Archive for April, 2013

Francisco Cervelli: Surprisingly Useful Fantasy Catcher

When the Yankees let Russell Martin walk as a free agent this offseason, their catching crop became fantasy irrelevant. Chris Stewart hasn’t hit a lick in his career and the team thought so little of Francisco Cervelli that he was the guy they sent to Triple-A when they acquired Stewart last year. Considering their track records, it was no surprise the Yankees ranked 29th in our Catcher Power Rankings.

Manager Joe Girardi indicated before the season that his catching plan called for “fairly even split” in terms of playing time between Stewart and Cervelli. Two weeks into the season, that plan is out the window. The 27-year-old Cervelli has managed a .360/.500/.520 (189 wRC+) batting line with seven walks and one strikeout (!) early on, so the “play the hot hand strategy” has prevailed. He’s started nine of the team’s eleven games this far, including all three against the division rival Orioles this past weekend.

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Reasons to Believe in Brandon Crawford

Maybe I am alone in this, but it feels like MI is painfully thin in ottoneu leagues this year. I know MI is always a bit shallow, but this year just seems like we’ve taken things to another level. I have no explanation for that but, particularly in the original league, it seems our auctions of late have been a litany of MI we know provide almost no fantasy value (mixed in with the regular dose of reliever-chasing).

And one of the players on that list is currently the most auctioned player in all of ottoneu – Brandon Crawford. For those of you looking to add a MI – replacing an injured Jose Reyes, grabbing a backup to fill in a game or two here and there, or just desperate for games played at the position – Crawford’s torrid spring and only-slightly-cooler start look awfully appealing right now, don’t they?

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Is the Aaron Hicks Experiment Over?

After the Twins traded incumbent center fielder Denard Span to the Nationals in the offseason, it was assumed before spring training began that Darin Mastroianni would take over the job. Instead, the team couldn’t ignore the spring training performance of Aaron Hicks, as the 23-year-old hit .370/.407/.644 with three steals. Haven’t we established that spring training stats are 99% noise? How come teams still make decisions based on them? That was enough to push Hicks ahead of Mastroianni on the depth chart and open the season as the starting center fielder.

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Roto Riteup: April 16, 2013

Sports and sporting events are meant to be a distraction from the daily life. Even with teams that might not win it all, they still offer an escape in the form of entertainment. Sports should not be a cruel reminder of just how fragile of an existence we all share on this little floating rock in space. My heart goes out to all affected by the tragedy in Boston.

On today’s agenda:
1. Peter Bourjos‘ value
2. Kurt Suzuki’s boost in playing time and value
3. A cup of coffee for Oswaldo Arcia

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Bullpen Report: April 15, 2013

• With Joel Hanrahan out with a hamstring injury Andrew Bailey came on for his first save opportunity of the year and proceeded to blow the lead, allowing an RBI single to Ben Zobrist who knocked in Desmond Jennings after he singled and stole second. Fortunately for Bailey owners, the Red Sox scored in the bottom half of the inning, getting Bailey the win. Koji Uehara pitched a scoreless eighth inning and while he might be the best reliever of the bunch in Boston the Red Sox don’t want him to pitch on consecutive days too often, limiting his potential to close games consistently, if at all this season. Still, as I mentioned previously, with a 14.33 K/BB last year and a career 2.67 FIP as a reliever, Uehara can be a useful fantasy player for many teams. Bailey may have blown the save, but he’s still pitched great this year (0.74 FIP/15.19 K/9) and significantly better than Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan hasn’t lost the job, but if he doesn’t pitch well upon his return, it won’t be his for much longer. In spite of today’s results, pick up Bailey if you need saves.

