Relievers! Are they the kickers of fantasy baseball? It might be even worse: kickers at least give you straight points. There is no ‘field goal’ category. There is a ‘saves’ category, however, and only relievers can get you anywhere in that category. So hold your nose and jump in.

I’m a big fan of picking at the end of tiers — and your bullpen reporters will get you tiered rankings soon, and then give you daily updates about bullpens around the league — so there are some names that jump out at me. Joe Nathan looks like the last guy we all agree belongs in the top tier. Then somewhere around Rafael Soriano and Tom Wilhelmsen there seems to be a second tier. Then I’d usually take a break and take two fliers. Let’s say two of Ryan Madson, Steve Cishek and Bobby Parnell. Then again, my “closers” in AL-LABR were Jose Veras, Joaquin Benoit, and Andrew Bailey.

I don’t like to pay much for saves, in other words.

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Bleacher Report’s Will Carroll has released a detailed Health Report for every major league team. Read away.

Recent injury data

 • Mark Teixeira is out 8-10 weeks with a strained wrist with Dan Johnson taking over at 1B.

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Paul Konerko has defied the odds. At an age where most players a clearly past their prime, Konerko is posting some of his best offensive seasons. Even with the late-career resurgence, Konerko continues to be a risk because of his age. That’s a fair criticism, as 37-year-olds are rarely still exhibiting numbers anywhere close to their prime. Given what he’s been able to do over the past couple of seasons, there’s reason to believe Konerko will be just fine this year.

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The 2013 version of the Cardinals bullpen seems to be littered with depth, specialists and flashes some upside that should make for an interesting year, both in real and fake baseball.

The Closer:

Jason Motte

Motte finished 2012 42-of-49 in save chances with a 2.75 ERA (3.12 FIP) and a 5.02 K/BB. His 42 saves and 5.02 K/BB were each career bests with a minimum of 20 innings pitched, and good enough for a third and twelfth place finish among qualified relievers respectively last year. The key to the righty’s recent success could be associated with the increased use of the cutter over the past three seasons. The flamethrower’s velocity and ability to induce swinging strikes have increased and his xFIP has decreased in each of those seasons. The Cardinals’ closer continues to get better and maybe the best is yet to come. He’s ascended into the top of the second tier of relievers and should be one of the top three from that position selected in your draft. He will continue to provide impressive ratios, whiff batters and tally the saves your team desperately needs — if you’re willing to pay the price.

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The Indians had a miserable finish to the season last year, though their bullpen wasn’t part of the problem. The team’s relief unit pitched to a 3.68 ERA (3.75 FIP) in the second half while working more innings (273.2) than any other non-Rockies team in baseball. GM Chris Antonetti remade his bullpen a bit this offseason, using some spare bullpen arms to finish the Trevor Bauer three-team trade and another to land Mike Aviles and Yan Gomes. Long-time Tribe reliever Rafael Perez was cut loose following shoulder surgery.

New manager Terry Francona has one of baseball’s best closer-setup man combinations in baseball at his disposal, or at least he did until injury struck last week.

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Obviously, if you talk to any legitimate stat junkie, they’d be able to tell you in a heartbeat, but ask any casual baseball fan which team bullpen was the most valuable to their team last year, and very few….probably none….would be able to tell you it was the Royals. With an overall WAR of 7.3 and such solid numbers like a 77.8-percent strand rate, an 8.5-percent HR/FB, a 3.17 ERA and a 8.58 K/9, the Royals pen was one of the team’s strongest assets. And this year probably won’t be much different as most of the components that made it so successful last year are back for more here in 2013. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2012 Detroit Tigers had a mediocre, middle-of-the-pack bullpen. Despite this year’s edition lacking in name recognition, it could prove to be one of the most exciting bullpens in the league. With no clear closer and a lot of high-powered arms, Jim Leyland doesn’t have a go-to guy to rely on any longer.

While Jose Valverde racked up 35 saves and kept his ERA to 3.78 last season, his strikeout rate also plummeted and he is still presently looking for work. The Tigers are unsure of exactly how their pen will be set up, but it appears bringing Valverde back is not in the plans, at least according to Leyland. There has been speculation that the Tigers may look to make a move to solidify the back end, but nothing seems imminent.

Behind Valverde last year were a pair of very solid right-handed relievers, both of whom have a chance at save situations this year. Joaquin Benoit continued his stellar run as a late-inning man, posting a 29.2 K% and a 3.29 xFIP. Home runs were a bit of an issue, but his HR/FB rate was nearly double his career mark and is due for some regression. Octavio Dotel, meanwhile, had a strong season overall but simply can’t be trusted against lefties, making him a ROOGY of sorts for Leyland. This five-year trend of being shelled by lefties and shutting down righties should mean he sees a more extreme split in terms of batters faced, although the lack of lefties in the bullpen could convince Leyland to leave him in against them anyway, splits be damned.
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With our RotoGraph fantasy rankings being released, I will look at one player who is tough to project, Aroldis Chapman. He is being moved to the starting rotation after being the Reds closer last season. While many pitchers have previously made the move, his high number of strikeouts make find comparables almost impossible. His 2012 15.3 K/9 was the 4th highest K/9 value since 1950 (min 40 IP). I will take a stab at his full time reliever or starter fantasy value.

Projecting Chapman as a reliever is easy, he should be the 2nd rated reliever with Craig Kimbrel being #1. Here are the average draft positions the pair and Jonathan Papelbon at Yahoo!, ESPN and MockDraftCentral.

Name:Yahoo!, ESPN, MDC
Kimbel: 45, 40, 27
Chapman: 66, 77, 133
Papelbon: 78, 79, 78

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It’s unlikely any 2013 rookie will have the impact in fantasy that Mike Trout did last season. Actually, it’s kind of unlikely any rookie will have the kind of fantasy impact that Trout did last season again in our lifetimes. Sure, prospects are generally speaking poor bets for consistent production. Yet, every year a few of these long shot bets come through and pay off big. Over the last decade names such as Trout, Craig Kimbrel, Albert Pujols and Rocco Baldelli all helped bring home fantasy titles to their many delighted owners. You don’t even need to find a Trout – which is good because, again, that’s really unlikely! Sometimes a Todd Frazier fills a need perfectly for a team lacking a third baseman. Hitting on a useful prospect or two like that can really make the difference for your fantasy team.

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In what is likely my last Pod Projection post of the year (my eBook teaches you how to forecast players yourself!), Johnny Cueto wins the honor of finishing up the series. Cueto has posted sub-3.00 ERAs two years running now, despite all ERA estimators sitting significantly above those marks. Great fortune (skill?) in the three “luck” metrics we analyze is the explanation for his ERA estimator beating ways. Can it continue?

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