Steve Saude has been looking at match up data to forecast strikeout rate. His posts are very advanced, somewhat confusing, and have lots of pretty graphs. You can read them here and here, and I suggest that you do. The main thing I took away was that batters and pitchers contribute equally to the outcome of his expected K% formula. Strikeouts are a big deal when picking daily pitchers, so we should be looking at how much the opposing team strikes out against pitchers of the same handedness to try and pick pitchers’ with high strikeout totals. We all look at a pitcher’s match up, but we should be looking at the K% of the opposing team in addition to their overall offensive performance. Below are each teams K% versus both left and right handed pitching along with their wRC+. Read the rest of this entry »

Corey Kluber is the latest pitcher to go from journeyman to stud. The 27-year-old had just 12 starts in the majors prior to 2013. After a weak spring performance, he didn’t even break camp with the Cleveland Indians. It took an injury to Brett Myers to finally give Kluber a shot. Through 10 starts, things look pretty promising. After tossing eight shutout innings against the Washington Nationals Sunday, Kluber now has a 3.15 FIP and 2.95 xFIP on the season. That’s one heck of a performance from a pitcher who had started the last four seasons in Triple-A.

Read the rest of this entry »

Although we have done a pretty good job determining what underlying statistics can combine to formulate a strong expected strikeout percentage metric, unfortunately the same cannot be said for a pitcher’s walk percentage. Though one would assume the majority of a pitcher’s control skill would show up in his ability to throw strikes, whether by throwing first pitch strikes or throwing the ball inside the strike zone, that just isn’t the case. But of course that doesn’t mean that this data is useless.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today being June 17 represents a unique day in sports and cultural history. ESPN’s 30-for-30 did an incredible job handling the events of June 17, 1994.

On today’s agenda:
1. Alex Cobb to the 7-day disabled list
2. Josh Reddick is heating up
3. Two debuts tomorrow
4. Sonny Gray’s Triple-A exploits

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 26
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features former fantasy manager for Baseball Prospectus and current writer for Fantistics and DFSEdge, Derek Carty. We discuss yet another top prospect call-up, as well as a trio of struggling lefties.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter and tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Intro by DJ Sinton (no, contrary to popular belief, I do not moonlight as a rap star).

Approximately 41 min of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

TWIB – This Weekend In Bullpens:

• Things are getting very interesting in Detroit. After Jim Leyland previously stated that Jose Valverde was their closer, Joaquin Benoit got the four-out save today, his fourth of the year. This time Jim Leyland said “I’m going to do whatever I think it takes for the Tigers to win the game, and today I felt like my best option was Benoit.” I’m sure all of Detroit and Benoit owners everywhere would agree Benoit was the best option, but whether or not Leyland will think Benoit is the best option next time, nobody really knows. If Leyland is going to do whatever it takes for the Tigers to win, Benoit will be the guy but he has a love affair with Valverde. There relationship is on the rocks and the moment and Leyland could look Benoit’s way but without an official word, we can’t say Valverde is out of the picture. I’d run to pick up Benoit and would consider this an unofficial closer-by-committee until we hear more from Leyland or can see how the next few games play out.

Read the rest of this entry »

I had a bad day in this space yesterday. I admit it. I have bad days, sometimes too often. Sometimes I get in the zone and roll off a few good ones in a row. Such is life in the fantasy world, and it’s why a lot of people prefer the long-game of seasonal leagues. In those leagues, some of the daily variance goes away because there are far fewer decisions to be made.

Daily leaguers, though, crave that renewed challenge every morning to try and beat the system and beat each other. It’s a part of what makes formats like DraftStreet or Fangraphs The Game so fun and addicting – if you win, you feel the high and want to keep rolling, and if you lose there’s a chance to bounce back the next day.

In that way, daily fantasy leagues are a lot like actual baseball, though it’s certainly much more difficult than “you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball.” Those who avoid daily leagues? Lollygaggers.
Read the rest of this entry »

As Dreamhack Summer marches on to Group Stage #2 and #3, the baseball season also marches on. For the curious, this is what Dreamhack is at its finest.

On today’s agenda:
1. John Lackey with another quality start
2. Welcome back, Johnny Cueto
3. B.J. Upton finds his power
4. A beacon of hope from Tommy Hanson
Read the rest of this entry »

Starting this week, we’ll put the results at the bottom of the post rather than the top. Also, if you have any other ideas, please submit them below for consideration.

Here are this week’s recommendations, with ownership figures help from @jakeallen47:

Ubaldo Jimenez – 12.6% ESPN/19% Yahoo! – v. KC (.299 team wOBA), v. MIN (.304)

It’s been very clear that there’s been two different Jimenez’ this season. The road Jimenez has been solid, with a 2.77 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and .673 OPS allowed. The home Jimenez has been an absolute disaster, with a 7.53 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and .826 OPS allowed. Read the rest of this entry »

Chris Sale struck out 14 Houston Astros yesterday and took the loss. He gave up just two runs in eight innings and, because it’s worth repeating, he struck out 14 batters. And he took the loss. Ugh.

So is this a lesson that we should throw up our hands at pitcher wins? Well, yeah, that’s been the case for some time. But they matter in fantasy, particularly in daily leagues – in DraftStreet, a win is worth 1.5 points and a loss is worth -0.75. Sale was a huge point getter last night, but he could have got an additional 2.25 if the Sox could, you know, hit.

So what’s a daily leaguer to do? You could avoid pitchers on bad teams altogether, skipping White Sox pitchers, Angels pitchers, Astros pitchers? No. You just can’t limit your player pool like that. And a guy like Sale was still worth a heck of a lot.
Read the rest of this entry »