Archive for October, 2012

Jason Kipnis: In Need of a Second Half

If yesterday’s series of articles didn’t clue you in, today’s slate certainly will as we continue to go through Zach Sanders’ Second Base End of Season Rankings and discuss individual performances at the position. One of the most notable things about Mr. Sanders’ list is the value range from top second baseman Robinson Cano’s seemingly low $26 down through Trevor Plouffe’s $1 as the 28th ranked second sacker. That indicates the strength found at the position this season and a rookie such as Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis is just one example of how strong this position has become. Read the rest of this entry »


The Strange Case of Dr. Jekyll and Rickie Weeks

In Zach Sanders’ end-of-the-year ranks, Rickie Weeks finished as the 13th best second baseman overall, making him rosterable in any league larger than a 12-team and NL-only leagues of pretty much any depth. While that’s a fair assessment of how Weeks performed over the course of the whole season, it’s not really the best way to look at the way Weeks got there. Consider this:

Weeks from opening day to July 24 (394 PA): .190/.305/.333, 9 HR, 6 SB, 114 K
Weeks from July 25 until the end of the season (283 PA): .282/.360/.488 12 HR, 10 SB 55 K Read the rest of this entry »


Marco Scutaro: Season Review & 2013 Outlook

If you’ve been watching the playoffs (if you’re not, what the hell?) you’ve probably been hearing alot about Marco Scutaro. He didn’t do much of anything in the NLDS against the Reds but has been seemingly impossible to retire in the championship series, hitting .481 as I write this.

Of course, we all know he isn’t quite the Barry Bonds level hitter he’s shown against the Cardinals, but he’s been a steady fantasy contributor for quite some time and that didn’t change in 2012.

His final totals — .306 AVG/7 HR/87 R/74 RBI/9 SB — were good enough for 10th in our end of season second base rankings. Solid all around, but digging deeper into the numbers shows of just how strange Scutaro’s season was. He began his season playing shortstop with the Rockies and you expect any player to get a boost from the thin mountain air of Coors Field. Scutaro, 36, did just that, posting an .812 OPS in 54 home games. It was hitting on the road he had to worry about.

In 95 total games in a Rockies uniform he managed to hit just .271/.324/.361(!). In late July he was traded to San Francisco, and his season took off. Playing 33 games in AT&T Park, one of the best pitchers’ parks in the game, and switching to second base, Scutaro hit .352/.399/.488 and managed a. 859 overall OPS with the Giants. He hit better in San Francisco than Colorado. Let that sink in for a second.

Of his 74 runs batted in an amazing 24 came in September/October, tied for the seventh most in baseball. It helped that the Giants offense turned it on in the last month and scored the third most runs in National League over that time.

Scutaro’s biggest strength is his ability to put balls into play. He lead the league in O-Contact% (89%), Z-Contact% (98%) and overall Contact% (95.3%). On a related note, he also had the lowest swinging strike percentage (1.8%). When you don’t have a lot of power being able to put the ball in play is an important skill and Scutaro is king.

It was a fine season, but what does it mean for 2013? Well, probably not much. For one, we don’t know where he’s going to be playing. He’s a free agent at season’s end and while it’s very possible the Giants bring him back, some other team is likely to throw money at a second basemen who hit .306. He’s also not going to hit as well as he did the final month of the season. The .400 BABIP and .402 average are going to be tough to maintain. It happened and we can’t take it away from him but I’m afraid some people’s opinions may be skewed by it. Without that amazing month he ends up lower than 10th in our rankings.

He’s a starter in most mixed leagues thanks to his eligibility at shortstop, but he’s going to be 37 come October 30th and got a little lucky last season. I’d rather take my chances with Jose Altuve, Neil Walker or gamble on a bounce back from Rickie Weeks.


What The NLCS Has Taught Us About The Giants

Learning fantasy lessons in the postseason is a tricky affair. By its nature, a postseason series is a small sample. Also by its nature, a postseason series receives greater emphasis, fair (the games are high leverage when compared to a mid-season tilt) or not (they’re still just seven games). Even though the statistics are kept separately and are often out of mind, though, the fact that this is still baseball means that there is something that can be gleaned from it.

