When Jose Valverde and Kevin Gregg rose from their respective graves to close games, who thought Gregg would be the more prudent acquisition?

• Jose Valverde is still the Tigers closer. According to his manager, Jim Leyland “we’re going to use Jose Valverde until we decide Jose Valverde can’t do it or we have someone else better, just like everyone else does.” That may not sound like the strongest praise for Papa Grande, but the closer he shall remain. While Valverde throws a fastball and a splitter, performance wise, Jose Valverde is essentially a one-pitch pitcher nowadays. In 2013, his fastball has been worth 1.5 runs above average, per 100 pitches while his splitter has been worth -9.67 runs above average, per 100 pitches. Considering Valverde’s getting strikeouts at a below average rate overall and isn’t fooling anyone with his splitter, I don’t expect any better results out of Valverde this season, in fact I might expect worse. Joaquin Benoit (2.60 FIP) has been great this season but the Tigers don’t seem to want him closing and if a move is made to replace Valverde, I still feel it might come outside of the organization. Nevertheless, Valverde will receive the next opportunities, and needless to say, this situation could be very fluid soon.

As I click publish on this post, Valverde entered the game with a four run lead, walked the leadoff batter, got a fortuitous double play and then issued a HBP. 

Read the rest of this entry »

Andrelton Simmons may be one of my favorite players in the league, but I do not find any reason for him to be owned in nearly half of Yahoo! leagues at this point in time. I was down on Simmons from a fantasy perspective entering the year, he just does not have the base stealing acumen or power to be as useful as other options in fantasy formats.
Read the rest of this entry »

There aren’t many reasons to watch the Seattle Mariners. For several years now there was a singular reason to do so and it had something to do with a guy who goes by “King.” But in 2013, there’s an encore for every Felix Hernandez gem and his name is Hisashi Iwakuma.

Seattle is the kind of media market that ensures players fly under the radar (see Martinez, Edgar). So there are probably plenty of you that look up from your spreadsheets and see a 7-1 record with a 1.79 ERA and 0.82 WHIP and wonder how you could have completely forgotten about this guy.

Read the rest of this entry »

When the popular, based-on-actual-events cinematic classic Revenge of the Nerds and it’s less-appealing set of sequels failed to break down the barrier that existed between jocks and nerds, it seemed that all hope was lost. But when fantasy football went mainstream and those very same jocks were looking at things like yards per carry and target percentage, it appeared as though a breakthrough had been made. And when many of those jocks spilled into the fantasy baseball world and began studying things like BABIP and strikeout rates, you could almost hear a chorus of angels sing as the only thing being stuffed into lockers these days were jackets and copies of The Book. The bullying had finally stopped, or so we had thought. But just as in life when one bully is finally brought down, another seeks to take his place and us nerds who find statistics and the fantasy game so appealing are being victimized once again. And the worst part of it, is that it is being done by many of our own. Read the rest of this entry »

When picking hitters, the quality and handedness of the opposing pitcher are probably the most important considerations aside from whether the hitter himself is any good and likely to be in the lineup. And it makes sense to be very mindful of the opposing pitcher; the hitter will probably face the starter for most of his plate appearances that day. But starting pitchers are averaging 5.89 innings per start this year, which means that a full third of most games is handled by other pitchers to which we give no consideration. When you consider the fact that most pitchers you choose to start hitters against are below average, the bullpen probably factors into closer to four innings of each game as opposed to just three.

I decided to figure out which bullpens are the most hitter friendly in Draftstreet contests. To do this I had to figure out how many points each reliever has allowed to this point in Draftstreet contests. I pulled all of their batting against statistics, added up all the positive scoring events for hitters and then subtracted all the negative scoring events for hitters. The formula was this: (1B + (2B x 2) + (3B x 3) + (HR x 4) + (HBP x 0.75) + (BB x 0.75) + (R x 1.5) + (RBI x 1.5) + (SB x 2) + (SAC x .75)) – ((K x 0.75) + (GDP x 0.75) + CS). Read the rest of this entry »

Right-hander Jarrod Parker was one of my biggest sleepers coming into the season. He quietly compiled a 3.47 ERA with a 3.43 FIP last year, and I predicted the strikeout rate would jump in 2013, resulting in even higher value for fantasy owners.

After a 7.36 ERA in the month of April, though, many owners quickly jumped off the bandwagon and dumped Parker on the waiver wire. His numbers were ugly across the board. The strikeouts were down, the walks were up and home runs were a legitimate problem. Opposing batters were hitting .350 off the 24-year-old starter, and he had allowed a staggering 43 hits in only 29.1 innings.

However, in recent starts, Parker has turned it around in a big way.

Since the calendar flipped to May, the right-hander has compiled a stellar 2.85 ERA in his last eight starts. His strikeout rate has enjoyed a modest bump, but the most significant improvement lies in his walk rate. He’s no longer doling out 4.91 walks per nine innings, as he did in April. Instead, his walk rate in May and June has dropped to 2.68 BB/9 — and his opponent batting average has plummeted to .199 over the same stretch.

