Many times I hear one of the popular fantasy mantras (“always start your studs!”) I can’t help but roll my eyes. I’m just not a fan of trying to wedge advice into a one-size-fits-all framework. However, there is one overly-used cliché I actually follow. Believe it’s validity deep in my brain and deeper in the heart. “Never pay for saves on draft day.”

Of course, for those guys that love them some elite closers, the easy retort to this is “but… but… Mariano Rivera!” They’re right, I can’t deny Mariano Rivera has provided excellent return on investment for his drafters over the last decade or so. But that specific example doesn’t mean the closer position isn’t horrendously volatile and subject to the whims of finicky managers around the league.

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As I stated last week, I will be changing the layout of my posts until the start of the season to give you more practical fantasy advice for the upcoming season. I won’t be talking about draft position, ottoneu, or auction prices, rather I’ll breakdown which prospects can help your team in each of the traditional fantasy categories. Each week I’ll give you my No Doubt, Overrated, and Sleeper picks. Read the rest of this entry »

On Wednesday evening, Oakland, Seattle, & Washington came together for a three-way trade that seems like it could be a win for all parties involved. That’s perhaps intentionally misleading – the Mariners are getting killed on this trade, and rightfully so – but this is RotoGraphs, and so we need to look at this deal with an eye on fantasy. Seen in that light, all of the moving pieces here leave us with a few players who might get a slight boost in their fantasy value. Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Napoli finally signed with the Red Sox. It took him a month or so to iron out the details, and in that month his draft stock fell. Considering his track record of power, it’s tempting to label him a sleeper even after the tough year he showed in Texas last season, but the the circumstances of the deal can’t be considered ideal — even if a probable move to first base, where only Mauro Gomez is his competition, probably means more available playing time.

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Right around this time of year I start to get that anticipatory giddiness that a six-year old gets in December when he starts counting down the days to Christmas. February 12 is the first day pitchers and catchers are allowed to report for Spring Training 2013 — just 27 days away. That’s less than a month. Calm, cool and collected on the outside; I’m doing back-flips on the inside. You feeling it too?  I thought so. This is our Christmas. Read the rest of this entry »

In a bid to get out of the cellar in runs scored in the American League and team wOBA in all of baseball, the Mariners made another move to bolster their offense. This time they acquired Michael Morse, star of one of my favorite baseball plays in recent memory. Seriously, please watch this if you never have, it’s AMAZING. Anyhow, Morse leaves behind a home ballpark that had a pretty neutral reputation to one that killed right-handers. But, that ballpark is undergoing changes. Let’s see if we could possibly figure out how the switch will affect Morse.

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Bill Petti and I have been looking at pitches thrown at the edge of the strike zone over the last few days. Pitchers who throw a higher percentage of pitches on the edge perform better than those pitchers who throw a lower percentage. Edge% is not going to change the core traits of pitcher talent, high strike outs and low walks, but it is a nice tool to help differentiate between two similar pitchers.

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The playoff hangover must have been still lingering in Washington and Rafael Soriano is apparently the salve.

You could hear the cries of Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen owners all across the fantasy landscape when the news of the Nationals inking Soriano to a two year, pile of unnecessary cash deal, was announced. But there were apparently enough concerns over Storen’s health, his playoff meltdown versus the St. Louis Cardinals, and/or Tyler Clippards forgettable second half, that bringing in Soriano to put out fires was necessary.

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Edit: It should be noted that several players listed below were not drafted with the intention of making them primary third basemen. Mike Petriello grabbed both Headley and Trumbo, and I took Ryan Zimmerman early, then both Freese and Scutaro later on as my CI/MI players. Machado was picked up by Jeff Zimmerman, who already had Hanley who could play either SS or 3B. 

Even after the decline of two staples at third base in Kevin Youkilis and Alex Rodriguez, the position is stronger — not to mention deeper — than I would have imagined. After 15 rounds, there has been a total of 16 third base eligible players taken in The RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft. For the 2013 season, it appears as though the third base position will be offer a wide range of choices for fantasy managers. There are plenty of early round/big money picks as well as more than a few mid and late round options. Read the rest of this entry »

Through the first 10 rounds of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft, a draft for a single-catcher league, we saw a total of eight backstops come off the board. In an effort to see how our picks matched up with public opinion, we’ve been comparing the results to ADP found on both Mock Draft Central (MDC) and the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). However, given how unreliable MDC data is right now due to small sample sizes and the fact that they don’t differentiate between one and two-catcher league mocks, we’re basically casting that ADP data aside and just matching up with that from the NFBC, a two-catcher league draft. With the current depth at the position, it should have been safe to assume that the top backstops would go a bit earlier in our draft than in the NFBC, however, in looking back at the comparisons, that was not the case. In fact, save for everyone agreeing that Buster Posey was a consensus late-first round pick, nothing went as expected. Read the rest of this entry »