• Joe Nathan pitched  a scoreless ninth inning last night for his 14th save of the year and currently has a 1.63 ERA with the peripherals to back it up. Nathan is showing the elite strikeout ability he had in his prime on the Twins, striking out 31.7% of the batters he has faced this year. However, what is really outstanding about Nathan this year is his walk rate which is currently a career low and league leading  0.65 BB/9. If you add it all up Nathan is pitching to a 2.13 xFIP on one of the better teams in the league — a great recipe for success and many saves. Nathan didn’t have the best year in 2011 after recovering from Tommy John surgery and many people suspected that Neftali Feliz or Mike Adams would take over the closing gig in Texas in 2012, but Nathan has had a fantastic season thus far and should be regarded as one of the top closers in the game again.

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Casey McGehee (ESPN: 4 percent owned; Yahoo!: 5 percent owned)

After scoring the fewest runs in baseball in both April and May, the Pirates’ offense seems to have come to life a bit in June. They’re one of the 10 highest scoring offenses in baseball so far this month and while that’s not the highest bar imaginable, the fact that their offense has become more than just Andrew McCutchen and the Pips is a big part of the reason that the Jolly Roger has been raised so many times this month. While Pedro Alvarez may lead the team with four home runs this month, no Pirate has a higher OPS than Casey McGehee, whose .366/.458/.659 month so far leads the team in all three slash categories (min 3 PAs). Read the rest of this entry »

A thousand pardons for this being late, I know you all planned your Monday’s around this.

Bullish:
Ryan Kalish – With recent sidelining of Ryan Sweeney to the 15-day disabled list with a stress fracture in his toe, the Boston Red Sox have called up Kalish to take his spot. Pre-2010, Kalish was a good prospect, even ranking in Baseball America’s top 100 in 2008. He hit well at every level and was promoted to the big leagues in late July of 2010 at the age 22. Unfortunately, injuries in 2011 to his neck and shoulder threw off his trajection of staying in the big leagues. He is now healthy and back in the majors. As for his fantasy relevance, he is currently OF eligible, but he may soon be CF eligible as well. He was never much of a power threat in the minors, but he offers some walks with gap power. He runs a little bit too, and in his 179 plate appearance performance in 2010 he managed to nab 10 stolen bases and was caught just once. Keep an eye on his strikeouts though, as his Triple-A strikeout rate has never been below 20%. If you need outfield help, or are just replacing Sweeney, Kalish could be a decent bet. I have a team that has been ravaged by injuries, so I’m taking a flier on him. He is owned in 1% of both Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.

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How’s that for a nerdy title. At least you know what you’re going to get. Using slash12’s updated xBABIP formula outlined by Jeff Zimmerman yesterday (with the 2009-2011 constants in place), we can look at players that ‘should’ be showing better BABIPs than they are right now. Since the constants in the formula change a little from year to year, let’s use the list as a general guide to batted ball luck instead of a specific prescription for doom or boon for each player.

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For the most part, the catcher position has been a pretty big disappointment this season.  Some have performed as expected, but by and large, there are more downs than ups.  Hopefully, things will pick up in the second half when we get a serious influx of players coming back from injuries who might be better options than the Nick Hundley, Miguel Olivo, or Jason Castro that you have sitting in your catcher slot right now.  They’re not all precious gems coming back, but some are definitely better than others and likely better than what’s out on your waiver wire as well. Read the rest of this entry »

Summer is (almost) officially upon us and if your teams are anything like mine, you are starting to feel the injuries more than the heat this June (maybe that is because the heat hasn’t come to Seattle yet, but still). Every year, at least one of my teams gets hit by an injury bug and I am left scrambling for replacement players and trying to figure out how to make room for a stop-gap at multiple positions when I really don’t have anyone I want to cut loose.

When that happens, I look for the Multiple Position Temps. These are not the guys you expect to carry you to a title, but players you can pick up, fill in as needed, maybe get some decent stats, and weather the storm until you starting infield makes its way back to full healthy. Most importantly, you can grab one of these guys, use him at 3-4 positions, and not have to scramble every time a spot in your lineup opens up.

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Today’s Roto Riteup has its’ finest moment at the end, in the recommendations. You can take your inverted pyramid and shove it.

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• It wasn’t a clean save tonight for Chris Perez as he gave up two hits and a run against the Reds, but he still notched his league leading 22nd save of the year. Chris Perez has an ERA (2.73) that is lower than his peripherals would indicate (3.81 xFIP) but even if he regresses, Perez has a firm grasp on the role in Cleveland which isn’t something I thought I would be saying in the Bullpen Report in March. The man expected to replace Perez, Vinnie Pestano, is  having a great year himself with a strikeout rate of 11.67 K/9 and a solid 3.31 xFIP but unless Perez is traded or injured, Pestano won’t be seeing regular save opportunities any time soon.

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A few days ago, I looked at the effects the shift may be having on players using the difference between their BABIP and xBABIP. The observed drop in a player’s BABIP, compared to their xBABIP, was 41 points. As reader phoenix2042 pointed out, I was using a dated formula for xBABIP. By using an updated xBABIP formula, I still found a difference, but not as much of one.

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As you get older, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on your belt. A danish or three and you might need to reevaluate that notch you’ve worn into your favorite leather strap. As your fantasy team progresses, you might want to keep an eye on your Brandon Belt, too. A home run or three, and you might want to reevaluate that notch he’s worn into your team’s bench.

Certainly, the news is better today than it was even just a week ago. He’s now got three home runs and looks to have a handle on at least three-quarters of the playing time at first base in San Francisco. Especially now that Aubrey Huff Kendrys Morales‘d that Matt Cain celebration, the position is mostly Belt’s to own. He’s always had patience, too, so in OBP leagues — especially those with five outfielder slots — he’s already a boon. But the question still remains: what is his true-talent power level?

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