Bullpen Report: August 11, 2013

• What has gotten into Mo? Mariano Rivera blew his third consecutive save on Sunday, serving up solo jacks to Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Like Friday, the Yankees were able to come back and win after the fact, but there is no denying Rivera is in an uncharacteristic funk; the three “BS”s in a row are something the 43-year-old has never done. There are not a tremendous amount of red flags in Rivera’s rates right now; his 3.11 xFIP (after today) is higher than his career 2.99 average, but not outlandishly so. His velocity has bounced back after a so-so 2012 (and is not trending down), and his K% and BB% are right in line with his old, dominant self. His LD% has jumped nearly 10 points this year to 24%, although liners don’t tend to stabilize until around 650 balls in play, so that’s not as big of a red flag as it might seem. His days of putting up a sub-2.00 ERA might be long gone, but his peripherals imply he should still be a valuable fantasy closer down the stretch. Don’t panic; I may even consider tossing the Rivera owner an offer in redraft leagues — maybe he doesn’t read Fangraphs.

• Ernesto Frieri has been “demoted” from the closer role in Los Angeles. I’ve been concerned about his wildness all season, but, while he’s walked four over his last eight outings (5.2 innings), the bigger issue has been the .571 BABIP. There’s some unfortunate breaks there, but combining a proclivity for free passes, some bad batted ball luck, and Mike Scioscia as your manager seems to be a combination for getting yanked from the role.

It sounds like Dane de la Rosa will get the bulk of the opportunities while Frieri works out his kinks in lower leverage situations. de la Rosa isn’t a whiff-master (21.7% K%) but his BB% is a welcome (even if non-elite) 8.3%. He boasts a mid-90’s heater and a >50% GB% so he has a chance to be very effective in the ninth. If you are hurting for saves, make sure someone else has claimed him — he could end up garnering the majority of the opportunities for the Halos down the stretch.

• Rex Brothers notched another save in lieu of the injured Rafael Betancourt, marking the third day in a row he’s been summoned to the bump (two saves, and one “get some work” appearance on Friday in a 10-1 game). Brothers continues to outpitch his peripherals (1.49 ERA, 3.71 xFIP) and, as Alan covered in last night’s Bullpen Report, Betancourt is making slow but steady progress in rehabbing after his appendectomy. There is nothing signaling “DANGER” about Brothers’ peripherals — you can still be a quasi-effective closer with a mid-3.00’s xFIP — but the combination of his xFIP-ERA split and Betancourt’s impending return may make him a nice sell-high candidate as we approach trade deadlines in most leagues.

Since Brothers is likely to be unavailable tomorrow, those really scrounging for saves might want to look at Matt Belisle (leads Rockies in non-closer gmLI over the last thirty days, but has also thrown two days in a row) or Wilton Lopez (worse rates and lower leverage use, but fresher arm) as single day streamers.

• It certainly looks like LaTroy Hawkins is the new closer in New York, even if Terry Collins won’t come out and say it. Hawkins racked up another save yesterday and pitched a scoreless ninth with a four-run lead today (not an official save situation, but the correct usage). David Aardsma, his main competition for saves, pitched the seventh inning of an 8-4 game, although it should be noted that he was warming up when it was still 5-4. Therefore, he wasn’t in consideration for any hypothetical save chance, anyway. Hawkins is enjoying his highest SwStr% in almost a decade (2004, Cubs) and the combination of his groundball tendencies and low walk rate should serve him well as fill-in closer until Bobby Parnell is able to return (if Bobby Parnell is able to return). Make sure he’s scooped up in even shallow leagues.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]