Last week, we received our first set of 2013 projections, and Jeff Zimmerman presented 5×5 rankings based on three cuts of that data.

By now, many of you have probably noticed a pattern forming this off-season – 5×5 rankings come out, and Chad follows with the ottoneu edition. Sure enough, here three cuts of linear weights points rankings of the top 20 hitters for 2013, based on the Bill James Handbook Projections.

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If there was a roller coaster ride named after a baseball hitter, its name would be Alex Rios. The White Sox outfielder has given fantasy owners and projection makers fits trying to make sense of his ups and downs. But there he was, sitting happily at the fifth slot among outfielders, having earned $22 for the 2012 season. Is this just 2010 all over again that will be followed with another 2011, or are we witnessing a new Alex Rios?

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It’s not like George Peppard is standing in front of his GMC with a stubby cigar in his mouth mumbling something about a plan coming together, but the Seattle Mariners must think something similar when it comes to Michael Saunders. After three failed experiments at the Major League level, Saunders, 26, finally showed some of the promise the club hoped for as early as 2007.

Over 553 plate appearances, Saunders hit 19 home runs, stole 21 bases, hitting 31 doubles and three triples. His .247/.306/.432 line could use some improvement but there were enough positives in his 2012 season that Saunders stands towards the front of the line of post-hype sleepers coming into 2013.

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C’mon readers of RotoGraphs, you didn’t really think I was going to let the year end without another piece on Adam Jones from me, did you? I was just waiting for the appropriate time and with the release of Zach Sanders’ Outfielder End of Season Rankings, that time is now. So scroll on down to number six, check out those numbers and $21 value and let’s talk about Baltimore’s number one outfielder. Read the rest of this entry »

Bryce Harper arrived much earlier than anyone expected. When the Nationals called up their 19-year-old uber-prospect, it was simply because injuries forced them into the situation. The initial word was that Harper would only play in the majors until the rest of the team was healthy. But Harper’s performance forced the Nationals to keep him around for the rest of the season. And by September, Harper had emerged as one of the team’s best offensive players. Had it not been for Mike Trout, Harper would have received even more accolades for his accomplishments at such a young age. Harper was as good as anyone could have expected last season. So, the big question is: what the heck is he going to do for an encore?

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I have been a huge fan of Desmond Jennings as he climbed the minor league ladder. He looked like he could potentially be a Carl Crawford clone for fantasy leaguers with mid-teen home run potential, a boat load of stolen bases and a good batting average buoyed by a solid contact rate. But after teasing us with a 24 homer/48 steal season prorated to 600 at-bats in 2011, he was a bit of a disappointment this year.

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It was just a year ago at this time that Ryan Braun’s name was starting to be whispered in connection to a failed PED test sometime at the end of the 2011 season. We all know how it shook out. Braun was indeed accused of violating Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Agreement, appealed, and, in a rather substantial upset, was exonerated in all but the court of public opinion.

Plenty of people believed then — and continue to believe — that Braun gamed the system and should have been suspended for 50 games, 42 more than he actually missed in 2012. I have strong opinions on the JDA and PEDs in general, but this isn’t so much the space for them. The important thing for fantasy players is that, whether you believe Braun was using a PED or not in 2011, don’t bother waiting for the other shoe to drop. It will never come. I studied it for Sports Illustrated, Nate Silver did it for Baseball Between the Numbers, Justin Wolfers and a team of Penn economists did it for a peer-review journal (this was then republished in the New York Times), and pair of stats professors did it for the New York Times, and all four studies came to the same conclusion: There is no statistical evidence to support the idea that PEDs produce abnormal offensive seasons.

There’s no way to know for sure how many people resisted drafting Braun because they were worried he’d suddenly turn to sand, but he surely didn’t. As previously noted, he played all but eight games this season and gave owners very similar production compared to what he gave them last year. While his 2011 campaign featured a higher batting average and a slightly better slash line across the board — .332/.397/.597 in 2011 compared to .319/.391/.595 in 2012 — he hit eight more home runs to help make up the difference. His run and RBI totals were even more remarkably similar: 109/111 respectively in 2011 and 108/112 in 2012.

