This year, 252 pitchers have started a game in the major leagues. Exactly 21 of them have maintained an average fastball velocity of 94 mph or greater in their starts. The list reads like a who’s who of current and potential aces: Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey, Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Jarred Cosart, Andrew Cashner, Zack Wheeler, Alfredo Figaro…okay, not all 21 come with heaps of accolades. Still, velocity is undoubtedly a prized commodity in starting pitchers, and anybody who threatens to someday join the 94+ starter club merits our attention.

I recently saw two pitchers who may someday join that club: Texas prospect Luke Jackson and Washington prospect A.J. Cole. Both righthanded pitchers are having excellent campaigns in High-A and have big velocity behind those numbers. Let’s take a closer look at what sort of potential these two flamethrowers have.

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If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for a while, there’s little doubt that you too haven’t fallen for a player and continue to go back to him year after year regardless of how many times he’s let you down. Whether you got the opportunity to watch him play and he impressed you or you owned him during a hot streak and was just able to follow him a little more closely than usual, there’s something about him that makes you believe that he is undoubtedly better than what his overall numbers are saying. You even find yourself making excuses for his poor performance, truly believing that had things just gone a little differently, then the guy could be a potential All-Star if you have a Lou Brown-ish sense of optimism. Nick Hundley is that guy for me and with Yasmani Grandal lost for the season and Hundley back in a starting role, I’m left with the question of whether or not to go back to that well just one more time. Read the rest of this entry »

Third base has to be the group with the most movement.

But mostly I love the ones that don’t move. Like Michael Young, ending a nine-player chain of movement. Yeah, he’s still Michael Young. And was Michael Young last time we ran the third base rankings. And then David Freese and Chris Johnson, okay, they’re older fantasy role-players that might not move much, but Trevor Plouffe and Juan Francisco are pretty much what we thought they were,too?

There are some nice names on this list. Could be the best in baseball, relatively, at the end of the year. At least on the infield.

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With baseball taking their annual mid-summer break, I thought maybe it was worth trying to read the tea leaves with some bullpens that might see some potential shakeups as we head towards the MLB and many fantasy league trade deadlines. Some guys might be sell-highs, some might be waiver wire stashes, but the key here is to target guys of interest before the real chatter starts to pick up around baseball in the next week or so.

Milwaukee Brewers: Perhaps one of the messiest closing situations of the first half. Francisco Rodriguez feels like he’s been around forever, but (somehow) he is only 31 (that’s only one year older than Brandon League for those keeping score at home). He’s enjoying a renaissance of sorts, too. His 1.19 ERA is certainly not sustainable (the man has a 99.1% LOB%!), his K% is up about 5% this year and his BB% has even dropped a tick from 10.2% to 9%. His velocity hasn’t moved much, and his SwStr%, while a bit up on 2012, is still well below his career average, so some K% regression might be coming. That said, no one can deny he hasn’t done an admirable job out of the Brewers pen.

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Chris Davis owners are experiencing an unexpected surprise this season. Instead of a possible corner infield or injury replacement, they have one of the top players in the league for pennies on the dollar. On the other end of the spectrum is B.J. Upton who Ron Shandler picked to have “40/40 upside”, but is in the discussion has the worst everyday player in the majors. Going into the 2013 season, Davis and Upton were projected to have similar production because of a uncertain skill set and the similarities ended then.

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My ideal set of rankings has input from both human and computer sources. In our rankings, we have one set of ranks that are built on projections, meaning that overall our rankings are 25% computer. That’s low for me. But I know that our other three human rankers also use the computer projections to varying degrees, so the number is probably closer to 50% computer, which I like.

But, ostensibly, we have one computer ranker. Jeff Zimmerman uses a proprietary mix of ZiPs and Steamer projections, and then takes the plate appearance projections from our depth charts. Every once in a while a player won’t be updated on the depth charts — human error — but if we stay vigilant, this mix should produce the best computer-generated rankings you can find. The addition of depth chart information can do a lot to undo the biggest flaw in projections: they don’t always know who has the job.

One remaining avenue to deal with with respect to the computer rankings is what to do with the missing plate appearances due to projected injury. Zimmerman has done a lot to advance the state of injury projections, and some of that is now built into the various projections he uses. We know that past DL stints predict future ones, for example. And that age is a heavy factor. But once those PAs and IPs are gone, they can be replaced through the waiver wire.

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So the arbitrary and altogether not true halfway point is upon us and this allows everyone time to reflect on their squads and your respective successes and failures. As I do so, I’m reminded of what seems like an annual realization: There’s quite a bit of talent that goes under-owned. I’ve often fantasized about being able to amass an all-waiver-wire team at the break to see how they would compete for the remainder of the season. So as we celebrate our All-Stars during this infuriating break, let us also recognize the unsung.

For simplicity, I’m just going to use Yahoo! ownership rates, and I’ll touch on the best available talent that is owned at a 50% or less clip.

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After setting the world on fire this past April with a .283/.388/.566 line with five home runs, things have slowed down considerably for Coco Crisp in recent weeks. A quick glance of his batting average doesn’t tell the full story (just as one would expect with batting average) as he repeated his .283 average in May. His May was shortened due to a stint on the disabled list, but for the first eight weeks of his season Crisp looked like a different hitter.

For the first time since 2009 — when he received all of 209 plate appearances — Crisp’s first half walk rate is in double digits, currently at a healthy 11.6%. With already nine home runs on the season he already has more homers this year than in two of the previous three seasons. He’s also managed to trim his strikeout rate down to a tidy 10.6%, the 15th best mark in qualified baseball. In a somewhat recent podcast the present author stated that selling high on Crisp may be a good idea. The question hung in mind of the author and thus Crisp became a subject that required further delving in to.
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While last year’s MLB Draft probably brought a bit more talent to the New York Penn League, the short season league is still ripe with top picks, returning guys showing improvement, and players that are emerging into the spotlight. The crop is more interesting this year.

This is a review of the league through twenty games, and there are similarities in overall team performance compared to 2012. One of them is the Hudson Valley Renegades and Tri-City Valley Cats once again fielding some of the most solid talent in the league, talent that’s rising to the challenge.

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It’s been an improbable ride for Jose Quintana. After signing with the White Sox as a minor-league free-agent last season, Quintana held his own in 22 starts in the majors. While nothing about his game stood out, and the advanced stats were bearish on his ability to repeat, it was nonetheless a win for the club. Quintana entered 2013 as the team’s fourth starter, a position he was capable of filling given his skill set. But a the midway point, Quintana has emerged as the team’s second-best starter. While that may not be impressive given the club’s injuries, it’s clear that Quintana has taken a significant step forward.

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