Unlike some of our other awards where there was very little dissension in the ranks, the Rotographs staff were pretty split as to who would be our Hare for the National League. For those who missed Eno’s introduction, the Hare is essentially the best sell-high player of the season. I’m not sure what it says about the NL that there were just too many good options; I went in thinking that it would be Bryan LaHair in a runaway, but once I started thinking about my options, he barely remained in my top three. Read the rest of this entry »

Pop quiz, hotshot. Guess where Chase Headley, our 2012 National League Fantasy Most Valuable Player, was ranked among third basemen prior to the season by Yahoo! Sports. 10th? 15th? Try 22nd, below Michael Young, below Emilio Bonifacio, even below Ryan Roberts.

Now, guess where Headley finished the season at Yahoo!, but not just among his position, where he easily came in as the most valuable third baseman in the NL (and fourth overall); guess where he’s ranked among all players in both leagues, pitchers included: 12th overall. That’s right, the man who couldn’t crack the top 250 players before the season ended up being more valuable fantasy-wise than Robinson Cano, Fernando Rodney, & Gio Gonzalez, at least if you believe Yahoo! Read the rest of this entry »

If you need to see the definition of LVP, then please check out Eno’s article where he describes the fantasy awards that we’re doling out here. You can also just accept that it stands for Least Valuable Player and stay with me right here. It’s pretty self-explanatory, right? And with the title of the piece, obviously you know who won. But rather than just declare Troy Tulowitzki as the guy who screwed fantasy owners over the most and walk away with the shortest article in RotoGraphs history, let’s look into it a little further. Read the rest of this entry »

As the RotoGraphs fantasy awards trickle out, there are many interesting debates. Was Jake Peavy or Chris Sale the better bargain in the American League? Just who was the best buy-low in the National League? However, a couple votes needed far less deliberation — one of those was the National League’s Bull Cy; the relief pitcher for your fantasy squad who cost you the least but brought you most. As such, let’s jump right to the staff voting.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday, I reviewed the hitters who I calculated to be the most overvalued at each position (sans catcher) in the pre-season. Today I will recap those who I figured to be the most undervalued at those positions. And surprise, we actually have a catcher this time. I will begrudgingly use the Yahoo rankings again and hopefully no position eligibility drama will ensue this time around. Just to repeat what I said in the comments of the overvalued article, I base my own valuations/rankings on 20 games played last year and 10 this year. So to keep things consistent, I have to apply the same rules on the Yahoo final season rankings to accurately compare.

Read the rest of this entry »

For my next few posts, I am going to look back at some of my early season player evaluations, good or bad.

Austin Jackson: Breakout Candidate? 4/3

What I said then:

It is way too early to draw any real conclusions from Austin Jackson‘s start to the season. Most of his production has come from a completely unsustainable BABIP [.563]. Besides the high BABIP, he is also showing improved plate discipline. While the sample size is way too small right now, I would continue to track his K% [21%] and see if he has better control over the strike zone as the season goes on. Any chance for a breakout will be tied to lowering his strikeout numbers.

And now:

Everyone knew that the BABIP was unsustainable and it ended up (.371) almost identical to his career value (0.370). Jackson was able to maintain his lower K% over the course of the season and hit for .300 for the first time in the majors.

Justin Morneau: Is There Any Hope? 4/18

What I said then:

Justin Morneau has not had a good start to his season. His walk rate and power seem to be a concern. His walk rate is not out of place when taking into account his IBBs. His power loss is a concern though. He will just have to play more to see if the power loss continues.

And now:

Monrneau had two months of good power after I wrote the article, but he was not able to sustain the power spike and it dropped as the season went on.

ISO
First 2 months: .291
Last 4 months: .132

Average distance on his HR and Flyballs
First 2 months: 302 ft.
Last 4 months: 269 ft

His ISO was cut in half and his batted ball distance saw a loss of over 30 feet.

The weird thing is that he went on the DL in May and when he came back, he had his best month of the season.

Brennan Boesch’s Disappointing Start to the Season 4/23

What I said then:

Brennan Boesch has been a fantasy disappointment this season. …. I would look for some level of rebound, but he needs to hit the ball with more authority to have the season some people anticipated.

And now:

All Boesch had in him was a dead cat bounce. Horrible season.

Wainwright and Pujols: Rough Starts 4/23

What I said then:

Adam’s 2007 season looks to be a nice season to compare to 2012. The fastball velocities are identical. They are the seasons when he had his highest BABIPs (0.304 and 0.325). Adam had is worst season in terms of ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.40) in 2007 until this season happened.

