On Thursday, I looked at American League starting pitchers who showed up on the last 30 day SIERA leaderboards that would be considered surprising. Today, I will cover the entire league, but look at the opposite end of the spectrum. These are the pitchers whose skills have really declined over the last 30 days. Is it the beginning of a trend or just small sample randomness over a long season? Let’s find out.
• Big trade in the bullpen world that became official early this morning. The Astros sent J.A. Happ, Brandon Lyon, and a minor leaguer to Toronto for Francisco Cordero, Ben Francisco, and a collection of five more players. Obviously, for this column’s sake, the two most important players in the deal are Lyon and Cordero. Lyon (4.07 xFIP) moves from an Astros bullpen where he might have been a closing option in the semi-likely event Brett Myers gets traded to a bullpen where Casey Janssen’s 2.83 xFIP and 13-for-13 conversion rate has a stranglehold on the closing job. Lyon will likely see marginally more holds for a slightly better Blue Jays team, but he’ll move into a far tougher division from an opposing hitter standpoint. Cordero is the far more intriguing piece for fantasy purposes, moving from a team where he was fully blocked from racking up saves to an Astros squad actively looking to move their current closer in Brett Myers. Cordero hasn’t pitched well this season, although a 0.366 BABIP is keeping his ERA (5.77) more than a full run higher than his xFIP (4.64). With Wilton Lopez back from the disabled list, he seems like the favorite for saves if Myers departs Houston, but, coming into the season, Cordero had saved at least 10 games every year since 2002, so even with iffy peripherals, he might get a whiff thanks to prior experience.
This week’s two-start bunch is a group of high-ceiling arms — most of them with tough matchups this week — many of whom I’ve already recommended a time or two this season.
RHP Jeff Samardzija (26.0 percent ESPN/36 percent Yahoo!) – @PIT (.300), v. STL (.331) Read the rest of this entry »
In 2009, 25-year-old Adam Lind looked like a breakout star for Toronto. Splitting time between left field and designated hitter, Lind put up a massive .305/.370/.562 line for the Blue Jays, which along with 35 homers earned him some down-ballot MVP support and a Silver Slugger award. That performance earned him a new contract prior to 2010, one which guarantees him $18 million through 2013 and includes team options for up to $38.5 million between 2014-16.
Lind was unable to repeat that line in 2010, as his strikeout rate shot from 16.8% to 23.5% and his OBP sunk nearly 100 points to .287, though he still managed 23 homers. 2011 – now as Toronto’s primary first baseman – saw more of the same, as 26 homers weren’t enough to offset a .251/.295/.439 line. When he struggled even more, hitting just .186/.273/.314 with three homers in May of this year, the Jays removed him from the roster and placed him on waivers, inviting any other team to pick him up for nothing but the cost of his contract.
No one did. Read the rest of this entry »
Congratulations, you’ve almost made it through another week of work. The only thing that separates you from that sweet, sweet weekend is one short work day. I’d suggest reading today’s Roto Riteup at work (unless you’re a pilot or surgeon or something) that way it shortens your work day even more. Just make sure you ALT+TAB if the boss walks passed.
• Luke Scott went 2-4 yesterday and hit his 12th home run of the year. He now has at least two hits in three of his past four games. When he is facing off against right-handed pitching, Scott can still do damage. His average and on-base percentage won’t win you any leagues, but he does now have 10 home runs against righties. If you’re hurting in the OF or at CI, Scott could slide in and give you some pop there. Scott is currently available in over 85% of both ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
Read the rest of this entry »
• Santiago Casilla blew his fifth save in his last eight chances on Wednesday evening, and although Bruce Bochy wouldn’t “commit to making an immediate change”, he acknowledged that “there does come a time with every player when you have to change it up.” Casilla has been terrible as of late, which could be attributed to the apparent blister he suffered prior to the All-Star Break, or his inability to keep balls in the park (19.4 HR/FB%). Even with the recent struggles, Casilla’s 23 saves are good enough for seventh best in the Majors and ranks him third amongst National League closers. Should the Giants make a change from within the organization, Sergio Romo and his 0.66 ERA (2.69 xFIP) and 0.73 WHIP await patiently. Rumors have also indicated that the Giants have “heavily scouted” the Royals and Cubs Triple-A affiliates, and if the price drops a bit on Jonathan Broxton, they could be interested.
Read the rest of this entry »
Replacing Joey Votto is something of a misnomer, since unless Andrew McCutchen is just sitting on the wire, any other player picked up to replace Votto is going to be a downgrade. At this point, those who have sullenly placed their star first baseman on the DL have two tasks: Limit the damage and pray for a quick recovery. The latter is between you and the vengeful, capricious fantasy gods, but the former can be helped. The best available option is going to depend entirely on specific leagues, as there are a couple good options that are available in about 50 percent of leagues, but each may not be available in any given league. Noted in parentheses are each player’s ownership, listed as (ESPN owned; Yahoo owned). Read the rest of this entry »
Felix Doubront is owned in just 39% of Yahoo! leagues, which seems excessively low given his performance in his first season as a major league starting pitcher. While the 4.24 ERA is not incredibly impressive, Doubront has struck out 22.5% of batters faced, averaging just under a strikeout per inning.
Maybe the reference is lost on some here as the movie dates back to 1977, but during the original Bad News Bears movies, the second installment “Breaking Training”, the boys find themselves playing against some Texas Little League team at the old Astrodome. But the game gets called due to time constraints and little foul-mouthed Tanner, in protest, refuses to leave the field. The umpires chase him around in some Keystone Kop-like silliness while the entire stadium chants, “Let them play” until the higher ups finally acquiesce and the boys are allowed to finish their ballgame. I bring this up here because I am that Astrodome crowd. You are those higher ups. And your fantasy team is running around the field right now, cuttin’ and runnin’ and flinging bases at you just trying to finish the game. Read the rest of this entry »
A simple way to determine which pitchers are “hot” is to use the Split filter and choose any one of the small time frames and then sort by SIERA. Since I think subtle changes in mechanics and other various factors could actually trigger a performance spike, I believe looking at the SIERA leaders over the last 30 days could be useful despite the small sample size. Here are some of the surprise leaders in the metric over that time span.