We don’t want to give you ranking fatigue here, but it is useful to tier your positional ranks. I like to get the last guy in a tier — especially among closers, where the production is so volatile and tied specifically to role. But even among outfielders, the idea is that you’ll get a guy that’s equal-ish to another group, but you’ll get him cheaper.

We split the National League and the American League so that you’ll get the best coverage of the position. There are a lot of outfielders, after all. And yes, some of these guys will have moved since the consensus ranks. Focus more on the tiers than the placement of the players within. That was more intuitive, and probably a little bit reactionary.

To the tiers.

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You’d think that after a shocking run to the playoffs despite having a dozen different pitchers make at least two starts — and only one make more than 20 — that the Baltimore Orioles would have done something to shore up their rotation this winter. They haven’t, so far, and while their decision is more than defensible, it doesn’t make projecting the 2013 collection any easier.

Here’s what we do know about this year’s Orioles rotation, however. We know that Joe Saunders (seven starts), Dana Eveland (two starts), and Randy Wolf (two starts) aren’t going to be part of it. We know that the top four is likely to be made up of Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Hammel, Miguel Gonzalez, & Chris Tillman, and we know with near absolute certainty that when the season ends, at least one of those four men (but likely more) will no longer be in the rotation. Read the rest of this entry »

Last season was supposed to be better for the Blue Jays than it was. They were absolutely annihilated by injuries in both the lineup and the pitching staff, but while there were some bright spots offensively, the pitching was simply dire. As a staff, the Jays racked up the third lowest WAR total in baseball at 7.6. Remove Brandon Morrow’s decent 2.4 WAR season and the rest of the pitchers muster just 5.2 WAR.

The good news is that this year’s rotation looks virtually nothing like last year’s patchwork ensemble. New acquisitions R.A. Dickey and Josh Johnson combined for nearly a win more last season than the entire Jays staff and while he’s not as impressive as the other two might be, Mark Buehrle would have been the Jays second best starter behind Morrow. Read the rest of this entry »

Usually one of the shallower positions in fantasy, shortstop has added some much needed depth with players like Ben Zobrist and Martin Prado joining the fun. Let’s take a look at the tiers based on our Rotographs consensus rankings.

Tier 1:

Starlin Castro
Jose Reyes
Troy Tulowitzki

Castro is extremely durable and hasn’t even reached his peak seasons yet, what’s not to love? The 23-year-old’s average dipped below .300 last year (.283) but he increased his home runs, steals, and RBIs. He’s a safe bet to at least match last season’s totals which is why he’s number one in our rankings. Reyes can easily grab the top spot in this tier if he hits like he did in the second half of last season when his line was .312/.361/.495 with 20 stolen bases. He’s leading off for what should be an impressive Toronto lineup so he’ll have ample run scoring opportunities as well.

If healthy the top spot would belong to Troy Tulowitzki without question. No one provides the type of overall production at the position like the seventh year man out of Long Beach State. He looks to be recovered from the groin injury that cut his 2012 season short. If other owners are wary you may be able to pick up him at a discount on draft day.

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It’s time for the second annual Top 100 Fantasy Rookies, a list of 100 prospects who should make an impact on the 2013 fantasy baseball season. Just how much impact? In some cases, a lot; but in others, it may be minimal — or even negligible. That’s the inherent risk in predicting and projecting not only prospects’ development curves but also how these players possibly fit into their big league teams’ plans during the upcoming season.

That’s why, much like with my Mining the Minors columns, I’ve incorporated both talent and opportunity into each prospect’s ranking. Sometimes, a player’s talent is so elite that it’s worth bumping him up the rankings even if his path to playing time isn’t all that clear (think: Mike Trout last year). But there are also plenty of players in these rankings who skew toward the opportunity side of the spectrum, because they’re (nearly) ready to be in the majors on Opening Day (read: David Phelps, 2012). Trying to weigh and balance these two aspects — talent and opportunity — is what makes a list like this so challenging. And so fluid. Which is to say, my mind could change on any of the players on the list between today and tomorrow. Or even today and later today.

Here’s the second batch, from Ryan Jackson to Jackie Bradley.

Nos. 100-81

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The new-look Toronto Blue Jays are the new darlings of the AL East, projected by many to win out over perennial division powerhouses in the Yankees and Red Sox. The infield, which used to rely on Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson up the middle, has a new look with new faces in Jose Reyes, Maicer Izturis, and Emilio Bonifacio in place. And the corners have the tantalizing upsides of young star Brett Lawrie and 2012 breakout Edwin Encarnacion. If everything breaks right, the Toronto infield could be one of the best in baseball, despite not being very deep, in 2013.

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A couple weeks ago, I covered C, 1B, 2B, and SS. Since then, I have also shared my rankings spreadsheet. Today, we cover 3B, OF, SP, and RP.

The lessons are going to remain pretty similar – guys with high walk rates rank higher, guys with a lot of speed rank lower – and will extend to the pitching sphere nicely – closers lose some value, guys projected for close to 20 wins lose some value, pitchers who keep the ball in the yard gain value. But it is still informative to look position by position and see where the differences manifest.

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The third base position just took a hit with news that Chase Headley is going to be out 4-6 weeks due to a thumb injury. I was actually the least optimistic about his performance given my ranking, so looks like I will be closest before the season has even begun. Victory! For the hot corner, I will only look at those I ranked in the top 20 as bullish picks, while the bearish group will include those in the consensus top 20. Inside that top 20, there really aren’t a whole lot of players I am particularly bullish on compared to the rest of the rankers.

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I have not had time to go through all the fastball speeds and won’t until I get back from Arizona. Just player and DL updates today and hopefully I can get a full report out later in the week.

Recent injury data

 • Mark Teixeira could need season ending wrist surgery with the best case scenario seeing him ready after May. I would not plan on any production from him this season and draft/bid accordingly.

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“Out of crisis comes opportunity.”

That’s the mantra anyone contemplating the Marlins infield should probably try to hold on to. Cause it’s definitely a crisis, that squad. Practically every position is up for grabs, and some new players will own starting roles in Miami this year. The problem, though, is that most of the players that might take the opportunity born of this crisis are flawed, and some are extremely flawed. There might not be a mixed league starter in the whole crew.

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