

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The biggest story involving Zack Cozart this year was most certainly related to his spot in the batting order. He actually opened the season batting seventh, but after his scorching start that included a .108 OBP over his first nine games (he actually hit second in his eighth game), Dusty Baker had seen enough of Cozart’s strong on base skills to move him permanently to the top of the order sandwiched between Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Votto. It then took until mid-June before Baker realized the error of his ways and Cozart began shuttling back and forth between the top and the bottom of the lineup. Finally by mid-July, Cozart had officially become a bottom of the order hitter and would only see the two hole, or any lineup slot higher than sixth, once the rest of the way.

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After a year in which one-time Brewers shortstop-of-the-future and current Royals man-up-the-middle, Alcides Escobar, batted .293 with a .331 on-base percentage and 35 stolen bases, expectations were running awfully high in fantasy circles. His lack of power was dismissed in favor of the potential for more speed and there seemed to be little concern over the fact that his walk rate stayed at its woeful 4.2-percent while he saw a minor spike in strikeouts. Some pointed to his inflated .344 BABIP but his supporters pointed to his minor league batted ball data and his above-average contact rates. But when Escobar finished the season with a dismal .234/.259/.300 slash line and swiped just 22 bags, the supporters ducked for cover as the naysayers (cue obligatory comment from John Elway) reveled in the glory of being right. Read the rest of this entry »

Elvis Andrus continues to be more than an adequate fantasy shortstop. This may come as a surprise, considering Andrus is known far more for his glove work, and not his bat. Yet, even in a down offensive season, Andrus still ranked third among shortstops in Zach Sanders’ end of season rankings. If anything, this shows how low the bar has been set for shortstop production in fantasy. Most of Andrus’ fantasy production comes from two areas, his ability to score runs and steal bases. In every other area, Andrus’ offense has been lacking. Often lost in the shuffle is the fact that Andrus broke into the majors at age-20. Given that he’s going to be 25, there’s still a chance for an offensive breakout.

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This quote from FanGraphs commenter Scott pretty much sums up Andrelton Simmons‘ season perfectly:

Simmons hit 17 hrs? I thought he was mr defense. Guess he added some pop while I wasn’t looking.

After hitting just nine home runs in 1,096 professional at-bats previously, Simmons tapped into his power by nearly doubling that total in 45% fewer at-bats. But instead of also showing the above average speed he flashed during his minor league days, he stole just six bases at a poor success rate. We know that Simmons is a defensive wiz, but where does his offensive game go from here?

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Every once in a while, something as simple as the way a player is talked about can give us some insight into their fantasy value. Take, for instance, this recent tweet from Ken Rosenthal about Jed Lowrie and Oakland’s plans:

Lots of speculation that #Athletics would move Lowrie. Keep hearing no. Plan was for him to be two-year bridge to Russell. This is year two.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 12, 2013

There are a few things to unpack here.

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So let’s dissect this bounceback. Stephen Drew put up a 109 wRC+, nearly 30 points higher than his 2012 mark. We can’t point to improved strikeout or walk rates; in fact, both of those trended slightly worse in 2013 (although the walk rate is well up over his career average).

Drew’s BABIP was the most significant contributor to the climb in batting average, jumping from .275 last season to .320 this. There’s no obvious marker in his batted ball profile that could have contributed to this; his line drives were down a smidge but the rest of his batted ball profile has been remarkably consistent across the board. Drew’s well-above average LD% contributes to high xBABIPs, with his last two years coming in at .341 and .317. Even not considered the fleetest of foot, there seems reason to believe his average should more closely resemble 2013 than 2012, at least in the near future.

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Year in and year out, you could usually count on Jimmy Rollins for double digit home runs, 30+ steals and a boat load of runs scored hitting atop the Phillies lineup. But his age 34 season was quite the disappointment as he hit the fewest home runs in a season for his career and posted his first sub-.100 ISO and sub-.300 wOBA. Heading into his age 35 season, it is fair to ask whether Rollins’ days of earning top 10 shortstop value are over.

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