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A Silver Lining From the Jose Reyes Injury

When Jose Reyes slid awkwardly into second base in Kansas City on Friday night and twisted his ankle badly enough that it will keep him out until July, it wasn’t just Toronto Blue Jays fans who feared that a season already off to a poor start was quickly about to get worse. Fantasy players who had spent a high draft pick or a sizable amount of auction dollars on Reyes were suddenly left with a giant hole to fill, and few options at a shallow position to fill it. Using a random 12-team ESPN league I’m in as an example, the best available shortstops on the waiver wire today are Everth Cabrera, Pete Kozma, and Marwin Gonzalez. That’s a pretty big step down from Reyes no matter how you slice it.

However, this isn’t all bad news from a fantasy perspective. Rather than simply slide the next man in to replace Reyes, as the Yankees have done with Eduardo Nunez while Derek Jeter is out, the Blue Jays are planning to engage in a game of musical chairs that will shuffle a few pieces of their lineup into greater fantasy relevance. Read the rest of this entry »


Where Is Gyorko’s Power?

One of the most popular sleeper picks this spring was San Diego’s Jedd Gyorko. A third baseman by trade, he’s expected to be the Padres’ primary second baseman once Chase Headley returns from the disabled list, so the positional flexibility will benefit fantasy owners.

The primary reason owners have been drawn to Gyorko is his potential to offer plus-power at the second base position. He launched 30 home runs last season between Double-A and Triple-A, culminating in an impressive .413 wOBA with 24 home runs in 92 Triple-A games. Gyorko backed it up with four long balls this spring and the bandwagon had little room room for additional passengers. It was already filled to the brim.

Early this season, however, the 24-year-old rookie has gotten off to a bit of a slow start. He’s hitting .244/.347/.317 in 49 plate appearances, and while his 14.3% walk rate provides value in OBP leagues, his much-hyped power potential has been notably absent. He currently has an .073 ISO and hasn’t hit a home run on the season.

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Nate Schierholtz Is On Fire

After going one for five with a home run Sunday against his old team, Nate Schierholtz has his seasonal line up to .343/.410/.629. That qualifies as ‘on fire,’ especially for a dude with a .272/.321/.413 career line going into the day. Of course his .400 batting average on balls in play makes much of what he’s doing unsustainable, but maybe there *are* sustainable parts to his start?

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Buy High on Paul Maholm?

How real is Paul Maholm’s start? The soft-tossing left-hander has not allowed a run to score in 20.1 innings while striking out over 25% of the batters he has faced so far. With a fastball velocity of 86.9 miles per hour, it is easy to expect the strikeout rate to drop and the ERA to subsequently rise. Even with those certainties, Maholm is still a better than thought of starting pitcher. He is essentially what Mark Buehrle was when he was Maholm’s age, a starter who will rely on command and deception to get hitters out, but Maholm has seen his strikeout rate steadily climbing over the past four years, from 12.1% to 14.1% to 17.8% and this year’s 25.3% rate.

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Cheap Starters: Options for Daily Leagues in Week Three

Chris Capuano | Los Angeles Dodgers | Home to San Diego on Tuesday

One man’s folly is another man’s fortune, right? Well the bizarre and unfortunate injury to Zack Greinke after the altercation with Carlos Quentin and the Padres gives Capuano the fifth spot in the Dodgers rotation. Had I been making decisions in LA, he might have had that spot this season to begin with.

Capuano is coming off two straight seasons in which he topped 180 innings and had an xFIP under 4.00. He displayed some serious skill in 2011 with an above average strikeout rate (21%), an above average walk rate (6.6%), and a solid xFIP of 3.60. Unfortunately he was a little unlucky with balls in play (.311 BABIP), and he let a few too many fly out of the park (1.31 HR/9) which led to a 4.55 ERA. But the next year he was basically luck-neutral (.284 BABIP, 1.13 HR/9), and his ERA fell to 3.72. His strikeout skills weren’t the same but were still slightly above average (19.8%), and his walk rate was equally good.

Capuano can obviously pitch, and I am glad to see him get the chance to start again, even if I wish it had come via less unfortunate circumstances. He’s got a good matchup at home against the Padres on Tuesday. He’s currently owned in just 2% of ESPN leagues. Read the rest of this entry »