Read the rest of this entry »


Players ottoneu Loved (and Hated): 2B Edition

In last week’s edition, we saw a couple first basemen who made pretty large jumps when we looked at them through the prism of ottoneu, rather than Zach Sanders’s rankings. Well, ottoneu doesn’t love any second basemen as much as it loves Joey Votto and Paul Konerko, who were ranked 11 and 7 spots higher in ottoneu points than they were in the 5×5 rankings.

In fact, when Sanders posted his 2B rankings yesterday, I was surprised to see that no one was ranked more than five spots lower in 5×5 than in ottoneu, with only a couple relevant players ranked even six spots higher. But a couple of players moved from borderline top-10 to the top-4, while two others dropped from 4th and 6th to 10th and 12th.

Read the rest of this entry »


Kelly Johnson: Aging With Style

Fantasy owners hoped for a bounce back in 2012 after Kelly Johnson regressed in 2011 after a superb 2010 season. A second baseman with 16 HRs and 14 SBs normally would have a relatively high fantasy ranking. Johson was only able to hit .225 and therefor was ranked 24th overall in Zach Sander’s postseason 2B rankings. Kelly Johnson may bounce back in a in 2013, but age is beginning to catch up with him.

Read the rest of this entry »


Allen Craig: The Wrench Loses a Key

Pablo Sandoval at catcher. Josh Willingham at catcher. Trevor Plouffe at shorstop. Allen Craig at second base.

Every once in a while, a young player comes up to the bigs in a unique situation that pumps positional-based fantasy value into their early career numbers. Most of the time, it’s because they’ve been attempting to man a position on their way up, and though it’s been obvious that they wouldn’t continue to hack it at that position, they’ve played enough games during the process of coming to that realization that their rookie season still features that remnant.

So Allen Craig will never be a second baseman again, most likely. According to Zach Sanders’ end-of-season rankings, the 28-year-old put up the fifth-best fantasy season by a second baseman in 2012, so he’ll be missed at the position. In rooting around for that lost eligibility in the bottom of the toolbox, you might notice a few other dings in your Allen Wrench, as well.

Read the rest of this entry »


Ian Kinsler and the Value of Hitting Leadoff

From a fantasy perspective, Ian Kinsler performed almost exactly as I expected. After an incredible 30-30 season in 2011, I assumed a bit of regression would be in order. I also wondered if he could manage to stay healthy and play in over 150 games in two straight seasons, so in that regard he was a smashing success.

For the second straight season, Kinsler led the Texas Rangers in both plate appearances and runs scored. Given that the Rangers ranked third and first in runs scored in 2011 and 2012 respectively shouldn’t come as a surprise either. Kinsler possesses the rare gift of being able to hit for power and draw walks all while keeping his strikeouts in check and his contract rate high. That he can steal bases is just the icing on top. If only we could pencil him in for a .300 average, he would be the ideal fantasy player.
Read the rest of this entry »


Howie Kendrick: Still Fantasy Relevant?

The legend of Howie Kendrick was written prematurely. If you were playing fantasy baseball in 2006, there’s a good chance you heard about a young Angels prospect named Howie Kendrick. Most importantly, you heard about his incredible bat control. Here was a guy that was a lock to win at least one batting title in his career, and had enough power to eventually reach 20 home runs in a single season. Considering he’s slashed .360/.403/.569 throughout his minor league career, it looked like those numbers would actually be attainable.

While things looked pretty promising early in his career, Kendrick struggled with injuries, which limited his production. Soon, the narrative became “if he can stay healthy, he’ll put together a really nice season.” But when Kendrick did manage to play in 158 in 2010, his results were less than encouraging. Just as people started to give up on Kendrick, his performance restored some faith. In 2011, it looked as if Kendrick had finally tapped into his power. The disappointment continued this season, however. Kendrick’s power plummeted back to normal levels. Unless he cap tap back into that power, he’s going to have minimal fantasy value going forward.

Read the rest of this entry »


Dustin Ackley: Disappointing Sophomore, Breakout Junior?

This morning, Zach Sanders sprinkled his fairy dust and like magic, every second baseman’s season stat line produced a dollar value. Sitting down at 21, with earnings of a mere $4, is the Mariners sophomore, Dustin Ackley. Though he had just 333 big league at-bats to his name heading into the season, the RotoGraphs pre-season rankers were actually relatively agreeable about our performance expectations. His rank sat in a narrow range between 13 and 17, which was a bit surprising for a young guy who many people really liked, and others, not so much.

Read the rest of this entry »