Episode 51
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss September call-ups and a potentially settled bullpen in Houston.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 44 min of joyous analysis.

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Another few days of little injury news (not even one pitcher came of the DL). I am looking at few players and running the SLOW values for just the last couple of months. Additionally, I am slowing making some changes to the DL table. When applicable, I am trying to be a little more precise when a player will return in 2014. So if they had a major injury (e.g. TJS), I am going to begin to put in some possible return dates (month/year). For players just shutdown for the 2013 season, I will put EOS (end of season).

• Jeremy Hefner was placed on the DL with a torn ligament in his elbow. Cases like Hefner intrigue me. He has been battling the injury since June (source).

Collins said the diagnosis likely explains Hefner’s recent ineffectiveness.

“This certainly had a lot to do with it,” Collins said before the Mets’ 5-4, 12-inning loss to the Dodgers last night. “I know he could pitch with it, that’s why he did, but we just saw a big difference that there had to be something that we tried to address.”

Collins said the organization was aware of Hefner’s elbow soreness since at least June.

At the start of the season, his fastball velocity was at 90.3 mph and his average game Zone% was 42.3%. Since the start of June, his fastball is up to 91 mph and his average game Zone% stood at 46.2%. Signs pointed to Hefner getting healthier as the season dragged on. I don’t see any way of predicting this injury.

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Few prospects dominate the majors immediately. Ike Davis and Justin Smoak had so much promise once upon a time, only to see their stars dim in recent years. Coming into the season, Davis was still a somewhat promising player, whose struggled through an early illness in 2012. Smoak had already been written off as a bust. While the struggles continue for Davis, he’s starting showing signs of life after a recent promotion. Smoak is starting to show effectiveness in the majors for the first time in his career. There may still be hope for the former prospects.

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Most prospect hounds are beginning to take notice of Rockies pitching prospect Eddie Butler. He entered the 2013 season with significant pedigree–he was selected 46th overall in last year’s draft–and has pulled off the rare feat of advancing two levels in his first full professional season. Butler made nine starts with Low-A Asheville and thirteen with High-A Modesto before the team deemed him done with the lower minors; he’s thrown ten scoreless, walkless innings with 12 strikeouts across his first two Double-A outings. That’s some serious prospect helium over the past four months.

Of course, this is a fantasy website. The notion of betting on a pitching prospect in fantasy can be terrifying in its own right, but betting on one destined for Coors Field is certainly unappetizing. Unfortunate environmental situation aside, Butler is definitely an arm to keep track of.

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A few times recently in this space I’ve highlighted the impact that multi-home run or multi-stolen base games can have on your daily fantasy output. Well, after the day Joe Mauer put up yesterday, I thought I’d pull the same data for four- and five-hit games.

Believe it or not, there have been 265 instances of a player notching four or more hits in a game already in 2013. That’s more than multi-home run games or multi-stolen base games, though the fantasy impact falls somewhere in between.

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I try to avoid analyzing small sample sizes, but I feel a pitcher’s small sample is significantly more insightful than a hitter’s. Well, at least if you are looking at the correct statistics. Obviously, ERA isn’t one of them. Strikeout percentage is though, as it could be the result of increased velocity, altered mechanics or a change in pitch mix. With this in mind, here are a smattering of pitchers whose appearance on the last-30 day K% leaderboard may surprise you.

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Today’s Roto Riteup comes on my sister’s birthday. I’d give her well wishes here, but we already celebrated the occasion a couple nights ago, and I don’t want to over-inflate her already massive ego.

On today’s agenda:
1. Colby Rasmus to DL
2. Desmond Jennings to return Monday, probably
3. Fun with arbitrary endpoints

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• Danny Farquhar is no longer perfect. Seattle’s new closer had an absolutely brutal ninth inning against the Rays tonight, allowing five batters to reach without recording an out. His blowup today aside, he still possesses a 2.16 xFIP and is a nice option going forward. Of course, managers are a finicky bunch (and don’t worship luck-neutral peripherals) so hopefully this was just a blip in the road for the 26-year-old. With Tom Wilhelmsen in the minors, Yoervis Medina seeing a decline in leverage usage, and Carter Capps still not pitching like Carter Capps should, Farquhar should get the next save opportunity. Just keep the finger closer to the waiver trigger in case he falters again.

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You’re at the point where you need to start filling games played, you need warm bodies in your lineup to keep your head above water while you’re trying to stay in the hunt for whatever prize it is that your league has agreed upon. Third base has seen it’s share of ugliness recently. David Wright is out with injury. Pablo Sandoval is hurting and has a .291 slugging percentage over the last month. Evan Longoria is hitting .185 since July 1. Pedro Alvarez has a .250 on base percentage in his last 25 games. Of course, I’m not saying you should bench Longoria, but there are a variety of reasons why there are many of you out there looking for answers at the hot corner. And there might be a couple.

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Per usual, this is the rest-of-season thoughts on the American League outfield. All stats cited are through August 12, 2013.

Tier One
Mike Trout

We’ll be telling our children and grandchildren about how we remember Mike Trout’s first two seasons and hopefully his entire career. Right now he is simply in a class by himself. Trout fills up the stat line and is the ideal fantasy player. He does it all.
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