Today’s Roto Riteup was written while the author was debating the pros and cons of consuming an adult beverage directly thereafter.
On today’s agenda:
1. Taylor Guerrieri, meet Tommy John
2. Expect trades for Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios
3. James Paxton reins it in
4. A couple of arbitrary endpoints
• Jason Grilli was officially placed on the 15-day disabled list. The good news? Sounds like Grilli didn’t hear the dreaded “pop” signaling a serious acute injury. GM Neil Huntington has also apparently insinuated that the injury might not be as bad as first feared (season-ending). However, Grilli was clearly suffering from some degree of discomfort at least four pitches before he was eventually yanked — I question what exactly the trainers were looking at. Either way, keep Grilli rostered.
Two things stand out while highlighting Jake Elmore as the American League outfielder this week. First, it should be noted that Elmore does not yet have outfield eligibility. That is in the works, as Elmore started in left field two days ago — and has four other appearances there — and the Houston Astros plan on keeping him in left field. He does already have shortstop eligibility in Yahoo! (just second base in CBS and ESPN) and given the difference in quantity as well as quality of middle infielders vs. outfielders, it would be wise to play Elmore as your MI even when he does gain OF eligibility.
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Let’s face it, even in leagues of 10 to 12 teams, the waiver wire is looking pretty bleak. Every once in a while you get to fight for some hit, young rookie like we all did for Christian Yelich the other day, but beyond that, it’s about fill-ins and stopgaps as opposed to long-term solutions. The middle infield is particularly ugly on this front so you have to dig deep. You still won’t find that perfect guy you’re looking for, but you might find someone who will stick for the duration of the season such as… Read the rest of this entry »
One thing I look at when mining for Draftstreet bargains is the “last 30 days” filter on Fangraphs leaderboards. While there has been much work done on the predictiveness (or lack thereof) of “streaks” (for one example, see The Book), you aren’t necessarily falling prey to the Gambler’s Fallacy when looking for guys who have good underlying peripherals. Four weeks is not a long time, but for many players, it may be enough to recognize fundamental shifts in skill (batting eye, contact rate, etc.). More importantly, since valuation of players inherently is skewed towards counting stats (in Draftstreet’s case, fantasy points per game), you can get a good sense of whether a “hot” or “cold” player’s value has been artificially inflated/suppressed and exploit arbitrages that way.
Some examples of the stats I look at?
The Pittsburgh Pirates have gone all in on Mark Melancon’s rebound. After a disastrous season with the Boston Red Sox, Melancon has returned to form. With Jason Grilli currently on the disabled list with a forearm injury, Melancon will be relied upon as the team’s closer. Due to Melancon’s failures last season, he developed a reputation as a pitcher who can’t handle pressure-packed situations. He should have no trouble dispelling that notion this season.
As we close in on the Major League trade deadline, non-contending teams are making moves to open up spots for their prospects. This is a blessing for deep league owners as finally there are more choices available to pick up besides fifth outfielders and the last man in the bullpen. Both the Astros and Cubs are looking toward the future and have recently introduced us to some new faces.
This morning’s Roto Riteup was penned while the author listened to a live rendition of Phil Collins’ “In the Air Tonight.”
On Today’s Agenda:
1. Marlins promote two youngsters
2. Chris Carpenter shuts it down
3. Mike Morse on the mend
• We still don’t know the extent of Jason Grilli’s injury and even though some of the early signs have been encouraging, he’s been placed on the 15-day DL. As we mentioned last night, Mark Melancon will take over as closer and it should be fun to watch Melancon take his 0.95/1.78/2.21 ERA/FIP/xFIP line from the eighth inning to the ninth. I’ve long agreed with Aaron Gleeman’s premise that “closing is a rollrole, not a skill” and Melancon owners should fully expect him to continue his great season just with saves instead of holds. As we find out more information on how much time Grilli is expected to miss we will be sure to inform you here. In the meantime, Melancon pitched a scoreless ninth today, something we might be saying a few more times here on out.
Episode 41
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Brett Talley. We discuss suspensions, trades and prospect call-ups.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.
You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.
Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)
Approximately 37 min of joyous analysis.
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