It’s important to note Parker has greatly benefited from a .200 BABIP in his last eight starts, which is certainly a contributing factor to his turn-around. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect a sub-3.00 ERA from him the remainder of the season. But if the walks stay down and the strikeout numbers (at least) hover around his career-average, he should continue to be very effective.

The real question remains, though. Will Jarrod Parker’s strikeout rate increase to match his swinging-strike rate?

His 9.9% swinging-strike rate currently ranks 25th in all of baseball, among qualified starters. That’s better than James Shields, Shelby Miller, Chris Sale and Clay Buchholz. Yet his strikeout rate continues to underperform. He compiled a 6.95 K/9 strikeout rate a year ago with a 9.9% swinging-strike rate, and with an identical swinging-strike rate this season, his K-rate is only 6.18 K/9.

It makes sense to think his strikeout rate would increase, based on those numbers. He gets guys to chase out of the strike zone and misses plenty of bats. He even had solid strikeout numbers in the minors. At this point, though, it’s becoming a trend for Parker. Perhaps he’s just going to be a guy whose strikeout rate never matches his peripheral numbers — much like right-hander Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda has a career 9.9% SwStr%, yet owns a career 6.71 K/9 strikeout rate.

I’m not sure what to make of the large differential, but it is clear that Parker can be effective without the gaudy strikeout numbers. He showed that last year and has shown it in his last eight starts. If his home-run rate comes back down to earth — and it should, pitching in Oakland — he should be a solid fantasy starter throughout the remainder of the season.

And Jarrod Parker remains criminally underowned, despite his recent string of success on the mound. He’s only owned in 65.7% of leagues, meaning he could be a lovely waiver-wire pickup for many owners looking to bolster their pitching staff.

Earlier this month, I noticed something fun while playing around with the “last calendar year” sort in the FanGraphs leaderboards:

Over the last calendar year, Coco Crisp and Albert Pujols have an identical .362 wOBA. Um, wow. fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p…

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) June 2, 2013

Pujols is hardly what he once was, but still. Coco Crisp!

Crisp’s been pretty hot over the last week, and as the “last calendar year” timeframe has moved on to no longer include a brief cold spell from last June, Crisp looks even better — he’s 20th in baseball in wOBA, right in between Carlos Gonzalez & Carlos Santana. That’s pretty impressive company, and it only looks better when you go by WAR, where he sits at 17th.

You look at the other names on that list, and they make sense. There’s Miguel Cabrera, and Andrew McCutchen, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, and so on. They’re the elite class of the game. Crisp, meanwhile, turns 34 this fall. He was once traded straight up for reliever Ramon Ramirez, who was DFA’d this week. (He was also once traded for Chuck Finley, which is notable in no other way than it allows me to work Chuck Finley into a column.) He wasn’t even guaranteed regular playing time in an Oakland outfield which added Chris Young to Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Reddick, & Seth Smith.

And now, suddenly, he’s a star, one who ranks among the top 15 fantasy outfielders in ESPN’s Player Rater? Read the rest of this entry »

Sadly for all of you, the Roto Riteup continues to be all mine until Sunday.

On today’s agenda:
1. Troy Tulowitzki out 4-6 weeks
2. Tulo’s replacements
3. Stephen Strasburg is up and throwing
4. Derek Jeter is allowed to run

Read the rest of this entry »

• Tom Wilhelmsen had a night to forget yesterday against the Astros, blowing his fourth save of the year. By the time the game was over, Wilehlmsen gave up five earned runs on three hits and two walks. Sure, the relievers who replaced Wilhelmsen could have done a better job with their inherited runners, but it’s also the fifth time in the last eight outings that Wilhelmsen has given up at least one run. Wilhelmsen’s ERA now stands at 3.77 and although his FIP looks more impressive at 3.17, he’s yet to allow a fly ball to go over the wall making his 4.46 xFIP more indicative of how he’s pitching at the moment.  Last year Wilhelmsen had  a 9.87 K/9 and 10.7 SwStr% and in 2013 those have dipped to 6.59 K/9 with a 9.7% SwStr%.

Wilhelmsen’s velocity isn’t to blame either as he’s averaged 95.9 mph on his fastball, right in line with his career average. However, his control of it (and/or all of his repertoire) sure has changed, with Wilhelmsen putting up a 4.71 BB/9 this year, significantly higher than the 3.29 BB/9 in 2012. After the game, Eric Wedge said that Wilhelmsen is their closer but from listening to the clip, it doesn’t sound like his job is too secure, and they may need to have a “conversation” about it. The problem for the Mariners is there aren’t many great options behind Wilhelmsen to close but I’d say Carter Capps and Charlie Furbush are the best bets. Furbush has turned himself into a stirkeout throwing lefty with an ability to get opposite handed hitters out, but my guess for Wilhelmsen’s replacement would be Capps. Although his numbers aren’t particularly great, the big 6’5” righty can strike guys out (10.93 K/9) with his high 90s heat while showing some solid control (2.25 BB/9). As Wedge said, Wilhelmsen is still closing, but this is certainly a situation worth monitoring and I’d snag Capps if I had an open spot.  Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 25
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a pitcher who may be worth a preemptive bid and a disappointing young shortstop.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star).

Approximately 35 min of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS