Archive for May, 2013

Aggressively Go After Brian McCann

After making the All-Star game in every full season of his career, Brian McCann ran into an injury plagued 2012 that saw him post a wRC+ of just 86, 30 points lower than his career average. To top it off, he only just returned from shoulder surgery yesterday and he is in his last year under contract with Atlanta. As the former perennial all-star is set to hit free agency, another bump in the road has crossed in front of him in Evan Gattis. McCann may still be headed for a big pay day, but he will have to battle for playing time when the Braves are healthy with what looks to be the team’s catcher of the future.
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Cutting Bait: Nothing Beats a Good Dump

As we’ve discussed a few times already this year, knowing when to officially cut bait seems to be a lost art form in the fantasy world. All too often, owners hold onto a sell-high candidate for too long and by the time they get around to shopping him, he’s in the midst of an expected slump and every owner declines to deal because they know you’re going to drop the guy soon enough anyway. Either that or you’ve senselessly fallen in love with the hot start and your false hope causes you to endure weeks of 0-for’s, foolishly thinking he’s going to get back to that early-season dreamland where you first met. Whatever the case may be, it’s important for you to recognize when it’s time to say goodbye to a player as your team will only suffer each and every year until you do. So to help with your fantasy regularity, here’s a few players you should consider dumping to lighten your load. Read the rest of this entry »


Lee, Ruf, Salazar: Mining the Minors

In this week’s edition: A former first-rounder the Dodgers may need to turn too sooner than they would’ve hoped; a power bat who could return to the majors once his club packs it in; and an under-the-radar electric arm off to a phenomenal start.

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Taking a Look at Changes in Contact Rate

Back in 2009, Eric Seidman wrote a piece here that looked into when samples become reliable for certain statistics. The piece was based off work done by Pizza Cutter. You can read the piece here for a full explanation of how the conclusions were reached, but below is a list showing how many PAs it takes for a statistic to become reliable. Read the rest of this entry »


Roto Riteup: May 10, 2013

Today’s Roto Riteup is being written while the present author enjoys the latest album from The Wonder Years named The Greatest Generation. If any reader enjoys pop punk, then adding The Wonder Years to your music library is essential.

On today’s agenda:
1. The return of Michael Bourn
2. Replacing A.J. Pierzynski
3. Surprising starts from yesterday
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Bullpen Report: May 9, 2013

Mariano Rivera notched his 13th save on the season and the 621st of his career this afternoon as the Yankees clipped the Rockies, 3-1. The future Hall-of-Famer got two quick outs off the bats of Wilin Rosario and Nolan Arenado before plunking the third batter he faced, Jordan Pacheco. But the potential tying run, Josh Rutledge, grounded out to Jayson Nix to seal Colorado’s fate. The closer’s age and last year’s injury are clearly not a factor. Mariano is Mariano. Arguably (hardly) the best closer ever.

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RotoGraphs Audio: The Sleeper and the Bust 5/9/13

Episode 10
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs editor Eno Sarris. We discuss a pitcher who recently recorded his first win since 2010, along with a bunch of deep league names.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 35 min of joyous analysis.


MASH Report (5/9/13)

This week I will examine three pitchers coming off the DL and the 10 starting pitchers with the lowest 2013 Zone% values.

Chris Capuano (calf) is back from the DL and his first start was far from stellar, 4 IP, 2K, 2BB, 2HR, 6 runs. His velocity seemed fine.

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Scheming For Relief: Rosenthal, Blevins and Delabar

Fantasy baseballers in non-holds leagues often look past middle relievers who don’t appear to be in line for saves. But these late-inning arms can provide support in the wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and even K/BB categories for those in alternative formats.

Here are three middle relievers who could help you stabilize a few categories in your standard non-holds leagues.

All ownership percentages reflect Yahoo! leagues.

Trevor Rosenthal | Cardinals | 15% – Trevor Rosenthal became a household name late last season when his rocket of an arm first went on display in the bigs. Based on this showing, industry analysts quickly pegged the fireballer as the favorite to succeed Jason Motte for ninth-inning duties in St. Louis when Motte went down with what would eventually be a torn ulnar collateral ligament. And Mike Matheny provided Rosenthal with the opportunity to do so, but he blew two saves in his first four outings, resulting in Edward Mujica’s ascension into the Cardinals’ closing role.

Despite the fact that Rosenthal may not get the nod in the ninth frame doesn’t suggest the right-hander isn’t valuable for fantasy purposes. Sure, a large portion of the 15% of leagues that own shares of Rosenthal are likely to be holds leagues where he carries the most value, but it’s time for owners in all leagues to consider adding the 23-year-old for steady production in the strikeout and ratio categories.

Rosenthal’s 30.9 K% isn’t exactly Kimbrelian, but it places him among the top 25 relievers with at least 10 innings on the hill — and it reeks of upside. His current 2.95 ERA (2.85 FIP) and 1.31 WHIP also leave a lot to be desired — especially if you’re adding him for ratio support — but it appears he’s made some strides as of late. In Rosenthal’s last six trips to the bump (5.2 IP), he’s posted a 0.00 ERA with a 0.76 WHIP and a 33% K%. Seems helpful, right? It is.

Parlay the fireballer’s recent success with the understanding that he has just 41 major league innings under his belt and he has the potential to be a future closer.

Jerry Blevins | Athletics | 4%  – Blevins, the Athletics’ 29-year-old southpaw, is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA (1.78 FIP), a 0.71 WHIP and a 27.9 K% in just over 18 innings of work. He’s missing bats and inducing weak contact at career rates — 12.5% SwStr% and 25% IFFB% respectively — meaning his stuff is either better than ever or he’s due for some regression. In addition to the spike in swings-and-misses and weak contact, Blevins has earned more fly ball outs in ‘13 (50% FB%) versus his career (43.7% FB%), but luckily, most are falling in the field of play (4.2% HR/FB — also a career best).

Blevins may get bit by the regression bug sooner-or-later, but in the meantime, allow him to provide your team with some scab wins, strikeouts and ratio support. Leaving a middle reliever like Blevins in your starting lineup is a relatively low-risk strategy to gain an edge in those categories since they pitch so few innings per week.

Steve Delabar | Blue Jays | 2% – Speaking of scab wins, Delabar is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA (2.83 FIP) and a 28.2% K%. Fantasy owners love the three scabs wins, but we can’t expect them going forward since there is a bit of luck associated with them. The downfall for the 29-year-old is an unimpressive 16.5% BB% — the root of a 1.35 WHIP — but sometimes we have to take the good with the bad. Streaming middles like Delabar in deeper rotisserie or head-to-head formats is an intriguing strategy for owners looking for a few extra strikeouts and some possible wins.


Francisco Liriano & Matt Garza: Waiver Wire

Picking up injured players can be a risky proposition in fantasy. But depending on your league, taking a shot on an injured guy may be the only way to grab upside without having to pay a significant price. While picking up prospects is sometimes the more enticing strategy, there’s no way of knowing when that player will get their opportunity. Narrowing your search to injured veterans is risky, but at least you’re picking up players who are close to getting guaranteed playing time. Both Francisco Liriano and Matt Garza are close to making their 2013 debuts, and should be targeted by owners who need pitching, and don’t mind taking a few risks.

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