If it’s possible for a top-10 pick to be undervalued, Braun might be the type who is. He’s a phenomenal hitter, there isn’t a soul who doesn’t know that, but he also stole 30 bases, tying him for 17th in baseball and ninth in the National League. He’s highly efficient in his base-stealing, stealing 30 bases in 37 attempts in 2012 and 33 out of 39 attempts in 2011, so while he doesn’t get an abnormally high number of chances, he should constantly be an asset in that category in a way other 35-40 HR threats typically aren’t.

Notable to OBP players will be the sharp uptick Braun saw in intentional walks after the departure of Prince Fielder. In his five seasons prior to 2012, Braun was intentionally walked just nine times and never more than four times in a year, but in 2012 alone he was given then standing four count 15 times. Aramis Ramirez had his best seasons ever by wRC+, but was still unable to keep Braun from getting passed. If this trend continues next season, and there’s little reason to believe it won’t, Braun’s OBP will get a nice bump, though it will come at the expense of a few RBI chances. He wasn’t much worse for the wear last year, however, so even if he were to reach 20 intentional walks, it’s unlikely to make a noticeable difference in his counting stats.

Positional scarcity certainly help to explain why Braun isn’t fighting for the first overall pick — and why Mike Trout may not go first overall either — but over the last two seasons only Miguel Cabrera has had a higher wOBA or wRC+ than Braun. Over the same time period, Bruan is third in batting average, second in HR, fifth in RBI, fourth in runs scored, 10th in stolen bases, the only player to appear in the top 10 of all major offensive categories. You can’t, as the saying goes, win a draft in the first round, but you can lose one; Braun is exactly the type of player who will provide a high peak without a lot of associated risk and that’s exactly what a high first-rounder should do.

If it’s ok with Eno I’m going to take the format he used in the first paragraph of his Josh Hamilton piece and apply it to B.J. Upton.

For a 28-year-old outfielder we have a surprising abundance of information about B.J. Upton. 4,000 or so plate appearances. Six full seasons and he has nearly two whole years until he touches 30. He’s worn the masks of several different players during his time in the big leagues, so it’s been tough to pin him down. He’s been the high walk, low power base stealer (2008), the all power, no OBP guy (2012), the low average, moderate power guy (2010-2011), the bust (2009) and the all-around All Star (2007). Over the past few years it appears his true form has come to light.

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Thanks to two excellent researchers, we have two different pitcher xBABIPs nestled within the posts on this site.

Matt Swartz has an xBABIP that’s part of SIERA. He was nice enough to re-run it with all pitchers with 40 innings pitched or more for 2003-12. He did not adjust for usage by weighting pitchers with high IP more heavily, but he did regress BABIP using factors that his research has shown to influence the number. His pitcher xBABIP formula is:

BABIP = .290 + .045*GB% – .103*K%.

Steve Staude used batted ball data to find a pitcher xBABIP in the Community Blog a while back. Of course, the weakness of a model using line drive percentage is the fickleness of that stat from stadium to stadium and year to year, but it does make a lot of sense intuitively: give up fewer frozen ropes and you’ll give up fewer hits. His regression led him to the following pitcher xBABIP formula:

xBABIP = 0.4*LD% – 0.6*FB%*IFFB% + 0.235

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As I sit here 30 pounds heavier and still feeling the effects of slipping into a pumpkin pie-induced coma, I am reminded by Zach Sanders’ End of Season Outfielder Rankings that we’re still doing our player evaluations from 2012 and it’s now time to get back to baseball. Obviously, there are plenty of interesting players in the outfield to sift through and discuss, but as I scrolled through, something that caught my eye and had me pleasantly surprised, was that Michael Bourn was sitting at number 16. While most head to head leagues and most of the ottoneu universe dismiss the importance of a burner like Bourn, roto league owners should be looking to grab him in 2013 and gain that much-needed edge in the stolen base and runs scored categories. Read the rest of this entry »