This offseason, as transactions on the big league level unfold, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week, Part Deux: The second of two majors prospect-laden trades this week went down between the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds — only two days after the blockbuster that sent top tier ‘spects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi from the Kansas City Royals to the Tampa Bay Rays. Amazingly, the young players whose fantasy values were impacted by the second deal are no less heralded — and there’s more of them — so they’re worthy of their own separate post.

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What a season for Chris Sale. I was a huge fan of his before the year began, going as far as predicting that he would outearn every White Sox and Diamondbacks starting pitcher. Although I ended up being right, I never expected that he would finish the season as the 12th most valuable pitcher overall, earning $20. Not only was Sale making the transition from reliever to starter, but it was only his second full season in the Majors, after throwing a paltry 10.1 innings over his entire minor league career. So in other words, we really had little clue what we would get from him. It is safe to say that Sale won’t come as cheaply during this year’s drafts as he did last year!

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When looking at Ryan Dempster’s ranking at the end of last season – 31st overall, $10 – my first reaction was “that’s about right.” That’s exactly who Dempster is. If you looked up “31st best pitcher” in the dictionary, if such an entry existed, you’d probably find a picture of Ryan Dempster. He only started 28 games last season, which is 5-6 less than usual, so if he had pitched a full schedule his ranking may be a bit higher, but you get my point. He’s not one of the top 20 starters in baseball, but he’s squarely in the top 40 discussion.

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Along with several other members of the FG/RG family, I’m currently participating in a twelve-team 5×5 mock draft, just to reset expectations for the upcoming season. With the first pick of the sixth round, as the 12^th starter taken — and ahead of guys like CC Sabathia, Chris Sale, & Jered Weaver — a pitcher was selected who didn’t get his first win until July 4 and ended up with only six on the season.

We’re talking about Cliff Lee, of course, and he is still awesome.

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Wade Miley made a strong case for biggest surprise of the season. The 25-year-old lefty had a exceptional rookie season, nearly beating the much-hyped Bryce Harper for the NL Rookie of the Year award. Miley’s season comes as even more of a shock considering he was never a strong prospect in Arizona’s system. Miley got by last season with a mixture of just enough strikeouts, exceptional control and, probably, a little home run luck. That skill set will lead to success in the majors, but it leaves little room for error.

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Sticking with Zach Sanders’ Starting Pitcher End of Season Rankings and Diamondbacks pitchers who disappointed me during the 2012 season, we scroll on down the number 45 on the list, Ian Kennedy. Coming into the season, there figured to be be a certain degree of regression from his absolutely outstanding 2011 season, but while I was looking for a slight stumble backwards, Kennedy looked like he got shoved so hard in the chest that he fell all the way back to 2010. Just one year removed from Cy Young contention, Kennedy looks like he’s right back where he started. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, as transactions on the big league level unfold, we’ll take a look at how the ripple effects shake out on the prospect side, focusing primarily on 2013 fantasy impact, with an eye toward the future, too.

This week: Because such minor, no-name non-prospects who won’t make any impact at all next season were traded over the past few days, we’ll split this into two posts, the first of which will cover the deal between the Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals. The second one, coming Friday, will break down the three-team swap involving the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds.

Really, nothing major to get into here over the next two days, just a few guys named Myers, Bauer, Skaggs, Odorizzi and Archer. You’ve probably never even heard of them.

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So, as you know, there was a pretty interesting three-team trade made on Tuesday. Though I’m sure Dusty Baker contested, the Reds finally have a new leadoff hitter, one whose OBP doesn’t suck. Shin-Soo Choo is now a Red and will likely hit atop the order for his new team. With strong OBPs and only so-so ISO marks the last two seasons, Choo makes for a pretty perfect number one guy. Given the perception of the two parks, getting out of Cleveland and into the supposed launching pad in Cincinnati should boost his fantasy value. Let’s see if that is the case.

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Drafting Jake Peavy last year was basically an after thought. Not much demand existed for a 31-year-old pitcher coming off a season with a near 5.00 ERA and shoulder issues. He was able to come back with a force and ended up as the season’s 17th highest rated starting pitcher with the same auction value of CC Sabathia, James Shields and Stephen Strasburg. I expect somewhat similar results in 2013 as he had in 2012 because of continued health and improved defense around him.

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Felix Hernandez has been pretty terrific since his arrival in 2005, but over the past four years he’s been awfully special. Despite playing for mediocre, even terrible, teams, Hernandez has provided the elusive anchor that fantasy managers pay so dearly for. And although he’s changing as a pitcher, he continues to baffle opposing hitters, very much earning the title King.

As you well know by know, we’re doing the rear view mirror thing by position recently, using the mojo of Zach Sanders and his abacus to help us quantify 2012 values. In that lens, he has Hernandez valued at about 21 bucks in relation to all the other starting pitchers you might have trotted out there over the course of the season. Chances are, many of you paid a good sum more than $21, or perhaps a draft pick that would reflect a more sizable investment, but that’s not to say his contributions weren’t worth it to your squad.

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