Two weeks ago in this space, I discussed five sleeper first base prospects.  Read the rest of this entry »

I wasn’t a giant fan of Ian Kennedy coming into 2013. Kennedy the pitcher, that is, not the person — after all, he might be as charming as the Dos Equis guy for all I know. But Ian Kennedy kind of registered on my radar as a respectable fourth, maybe fifth starter in a pretty good rotation. He ought to give you a decent ERA, acceptable WHIP, and perhaps a strikeout rate that flirts with about 22%.

The allure of Kennedy’s 2011 season was what likely drove his ADP up into the 10th and 11th rounds, well before the likes of Mike Minor, Matt Harvey, Lance Lynn, and a host of other cherry-picked examples of pitchers who have been far more useful. Indeed, Kennedy’s 21-4 season in 2011 came with nearly 200 strikeouts, 2.88 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP. The predictors didn’t scream fluke, but perhaps the 3.22 FIP was a whisper that he was getting a touch lucky.

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Time to rank the closers!

Again, we’re going to the bullpen report guys to do the rankings — Alan Harrison, Ben Pasinkoff and Colin Zarzycki at your service.

Take a good look now, because any minute now things might change. The Brewers, Phillies, Mets, Astros, Marlins, Cubs, and Padres all look like they could sell a bullpen piece. Problem is, there are fewer identifiable buyers with that need. Detroit is obvious. Maybe the Braves could use a lefty. Maybe the Orioles would buy a closer. Maybe the Dodgers would trade for a reliever, Ned Colletti is crazy like that.

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One of the biggest fantasy surprises this year has undoubtedly been left-hander Jeff Locke of the Pittsburgh Pirates. After getting shelled in his first 12 big-league appearances to the tune of a combined 5.82 ERA in 2011 and 2012, the southpaw has suddenly burst on the scene with a 2.15 ERA in 109.0 innings and has been a top-20 fantasy starter in most formats.

We can talk about Chris Davis and Yasiel Puig as fantasy surprises, but no coherent, reasonable person would have predicted Locke’s level of success prior to the season.

It took a while for Locke to gain the trust of fantasy owners. He’s only recently achieved 100% ownership in ESPN leagues. The uncertainty has centered around his 3.81 FIP, 4.56 SIERA and (mostly) his obscenely-low .228 BABIP. Locke is viewed as someone who’s merely riding an intense wave of good fortune, but he’s ultimately destined to crash and become the fringe back-end starter he’s always been perceived to be.

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In the preseason, I took a look at the pitchers and catchers who are the best and worst match ups for base stealers. Today I want to update that piece. The home run is king in daily fantasy, but steals can help as well. Picking the best base stealers of the day won’t win you a lot of daily contests, but you can’t spend big on power hitters at every position. A steal will get you a couple of points on DraftStreet, plus it comes along with the point from the single or three quarters of a point from the walk that allowed the hitter to reach base.

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Sometimes, the best part about trading season is less about the additions some clubs make than it is about the new roles of those left behind. In fantasy baseball, that’s rarely more relevant than it is in the bullpen, where the “save” can suddenly make barely-notable middle relievers valuable properties, simply because they’ll be pitching now in the ninth rather than the seventh or eighth.

While we could see closers move in a few places, the most likely spot to see this happen this year is going to be in Chicago, where Kevin Gregg is 35, a free-agent-to-be, having a surprisingly good season, and absolutely not going to be with the Cubs the next time they’re any good. Dale Sveum’s club has already gone through three closers this year — first Carlos Marmol before he was demoted and traded, then Kyuji Fujikawa before he got hurt, now Gregg — and it seems more likely than not that they’ll end up with at least one more before the season is out.

So… who’s it going to be? Read the rest of this entry »

With little new injury information because of the All-Star game, I will give a bit of information on three pitchers and look at the HURT and PAIN leader boards.

• Colby Lewis’s fastball is reported to be averaging 87 mph with 89 being his top end. This about 1 mph less than he threw in 2012 which was a career low.

• Chris Carpenter’s fastball in his rehab starts is averaging between 90 and 91 mph. This value would be near his 2012 when his ERA and ERA estimators hovered around 4.00.

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The mid-way point of the MLB season is a good time for fantasy players to sit back and take stock of their lot in life. For seasonal players, that means identifying areas of improvement and deciding whether to buy or sell in dynasty leagues.

For those who play in daily leagues, though, there’s a lot less to do. If you’re a DraftStreet or Fangraphs The Game addict, the last four days have probably been excruciating. But just because there aren’t set rosters and waiver wires to scourge during the four-day off-period doesn’t mean daily players can’t do some reflecting and improve for the second half.

Take a look at your bankroll compared to the start of the season and evaluate how you’ve done. If you’re meticulous and keep notes on your selections, see if you’ve been playing better in double-up formats or win-it-all formats. Have days with thin schedules hurt your payouts? It’s never too late to alter a gaming and/or investment strategy.
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Episode 39
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor and ranker extraordinaire Zach Sanders. We discuss the updated consensus rankings once again.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 43 min of joyous analysis.

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There’s still plenty of talent on the waiver wire at the halfway point. But in order to find it, owners have to be willing to take some chances. A common strategy for acquiring talent a few months into the year is targeting talented players who have faltered early in the year. In the case of Wilson Ramos, two injuries limited his playing time, making him available in most leagues. For Lonnie Chisenhall, a terrible start snowballed into something bigger, leading to a trip to the minors. Both players have returned to the majors, and are showing some signs of life. There’s still hope for both players to have some value during the second half.

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