On Thursday, I reviewed my official 10 bold predictions. This pre-season, I took it one step further and decided to throw out 10 more bold predictions. Let’s see if these fare any better than the first set.
First off, I’d say no. Very loudly, no. No, no, no. It’s a fools errand if you think you can predict a .399 slugging percentage into .498; a .110 ISO into .212; a HR per-at bat rate of 95 (!) to just 19. Nuts.
However, were there some lingering details about Chase Headley’s batting profile that should have made fantasy owners perhaps a little more bullish on his 2012 prospects? Probably.
Back in December, I suggested you might take a chance on Headley. An excerpt:
“I simply do not accept that Headley’s true talent, even considering the Petco effect, is something in the low 100′s in ISO. He’s turning 28 in May, he’s demonstrated much more power in the past, and if I were a betting type, I’d say we could see something more in the .140′s — which doesn’t turn him into a masher, but it would certainly portend more home runs in the future.”
“If you change your mind, I’m the first in line. Honey I’m still free; take a chance on me” –Abba
A very popular fantasy football radio show on Saturday mornings uses these lyrics — often sung by different artists or even Andy Bernard from The Office — to open up a segment on players to take a chance on for that week’s action. In fact, the headliner on the show is Paul Charchian, a fantasy football legend in Minnesota and quite frankly, probably across the United States.
When I was invited to the Fangraphs Staff League II in Ottoneu, I quite honestly had no idea what to expect. I didn’t expect an eight hour, two day draft. Neither did my wife. I didn’t really understand fantasy auctions all that well, so I just went ultra-conservative, like I do in fantasy football auctions as well. Read the rest of this entry »
Freedom from shame at least. They were supposed to be bold. So let’s revisit those predictions.
[Sorry no chat today, gotta get my stuff done before heading to the city for the Bay Area meetup. And sorry for abrupt ending last week, got an important call.]
As you’ll notice around RotoGraphs this week, many of my fine colleagues are looking back at their “10 Bold Predictions” from before the season and seeing how many of them came true. Having joined the team late, I had time to make only one prediction before the season started: “Andre Ethier Is Going To Have a Huge Season”. You can click back to that article to read the full explanation of why, but it basically came down to two reasons – first, he was finally healthy after two years of finger & knee troubles, and second, he would likely be motivated to prove his worth as he headed into his free agent year. I argued that if everything broke right, he could be a steal as a potential top-15 outfielder who was routinely going in the mid-30s in spring drafts. It didn’t quite happen; Ethier ranked outside the top-30 in most of the major ranking systems.
On the surface, Ethier’s 2012 looked a lot like his 2011, compiling a .348 wOBA as opposed to the previous year’s .343. (An increase in slugging percentage was mostly offset by a lesser OBP.) So what went wrong? For the first two months, not a whole lot, actually; like he’d done in the previous two seasons, Ethier got off to a hot start, hitting .324/.381/.569 with nine homers through the end of May. Read the rest of this entry »
The fantasy baseball season is officially over. Whether you won your league or stopped playing weeks ago, there’s a lot to take away from the past season. While wounds are still fresh for some of you, it’s always important to reflect on your fantasy team. Knowing where you went wrong, or what went right can help you formulate a winning strategy in future seasons. As you look back on your team, here are a few things to keep in mind for next season.
There I was, waging a fierce comeback. I was in second place, down 12.5 points in my friend’s 12-team 7×7 mixed, roto league with just over two weeks remaining in the regular season. The point differential seemed massive, but not impossible. There might be an ‘I’ in ‘quit,’ but not now. Not today. I took a long, hard look at the standings and assessed the situation. Read the rest of this entry »
Hopefully we helped you win some gummibears this year in your leagues. Since we work hard at this, we would love to hear about your successes. Not that we ran your teams, but this is a collective on some level. I know I’ve learned from you and I hope I’ve helped you along the way. So when you gloat or brag here, you gloat or brag for the RotoGraphs crew.
Represent!
[Also: Bay Area people, come to the FanGraphs meetup on Friday at 21st Amendment! I’ll be there shortly after the early game starts, but we officially begin at four. See you there?]
I made a lot of predictions this pre-season, from the most undervalued and overvalued players to those of the bold variety to individual player projections. I will try to review as many of those as I can and I’ll start with the 10 bold predictions that the rest of the staff has been recapping.
Congratulations to all of you league champions out there! I hope that the RotoGraphs staff played no small part in helping you along the way to victory. For those of us who didn’t win any leagues this year (myself included), we’ll go get em next season. Much like the Chicago Cubs: there’s always next year!
Now — and with apologies to our regularly scheduled content — since I am a lucky enough position to speak on such a public forum, I’d like to dedicate this space to the Oakland Athletics.
Read the rest of this entry »