The Braves bullpen put up some fantastic numbers last season. A lot of it had to do with Craig Kimbrel’s gaudy numbers, but the group as a whole was pretty good. They were the fifth best bullpen according to WAR and had the second best ERA backed up by the best xFIP and the second best SIERA. The scary part is that they added to the unit by dealing Tommy Hanson for Jordan Walden.

The Closer

Craig Kimbrel

You could go on and on about how great Kimbrel was last year and post an endless list of crazy stats. But the short version is this: Kimbrel led relievers in K% and only one guy was within 10 percentage points of him. He also led the league in K/BB, xFIP, and SIERA while trailing only Fernando Rodney in ERA. He’s the undisputed #1 closer this year. Unfortuantely, that means he’s going way too high in drafts. The latest you can get Kimbrel is probably somewhere in the 40’s, and you just can’t pass on the quality hitters still available at that point to take a closer. Read the rest of this entry »

The Boston Red Sox have experienced massive turnover amongst their position players over the last year. No more Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Mike Aviles or Cody Ross. They will be replaced by a combination of free-agent signees and internal prospects, and the organization hopes the new faces will help the offense improve from last season’s mediocre output. Boston finished with a 12th-ranked .316 wOBA and a 94 wRC+.

For fantasy owners, the trick will not only be assessing whether the Red Sox will ultimately improve with the bats, but also who projects to get early playing time. David Ortiz is doubtful for the start of the season with Achilles / leg problems, while Stephen Drew may begin the year on the disabled list due to concussion symptoms.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. 70% of opening day closers won’t still have their jobs by the end of the year…

You don’t need me to tell you that closers are easily replaced, and so saying that we’ll see changes in the ninth inning isn’t really that bold. So if we’re going to make this exciting, let’s say that more than a full two-thirds of closers won’t last the season, either through injury or ineffectiveness. That may sound like a high number, but then again, remember who teams were counting on to finish games for them last April — guys like Alfredo Aceves, Javy Guerra, Jordan Walden, Brett Myers, Heath Bell, & Matt Capps. Even top-tier closers like Mariano Rivera & Brian Wilson weren’t immune, though of course for other reasons. By my count, only 10 closers made it wire-to-wire, and a few more (Carlos Marmol, Huston Street, etc) had to deal with changes at some point in the season. This really drives the point home that you can almost always find saves somewhere. The bell tolls for thee, Sergio Romo & Jim Johnson.
Read the rest of this entry »

Somewhere, someone is asking Rebecca Black what today is, probably.

On today’s agenda:
1. The San Diego Padres fifth starter situation
2. Stephen Drew to the disabled list
3. Dylan Axelrod as the Chicago White Sox five starter
4. (Daniel) Bard’s Sad Song
Read the rest of this entry »

Not as many updates today as I expected. Quite a few players were officially moved to the D.L., but new injuries have been limited over the past few days.

Third base is just seeing a ton of injury issues. I went and looked at an early draft from ESPN. Six of the first eleven draft 3B have a chance of starting the season on the D.L.

(#3 David Wright, #4 Hanley Ramirez, #6 Chase Headley, #8 Brett Lawrie, #9 Pablo Sandoval, #11 David Freese)

Recent injury data

 • Bryce Harper is dealing with a thumb issue which seems to keep getting worse. If he tries to play through it, his production may be down a bit.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Chicago Cubs are pinning their future on the improvement of Starlin Castro. Three years into his career, Castro has been a slightly above-average player. His 103 wRC+ confirms that notion, and his .330 career wOBA is hardly elite. But there is reason for optimism. Castro is just 23-years-old, and has been a regular in the majors since his age-20 season. While his offensive performance hasn’t been great thus far, there’s reason to believe he can turn into a great hitter.

Read the rest of this entry »

My comrades have been rolling out their bold predictions all week, so now it’s my turn to keep things going. I went 2-for-10 last season, which is probably replacement level for these things. Then again, I was one stupid Scott Downs save away from going 3-for-10, and 3-for-10 sounds a whole lot better than 2-for-10. Here are this year’s predictions:

1. Bryce Harper will be a top-five fantasy player.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year around this time I was sitting and watching a Royals spring training game and absolutely beaming with sheer delight every time either Eric Hosmer or Lorenzo Cain came to bat. I had just finished drafting in my primary keeper league and after holding over Hosmer from a rookie season of deliciousness, added his teammate to the mix for a reasonable sum of six bid dollars. The two of them were going off last spring. Batting averages consistently over .400, home runs, stolen bases, Hosmer was working in the outfield ready to add dual-eligibility to his resume and it was fixin’ to be one helluva season. But then the season opened and….well….you know. Cain got hurt and hit the DL within the first week and Hosmer went from super-stud to super-dud in a matter of minutes. Obviously you can’t predict injuries, but there were some warning signs with Hosmer that I guess I chose to overlook given the way he was playing at the time. So with that, I decided to look at some of the hot springs that may entice you to draft, but should probably be left alone for the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Batting towards the end of the week with 10 Bold Predictions is a tough spot – I don’t want to duplicate what’s been said already, but I also don’t want to go down the depth chart to my 17th and 18th boldest predictions. It’s also my rookie season making bold predictions here, so I’m hoping I can have an impact similar to that of the first guy on my list, a repeated prediction I can’t avoid.

1) Jedd Gyorko is the real deal.
Seriously, if you have drafts remaining, go buy this guy. I’ve got shares of him everywhere. Projection systems see him as a .270-15-5 type but he’s flashed much more power at times, as well as 10-steal wheels in 2011. I’ve got Gyorko pencilled in for .275 with 20-plus home runs, and Chase Headley’s injury should give him ample time to prove he’s worth keeping at the major league level. Add in some likely position flexibility, and you’ve got a stud being selected outside of the top-200.

Read the rest of this entry »

On my last day down at Spring Training I was lucky enough to catch two high profile pitching prospects face each other in a minor league game at Astros camp in Kissimmee. Houston power arm Jarred Cosart opposed the also highly regarded A.J. Cole of the Washington Nationals. I thought today I’d provide a little breakdown of those two pitchers and how they can potentially help your fantasy team.

Jarred Cosart

The Breakdown: Cosart

A 38th round pick by the Phillies out of high school in Texas, Cosart is a big, athletic pitcher who can throw mid 90’s all day long. He has a quick arm and the ball comes out of his hand well. Cosart looks like he throws even harder than the 94-96 mph at which I clocked him. I kept looking down expecting to see a 98 or 99 but never got it. There’s some effort in his mechanics, but nothing that would trouble me in terms of workload or injury. The issue with Cosart is more a question of how his mechanics affect his command. He has trouble repeating his delivery and varies his timing. Some of this is a result of a long arm action in back. He also has a prominent head jerk as he releases the pitch and a cross-fire finish to his arm action. These qualities lead to an inconsistent release point and problems finishing up. This is not conducive to the fastball command necessary to be am effective big league starter. Cosart’s power curveball (78-80 mph) shows some tight spin and deep break but it’s mostly useful as a chase pitch only. He also telegraphs the curve with a pronounced difference in his arm action. There’s no real feel for an off speed offering here. Cosart mixes in a straight change but they were all hard, straight and up in my viewing. The ultimate profile here looks to me to be a relief arm but at age 23 he’s still capable of making adjustments that would fix some of the holes in his game.

Read the rest of this entry »