Here are this week’s recommendations:
Jose Quintana – 17.7% ESPN – @NYY (.302 team wOBA), @BAL (.327)
The 24-year-old left-hander has been a revelation of sorts for the White Sox this year, going 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA and 7.5 K/9. Pitching for the White Sox has made it tough for Quintana to be a good fantasy commodity, however, as his 16 no-decisions are the most in the big leagues.
Quintana seems to be a better bet with the White Sox playing better lately — and likely soon to overtake the Twins to get out of the Central cellar — and so far, he’s the real deal, as his 3.66/3.65/3.83 pitching slash will attest. The Yankees matchup this week is a much more accommodating one, but as loyal readers will attest, a lot of times it’s one good matchup, one possibly shaky matchup with these sorts of recommendations.
Joe Kelly – 21.0% ESPN – @CIN (.314), v. PIT (.309)
After a three-inning outing versus the Dodgers on May 25, Kelly’s season ERA stood at 7.13. Since then, in Kelly’s 16 appearances (10 starts), the right-hander has tossed 72 innings of 1.88 ERA ball, with middling peripherals (5.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9) and a .235/.310/.328 opponent’s batting line.
In that time frame, Kelly is 6-1, though it certainly helps that he’s pitching for the NL Central leading Cardinals, whom have the second-most wins in the National League. Still, in a strategy set-up like this where wins and losses can be a bit hard to projection, Kelly — at least to me — seems like a pretty good bet.
Danny Duffy – 3.9% ESPN – v. SEA (.310), v. DET (.345)
Duffy’s 2013 body of work includes a pair of starts against an admittedly awful Minnesota Twins lineup, sandwiched around a solid six-inning effort where he beat the Detroit Tigers in half of a twinbill on Aug. 16. In those 16.1 innings, Duffy has racked up 17 strikeouts, walked just five, and allowed only two earned runs on 12 hits.
Duffy’s velocity isn’t all the way back from missing nearly all of 2012 with a torn UCL and Tommy John surgery, and it appears as though he’s scrapped his slider, but he still has plenty of velocity to spare with a 93.7 mph average heater so far. The Seattle matchup this week is a solid one, and he’s already shown well against the Tigers this year — though that’s probably not all that predictive — and as a result, he’ll reel in the third recommendation of the week.
Also, here’s the link to the spreadsheet I keep of results so that readers can feel free to peruse it at their leisure.