Archive for October, 2012

10 Bold Predictions Re-visited

The word “re-visited” can have two very different connotations depending on what it is you are re-visiting. Re-visiting a place or a time you loved – your childhood home perhaps, or your college campus – can be filled with nostalgia, happy memories and joy. Of course you can also re-visit something that makes you depressed, something that brings back horrible memories or terrible feelings.

Unfortunately, this article is likely to be more of the latter than the former. Prior to the start of the season, I laid out ten bold predictions and not only did most of them not come to fruition (which is to be expected as they were, after all, bold predictions), but many of them failed spectacularly. But, accountability matters, and so today I present to you a retrospective on ten bold predictions gone wrong.

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Roto Riteup: October 2, 2012

If my writing seems (extra), blame it on the fact that I am watching my A’s tangle against the Texas Rangers. Call me crazy (call me maybe. Hey, I still like that song. It’s so dang catchy ), but I’m looking forward to seeing my A’s sweep the Rangers and win the West. And yes, I’m writing this while the game is still in the third inning.

• You know that song that goes “I’m trying to find the way to describe this girl without being disrespectful?” Well, I’m trying to find words to describe Jonathan Lucroy without being over the top. As I’m sure you all know by now, I tend to punt the catcher spot(s) in favor of streaming them as the season goes on. I picked up Lucroy in two leagues about a little more than a month ago and I haven’t stopped playing him yet. His ownership rate in both Yahoo! and ESPN is finally above the 50% threshold, so it seems as though others have taken note as well. Lucroy powered his 16th 12th home run of the season yesterday and those home runs have come in less than 400 plate appearances. Looking ahead to next season I sincerely think about drafting him as my #1 catcher and merely streaming my #2 spot.
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Tuesday Pitcher Streaming Options

I am doing the streaming pitchers dumpster diving edition. As Eno just pointed out, tomorrow looks like the day to mass stream. I will only be looking at pitchers owned in 10% or less of all leagues at Yahoo.

Notice – Don’t worry about streaming pitcher’s hurting a team’s WHIP values. It is the last few days of the season and players are really not care too much about winning, except those on a few teams. The players are hacking away and walk rates drop by about 10% over the last few days of the season.

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Stream Hard Tuesday — Not Wednesday

If you’re coming down to the final three days of your last head-to-head baseball matchup of the year, or your roto league is a nail-biter, and your league has innings limits, then you might be thinking about taking advantage of a loophole that allows you to pile on innings in the day your limit is reached. This is definitely an option in Yahoo, as Jeff Zimmerman pointed out.

If you’re looking at a mass stream day, then Tuesday is your man. Wednesday is such a flake.

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AL OF Stream Edition: Part III

This marks the final version of the American League outfield stream edition and the AL OF rankings and updates as well. It’s been a learning experience and a pleasure. Given the seasons final three games, here are some freely available options that you may want to consider.

Trevor Plouffe – Admittedly, I have fluctuated on what I think of Plouffe an awful lot this season. I still question his talent being stretched over a full season again, but in a three game set in a very home run friendly ball park in the Rogers Centre, I like him to homer once — maybe even more than that. StatCorner has Toronto’s home park at a 119 on their right-handed HR index, making it a well above average place for power righties. Plouffe is available in 30% of Yahoo! leagues and 27% of ESPN leagues. He is healthy and playing.
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Revisiting My Preseason 10 Bold Predictions

Prior to the season my esteemed colleagues and I put together a list of ten bold predictions, some of which actually came true. Here is a recap of Brandon Warne’s predictions and Howard Bender’s predictions, and now let’s look at mine

1. A-Rod will hit 30 HR
Alex Rodriguez is sitting on 18 homers with three (maybe four if the Yankees have to play a Game 163 tie-breaker) games to play, so this one won’t happen. He did miss roughly six weeks with a broken bone in his left hand suffered on a Felix Hernandez hit-by-pitch, but even before the injury he had hit just 15 homers in 97 team games (25 HR per 162 games). A-Rod’s days of 30+ homers are over, as are his days of 600+ plate appearances it seems. This prediction was a bust.

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Is Jake Peavy A Keeper?

Jake Peavy has been one of fantasy’s biggest surprises this season. While Peavy had been an ace with the San Diego Padres, his time with the Chicago White Sox left quite a bit to be desired. Though he missed time with various injuries, the biggest one came last season. Peavy tore his right latissimus dorsi tendon completely off the bone. No major league pitcher had ever suffered from that injury. Because of that, no one knew what to expect from Peavy. After a resurgent 2012, Peavy has re-established himself as a fantasy ace. But he still carries considerable risk, which could make him a questionable keeper for next season.

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Potential NL SP Strikeout Rate Decliners

On Saturday, I checked in on the National League starting pitchers whose SwStk% suggests a strikeout rate surge may be coming next season. Today, I will identify the pitchers whose SwStk% suggests the opposite side of the coin, those whose strikeout rate may be in for a decline next year. As a reminder, the league average is a 7.3 K/9 and 8.6% SwStk%.

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Roto Riteup: October 1, 2012

With apologies to the dear reader(s), I have been quite ill for the past few days. That being said, a pack of wild Kate Uptons couldn’t keep me away from the last three days of baseball action.

• If it seems like I just wrote about Brett Lawrie hitting a home run, it’s because I did. That being said, Lawrie hit another home run yesterday during his three hit game and he boosted his slugging over .400 for the season. It is a far cry from the .580 SLG that he displayed in 2011, but as previously stated, I’m still high on him for 2013.
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