Roto Riteup: July 25, 2013
Today’s Roto Riteup was written while the author was debating the pros and cons of consuming an adult beverage directly thereafter.
On today’s agenda:
1. Taylor Guerrieri, meet Tommy John
2. Expect trades for Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios
3. James Paxton reins it in
4. A couple of arbitrary endpoints
Taylor Guerrieri, meet Tommy John
A first-round pick of the Rays in 2011, Guerrieri dominated in each of the past two seasons, but now he’ll be shut down for a full year to recover from TJ surgery. Guerreri was still a ways away from the majors thanks to the Rays’ careful handling of prospects, so now he likely won’t be able to see big league action until 2016, at the very earliest. He’s still a top prospect, so if you can stash him away in ottoneu leagues for a dollar, that’s a pretty solid deal.
Expect trades for Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios
While neither of the above mentioned gentlemen have been traded as of writing, odds are both will be donning new uniforms before August rolls around.
Soriano has been rumored to go to the Yankees, but I’m not so confident that the Yanks want to give anything up when the rest of their lineup would still be subpar. Other than the Yankees, it’s hard to figure out what contenders would be interested in the veteran outfielder, even with the Cubs agreeing to pay a virtually all of the money remaining on his contract.
Rios, on the other hand, should be coveted. The Pirates have been looking at the right-hander very seriously, and I think they end up pulling the trigger. Rios’ power numbers would drop rather drastically in Pittsburgh, but he’d still offer fantasy owners a good batting average and steals. Outside of Pittsburgh, it sounds like the Rangers may be in pursuit of Rios, and a move there would actually improve his overall fantasy value.
James Paxton reins it in
As recently as a May, many of us thought Paxton’s potential career as a starter was all but done due to a lack of control and command, but the imposing left-hander has really turned things around as of late. Witness: over his last seven starts, Paxton has walked less than 6% of the batters he’s faced, which comes out to just over 2.0 per nine innings of work. In that timeframe, he’s continued his high strikeout rate, and his ERA is at 2.65. While the Mariners do not have an immediate opening in their rotation, Paxton is showing that he deserves a shot to start in the bigs, and the Ms are eventually going to have to give him a chance to do so.
A couple of arbitrary endpoints
Jason Heyward, since the start of June: 39 G, 172 PA, 5 HR, 16 BB, 29 K; .279/.351/.448 (.317 BABIP)
Jayson Werth, since coming off the DL: 42 G, 172 PA, 10 HR, 20 BB, 37 K; .322/.401/.570 (.365 BABIP)
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
Any thoughts on Scott Kazmir, I cant believe he has hung onto his rotation spot all year, but he actually has been really good over the last month or so, is he someone you see keeping this up or do we see a major meltdown coming soon? His next two starts are scheduled to be against the White Sox and Marlins I believe.
I’ll say that no, he’s not in line for a meltdown. Even when his ERA was in the Mid-5s, his SIERA was under 4, and his bad surface stats have simply regressed to be more in-line with his good peripherals. His velocity has been good but rather inconsistent all season, though, but it seems that it is starting to stabilize. But that’s the one thing I’d keep an eye on since a velocity drop could be a sign of injury or other issues.
Been offered Melancon for Beachy (I have Grilli), but not sure whether or not I should take it. My other closers are Uehara, Jim Johnson, and Greg Holland. On one hand, I’d like to have the insurance policy in case Grilli’s injury proves to be serious. On the other hand, Beachy could be an impact player the entire second half, while Melancon proves to be a two week rental (if Grilli is ok).
Am I putting too much stock into Beachy’s return to the rotation? Should I go ahead and grab Melancon? I could lose lots of save points, and I only lead the league by 5.5 points. Any insight is appreciated.
You’ve got two killer closers and a meh closer who pitches for a team that provides him with lots of save opportunities (Johnson). You should be fine with those three. I can’t imagine you’ll lose many (if any) points by rolling with those three guys.
If you’re in a daily league I can see going for it, since Beachy’s BB/9 in the minors has been over 5.
Normally I would agree with you regarding the loss of save points with my closers, but three guys behind me in that category (separated by 2/3 saves)have four closers, so Melancon would give me a fourth, providing extra defense to stop those guys from passing me.
Do it. A bird in the hand … We have no idea when Beacy will return, in what capacity, and how he’ll perform. In the meantime, even if Grilli is back soon just keep Melancon around and he could have a more positive an impact on your ratios provided you hit your innings limit.
I think a lot of people have overestimated the change that Rios end up in a Pittsburgh uniform. The Pirates are still mindful of their budget and I think ultimately will go with a much more frugal trade, Nate Schierholtz.
Rios is more likely to end up in Texas, but there’s also the overlooked possibility that he is not moved at all. He still has a year remaining on his contract, The White Sox have a full year to cash in on him, and that flexibility has resulted in the team demanding a high price that no one has met so far. So while it is undoubtedly true the White Sox are actively seeing if they can get a big return for Rios, it is less certain they will get that, and if they don’t, they may just wait. I’m not suggesting that is the most likely outcome but it is a significant one.