When you’re a team that’s going absolutely nowhere in 2013 like the Houston Astros, this is exactly how it’s supposed to work. You pick up a decently effective reliever like Jose Veras on a reasonably-priced contract, you let him inflate his value by making him your Capital-C Closer, and then you trade him to a contender for a potentially useful prospect.

Yet while most of the baseball world will focus on what Veras can do to help the Detroit Tigers get to October, his departure creates a hole in the Houston bullpen. There’s suddenly a hole at closer for the Astros, and that means that fantasy owners have the rare opportunity to pick up free saves off the waiver wire. With apologies to Wesley Wright, who has pretty harsh platoon splits and might be on his way out the door as well, that man is likely to be Jose Cisnero. Who is he, and is he likely to be valuable in any way other than saves? Read the rest of this entry »

Coming into the season, I thought Matt Carpenter was a decent sleeper in deep leagues. In the Skip Schumaker mold, he might play a decent enough second base to make an empty batting average work. I bought him in a few deep leagues, and ranked him 35th among third basemen, and made a comment that I’d rank him around 22nd among second basemen. We had one comment about him.

Flash forward to our All-Star ranks. He ended up 12th in our second base rankings update, but was ranked anywhere from seventh to 25th by our various rankers. He sparked nine comments. That’s a lot of variance for a guy that has ten months with more than 20 plate appearances in the major leagues… and has hit over .290 in seven of them. How you think of him going forward is based on batted-ball theories, your league settings, and even how you ended up with him.

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While fantasy baseball doesn’t pretend to fully reflect on-the-field value for individual players, there’s always a strange disconnect when a player objectively compiles a quality season and it’s not captured in standard fantasy formats. Often, that difference can be ascribed to defensive value, which is not accounted for in fantasy, but occasionally, a player pops up who provides solid offensive value for their team yet is marginally useful in fantasy.

This year, Marco Scutaro of the San Francisco is a perfect example of the value disconnect.

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The Braves rotation, which had a solid five for the entire year up until last week, is facing a bit of turmoil in terms of who will stay and who will go. With Tim Hudson going down with an ankle injury, there are now six starters for five spots when Paul Maholm returns from the disabled list. In speaking with Fredi Gonzalez last week at Citi Field, he was rather adamant at Maholm returning to the rotation when healthy. Brandon Beachy is back tonight against the Rockies and unless he struggles he should receive enough of a chance to improve with time considering the Braves have a 8.5 game lead.
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We all know home runs are the best way to have a big fantasy day on the hitting side of things, but they’re really hard to predict. I have a little process I like to go through to try and identify the guys that are in the best situation to hit a home run, and it starts with park factors. Here on the site we have park factors broken down by handedness, which is a good place to start if you’re trying to pick home run hitters. Below is a chart showing which parks are most favorable to home runs for both left and right handed hitters. Read the rest of this entry »

Jake Peavy is about to join another team. Given Peavy’s status as the best pitcher on the market, the move makes sense for the Chicago White Sox. Peavy’s time with the franchise has been mixed. Early injuries defined Peavy’s first few years with the club. One of those injuries could define his career. Peavy ruptured a tendon that tied the latissimus dorsi muscle to his shoulder. The tendon completely detached from the bone. Peavy underwent the experimental surgery with no guarantee he would ever regain his form. While Peavy hasn’t come back the same player, it hasn’t stopped him from being effective.

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On Friday, Alfonso Soriano returned to the team he began his Major League career with, the New York Yankees, in exchange for cash and a pitching prospect. The knee-jerk reaction is probably that his fantasy value jumps given the perception we have of the Yankees offense of years past and the hitter’s haven their home park has played as. But is this true after diving into the relevant numbers? Let’s find out!

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The Roto Riteup pairs especially well with an A Perfect Circle inspired Pandora station.

On today’s agenda:
1. Biogenesis suspensions likely handed down this week
2. Albert Pujols likely done for the year
3. Jake Peavy will be traded before deadline
4. Derek Jeter returns with a bang

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• For those clinging to hope that John Axford will get the ninth inning role back for the Brew Crew this year… well… let’s say today didn’t go so hot for you. Coming in with a one-run lead in the eighth inning (Ron Roenicke would have gone to Jim Henderson in the ninth), Axford coughed up three hits and two runs, taking the “BS” and “L” as lovely parting gifts. Axford has curbed the walks recently (that’s good!) but has seen his already-below-career-average whiff rate continue to tumble (that’s bad!). His fastball velocity, while up a tick from his early season woes, remains down about one mph, although his SwStr% is right in line with his career norms. At this point, however, it’s fruitless to dissect his peripherals. Even though Axford had a great stretch until yesterday (0.32 ERA over 32 games), he still struggled gaining his manager’s confidence, and another outing like today may have “The Ax Man” right back in the doghouse.

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Episode 43
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Colin Zarzycki. We discuss an injured first baseman and a trio of cast members from the Evil Empire.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star)

Approximately 43 min of joyous analysis.

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