• What has gotten into Mo? Mariano Rivera blew his third consecutive save on Sunday, serving up solo jacks to Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Like Friday, the Yankees were able to come back and win after the fact, but there is no denying Rivera is in an uncharacteristic funk; the three “BS”s in a row are something the 43-year-old has never done. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 49
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Brandon Warne. We discuss the first post non-waiver trade deadline deal and the hottest Athletic of them all.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 35 min of joyous analysis.

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Sorry so tardy with the bullpen report, the author was considerably under the weather last evening.

Here a are just a few notes from Saturday’s action out of the bullpen:

Rafael Betancourt is making “slow and steady progress” while recovering from an appendectomy last month. Hes tossed a few light bullpen sessions last week, so a simulated game on Monday appears to be the next course of action the veteran’s quest to return to the ninth-inning this season. Prior to the emergency procedure to remove his appendix, Betancourt notched 15 saves in 16 opportunities with a 3.16 ERA (1.21 WHIP) and a 22.2% K%. In his stead, Rex Brothers is 9-of-10 in save chances, owns a 1.52 ERA and is fanning 25% of the batters he faces. The Rockies have not mapped out a plan for their 38-year-old reliever past Monday’s potential simulated game, therefore, Brothers should continue to earn save opportunities for at least another week while Betancourt concludes his rehabilitation.

Addison Reed struggled a bit at the end of July, which Robin Ventura attributes to the right-hander being rusty from a lack of appearances, but appears to be back in the saddle for the time being. Since the former Aztec blew a save in Cleveland on the last day of July, Reed is 2-for-2 save opportunities while allowing just one earned run while posting a 2:1 K/BB. He’s now successfully closed out 28 games in 33 chances while posting a 3.61 ERA (2.59 FIP) and whiffing more than 25% of opposing hitters. A quick look at the velocity and usage on Reed’s offerings indicates his fastball appears to be down a tick from last season, but he’s not relying on that pitch as much as he used to. Reed is using his slider just over a third of the time and is throwing it harder than he has in each of the past two seasons. Opponents are slugging .239 against Reed’s fourseamer as opposed to .414 versus his slider.

Joe Nathan picked up his 332nd career save and 34th of the twenty-thirteen campaign in a 5-4 victory over the Astros in Houston last night. Nathan issued a walk, but escaped the ninth-inning unscathed to earn the handshake. This was Nathan’s third consecutive save since blowing just his second save of the year against the Yankees on July 23rd. The veteran right-hander owns a 1.54 ERA (0.90 WHIP) to go along with his 34 saves on the season and should be considered a top five-ish closing option from here on out.

Quick Hitters: LaTroy Hawkins (3), Koji Uehara (12), Casey Janssen (21), Huston Street (22), Steve Cishek (24), Kevin Gregg (25), Sergio Romo (28) and Rafael Soriano (29) each picked up saves on Saturday night. Hawkins is still available in 83% of Y! leagues for those hunting for late-season saves. David Hernandez of the Diamondbacks was optioned to the Triple-A Reno Aces after last evening’s outing. He’s struggled mightily through the early summer, but will look to get his confidence back on the farm, as his stuff doesn’t appear to be the primary concern at the moment.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

You know how we pick on the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins a lot in this space? Basically, daily leagues allow you to “stream” starters against opponents every day, but instead of worrying about waiver availability we instead worry about prices. If a match-up is too obvious, it’s likely been factored into the price.

That’s why sometimes a safe match against the Marlins maybe isn’t worth it, because DraftStreet knows a match against the Marlins is safe. The same goes for the Astros, who hit a little better but strike out a bunch more.

I wanted to pull some data to see whether these match-ups are still “worth it” and if perhaps the public perception of the poor offenses has overshot the efficacy of facing them, so to speak.
Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Presidential Joke Day! Here is a clip from the 2011 White House Press Correspondence Dinner, specifically Seth Meyer’s portion. His bit describing the various after parties is just fantastic.

On today’s agenda:
1. Josh Reddick flashes the power
2. A week of steals for Leonys Martin
3. Quick update on Roy Halladay
4. Time to pick up Ike Davis
Read the rest of this entry »

The other day I found myself wondering what the downside risk of any starting pitcher was. If I could be relatively assured that a starter would throw a couple innings and get a couple of strikeouts, was it worth grabbing someone at a wild discount?

The player I was considering was Donovan Hand, on Thursday. He was about $5k cheaper than any other starter on a day without many options on the slate. I passed, and that turned out to be a good thing, as Hand allowed 11 baserunners and four earned over five innings. Even then, though, he managed 0.8 points on the day.

So, if Hand comes cheap and manages positive points in a terrible outing, does that make really cheap starters a better use of resources than, say, a cheap hitter who could rack up whiffs and post a negative?
Read the rest of this entry »

Here are this week’s recommendations:

Jhoulys Chacin – 29.3% ESPN – v. SD (304 team wOBA), @BAL (.328)

Chacin’s having arguably his finest season as a major leaguer, and what’s odd is that it’s coming on the heels of his worst strikeout rate yet. In fact, he’s experienced a decline in whiff rate for his entire five-year career.

Chacin has supplemented his declining strikeout rate with an insanely good HR/9 rate — 0.3 per 9 which leads the NL — and a still solid groundball rate of 46.7%. All this while essentially becoming a fastball-slider guy by scrapping his curve. Read the rest of this entry »

You thought there were only two certainties in life, huh? Well, if you play fantasy baseball, then you know that there’s a third lurking out there and it always seems to rear its ugly head at the absolute worst time. An alternative title to this piece was, “Who Is This Murphy Guy, What’s With the Stupid Law, and Where Can I Find Him So I Can Punch Him in the Face?” but it wouldn’t fit within the framework of the web site. Nevertheless, you know where I’m going with this one, I’m sure. There’s nothing worse than building a championship-caliber team only to see it ravaged by injuries in August and free-fall in the standings. Read the rest of this entry »

I recently wrote an article about Marco Scutaro and how his real-life value is far superior to his fantasy value. The on-the-field versus on-paper value disconnect has always been interesting to me since I started seriously playing fantasy baseball. Following up on the Scutaro article, I wanted to find an example of a starting pitcher who has been exceedingly effective on the mound, yet that effectiveness has not translated to fantasy value.

My immediate reaction was to focus on Hiroki Kuroda. He’s a guy who doesn’t strikeout many batters, yet consistently generates good results. However, he’s been the 11th-best starting pitcher in ESPN leagues this year. That knocks him out of the running for this article.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday I took a look at Paul Goldschmidt’s strange home/road splits. Despite a basic park factor of 105 in Arizona in addition to a 105 factor for home runs for right-handers, Goldschmidt has been noticeably better on the road. And as I was trolling around looking at numbers this week, I came across Joey Votto who has also been quite a bit better on the road despite a very favorable home ballpark.

So I decided to see what other players were seeing some backwards home/road splits. I took all players with 600+ PA both at home and on the road since the beginning of 2011. And I only included players that called the same ballpark home for that entire span. Below is a list of the players whose home wOBA is lower than their road wOBA despite their home park having an above average basic park factor. Read the rest of this entry »