And now:

Season: ERA, WHIP, BABIP, Velocity
2007: 3.70, 1.40 ,.304, 89.4
2012: 3.94, 1.25, .315, 90.1

The two seasons ended being almost similar. At the time of the article, his FIP (6.52), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (3.28) averaged out to 4.31 which is close to his final ERA of 3.94.

What I said then:

Albert has not been living up to his expectation so far this season. Looking over his stats, two values stick out as potential areas of concern, his walk rate and power.

And now:

BB%, NiIBB%
2008: 16%, 8%
2009: 16%, 7%
2010: 15%, 7%
2011: 9%, 6%

4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 7%, 3% (2 of his 5 BB have been IBB)
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 8%, 4%

Year: ISO
2009: 0.331
2010: 0.284
2011: 0.242
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: .108
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 0.245

Year: Flyball and HR batted ball distances
2010: 313 ft
2011: 303 ft
4/1/2012 to 4/23/2012: 275 ft
4/24/2012 to 10/3/2012: 281 ft

Albert was able to rebound a bit from the beginning of the season, but not even close to his previous seasons. I see an Alex Rodriguez fustrating decline happening with Pujols.

Espinosa and Roberts: 2B Ownership Decliners 4/30

What I said then:

After being one of my favorite stories of 2011, I have quickly soured on Roberts. He will have to hit more line drives and less pop ups for his value to go in the positive direction.

And now:

He was able to increase his LD% and decrease his IFFB%.

Triple slash and BABIP at time of article: .159/.243/.254, .188
Triple slash and BABIP after the article: .249/.307/.381, .283

He rebounded, but he will not flirt with a 20/20 season again.

What I said then:

I see no hope right now for Danny. He needs to make improvement in his plate discipline and/or power stroke to become an everyday player at 2B in deep leagues, not alone 10 to 14 team leagues.

And now:

Espinosa wasn’t able to drop his K% or regain his HR power. He has increase his LD% to help bring up his AVG to around 0.250 to make him a somewhat rosterable option.

Walker and Weeks: 2B Ownership Decliners 5/2

What I said then:

While he [Weeks] was a little lucky in 2011, he has been extremely unlucky so far this season. I would expect his AVG to increase as a few more batted balls begin to fall for hits.

And now:

His BABIP did go from 0.207, at the time of the article, to 0.270 over the rest of the season. It did not get to the .300+ BABIP predicted in the article, but it did improve.

What I said then:

Right now, Neil looks like a Plug-n-Play guy if owned in a shallow league. The high average won’t be a drag and he will get a few counting stats. In deeper leagues, the options available on the waiver wire are probably thin, so his owners may just have to ride out the power slump.

And now:

2012 Marcel prediction (closest projection in PA), 2012 stats:
PA: 578, 530
HR: 12, 14
Run: 68, 62
RBI: 72, 69
SB: 7, 7
AVG: .278, .280

Neil Walker ended up producing just like he was expected to produce. I bet he does the same thing next year.

By true definition, at least by Aesop’s fables, the turtle represents the old adage, “slow and steady wins the race.” By our definition, at least how Eno laid it out, the fantasy turtle is the best buy-low/waiver pick-up that dominated in the second half of the season. While some of our awards were fairly unanimous, this one wasn’t, as nine players received votes. Again, the title of the piece tells you that Kris Medlen won, but let’s look a little further into it. Read the rest of this entry »

The RotoGraphs staff was pretty divided on the fantasy turtle in the American League. There were plenty of candidates to choose from, including Max Scherzer, Carlos Santana and Ben Zobrist. But the most interesting player on the list might have been Brandon Moss. A career .251/.358/.442 hitter, the 28-year-old Moss mashed over the second half of the season. His .291/.358/.596 was so unexpected, which likely led to him being available in just about every league. And if you were lucky enough to be the first owner in your league to realize Moss’ performance, you may have walked away with a league title.

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Looking back at the 2012 season, we’re out to attempt to identify players that represent the very best return on the dollar in the respective “award” categories. Recall that this is a best value kind of series, not necessarily the best player.

To that end, we need to award the American League Cy Young to the pitcher who provided you the most production for the least possible cost. And among the staff votes, we have a tie between Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, thus the regrettable title of this piece. And it’s not hard to see why we’re divided.

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I continue my quest at taking a look back at my pre-season predictions and claims by checking in on who I believed to be the most overvalued starting pitchers. Pitcher valuations are easier and there should be less controversy (well, none at all!) over position eligibility. I’ll use Yahoo again, but any obvious relief pitchers who happen to have SP eligibility on the site will not be included in the rankings.

Read the rest of this entry »