John Lackey | Boston Red Sox | @ Tampa Bay on Tuesday

Adding John Lackey is somewhat like having a huge bowl of ice cream 30 minutes before bed. You hate yourself and know it’s not really good for you. But you can’t help yourself can you? It’s hard to turn down a few scoops of your favorite flavor, and it’s hard to turn down a name you recognize that is currently attached to a 2.82 ERA and 3.23 xFIP.

Lackey has those numbers thanks to a 24.7% K% and 7.2% BB%. He can probably maintain a walk rate like that, but the K rate will likely regress. His swinging strike rate isn’t terrible at 8.1%, but he’s not going to strike out more than a batter per inning at that rate. And his velocity isn’t quite what it used to be. Expect him to settle in the 18%-19% range.

The matchup with Tampa actually isn’t great. They started slow, but they’re currently 4th in the league in wRC+ and lead the league in that category so far in May. But even if you decide to pass on Lackey on Tuesday, he’s worth picking up as a flier. Read the rest of this entry »

Derek Holland is starting to figure things out. After four up-and-down seasons, the 26-year-old lefty is pitching like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Holland has always shown the ability to surprise, but what he’s done this year is even more unexpected. Through 49.2 innings, Holland’s 2.40 FIP ranks ninth among qualified starters. Even when you adjust for his home run rate, Holland’s 3.28 xFIP says his performance is legit. Holland is relying on the same five pitches he’s used his entire career, but he’s utilizing the slider more often. The result of that change has been driving Holland’s success this season.

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Since I develop my own player forecasts, I am always looking for better ways to use the advanced metrics to project the more basic ones. You may remember the quest Chad Young and I engaged in earlier this year to predict HR/FB ratio using batted ball distance. That didn’t go as far as I had hoped, but it did highlight the value of the batted ball distance data. When I started doing the research for my Contact% articles last week, I figured there might be a combination of plate discipline metrics, including Contact%, that does a good job of estimating a hitter’s strikeout percentage. I was right. Of course, this is nothing earth shattering, as Jeff Zimmerman reminded me that he looked at that very same concept late last season, which clearly had already escaped my brain. Since I had the data and regressions done, I decided to do a version 2.0 of formulating a hitter’s expected K%.

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• Jose Valverde picked an unfortunate time to allow his first base hit of 2013 as he took his first blown save of the season against the Indians. Even after today, his ERA sits at a respectable 1.50, but his strikeout and walk numbers appear to be no different than last year. In 2012 his SwStr% absolutely fell off a cliff and it’s even lower this year. His splitter, once his out pitch and an offering he used more than half of time, is now only accounting for 12% of his deliveries. If his fastball velocity doesn’t improve from his 92.6 mph figure, it will represent the fifth straight year in decline. If it sounds like I am down on Valverde, I am, but the good news for his fantasy owners is that Papa Grande has job security, at least until he has a few more days like today. Sell the “closer” tag if you can, but otherwise know that the saves you get might be coming at the expense of your other ratios. I find it highly unlikely he survives the season as closer.

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Episode 11
Today’s episode of The Sleeper and the Bust stars yours truly and features RotoGraphs contributor Ben Duronio. We discuss a plethora of pitchers coming off strong outings, along with a look at the concept of buying high.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @mikepodhorzer or @enosarris on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Approximately 39 min of joyous analysis.

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Yesterday night Daric Barton hit a home run. The present author can virtually guarantee that every individual who was then wearing a Barton shirsey within a 50 miles radius of the author’s location stood up and danced. That the author is almost assuredly the only individual within said 50 mile radius to own a Barton shirsey is not a relevant point of fact.

On today’s agenda:
1. Chris Young aims for midweek come back
2. Ike Davis will bat clean up
3. A big night for Matt Dominguez
4. What to make of Adam Lind
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Ernesto Frieri notched his third save in as many days this afternoon in a 3-2 Angels victory over the White Sox. The Angels’ ninth-inning man faced one over the minimum, surrendering a one-out single to Dayan Viciedo, en route to his seventh save on the year. In his last three trips to the hill, Frieri is 3-for-3 in save opportunities with a 0.00 ERA, a 0.54 WHIP and a 7.0 K/BB. Additionally, the right-hander is a perfect 4-for-4 in May and has lowered his ERA from 2.19 to 1.59.

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No album or band recommendations today, back to pure baseball.

On today’s agenda:
1. Jayson Werth to the disabled list
2. Garrett Jones’s night at the plate
3. Adam LaRoche’s hitting streak
4. Kyuji Fujikawa returns to action
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Cole Hamels has been among the finest starting pitchers going on six seasons now. In fantasy baseball terms, during that time span, Hamels has been a beast in most formats. He’s 7th overall in wins with 82, second in WHIP with a stingy 1.13, and 6th in strikeouts with well over 1100. And in the last two seasons, he’s seemingly taken his game to a new level, compiling 9 wins over replacement between 2011-2012. But so far this year, his results haven’t been what owners have been looking for. A 4.40 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a 7.49 K/9 rate are all well behind his career averages.

Is he hurt? Is he on the path to mediocrity? Did he fake his birth certificate?

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Let’s first start with results:

Week 1: 1-3, 30 IP, 3.00 ERA, 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.13 WHIP (Kevin Slowey, Ubaldo Jimenez, Joe Saunders)
Week 2: 2-3, 25.1 IP, 5.69 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP (Joe Blanton, James McDonald, Eric Stults)
Week 3: 1-2, 32 IP, 3.66 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 1.22 WHIP (Wade Davis, Carlos Villanueva, Patrick Corbin)
Week 4: 2-1, 22 IP, 6.14 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.95 WHIP (Julio Teheran, Jason Hammel, Garrett Richards)
Week 5*: 1-1, 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4.9 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 1.09 WHIP (Scott Diamond, Nick Tepesch, Andrew Cashner)

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Total: 7-10, 127.2 IP, 4.16 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.41 WHIP

Last week got pretty ugly, though the strikeouts were certainly a welcome addition in light of what this crew has accomplished so far this week.  Read the rest of this entry »