Fastball velocity is one of the most important numbers to focus on in a pitcher’s statistical toolbox. It has a high correlation with strikeout rate and when we saw an increase in velocity, good things should follow. Early on, we have heard about many starting pitchers suffering from a loss in fastball velocity, but some are actually enjoying a spike. I decided to only compare a starter’s velocity using the “Last 7 Days” filter so as to hopefully capture just the pitcher’s last start (or maybe two in some cases), since velocity does tend to increase throughout the season. These are the 10 pitchers with the largest increases so far:

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Up until last night, Tom Wilhelmsen was my highest scorer in ottoneu, a league in which I own Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Robinson Cano, and Dan Haren, to name a few. Mike Minor’s great outing launched him past the Mariner set-up man, but Wilhelmsen’s value through the first two weeks of the season should be noted.

In any holds league, Wilhelmsen is looking like a quality add, if he is even still available. In ottoneu he is especially valuable due to his SP/RP eligibility — he started 12 games in triple-A last year. Since moving to a relief role last year, Wilhelmsen is an entirely different pitcher than he was as a stater. His strikeout rate in the majors of 24% easily trumps that of his triple-A mark last year of 14.7%. This is relatively common with relievers, and it is one reason why you often see set-up men like Wilhelmsen come out of nowhere to become extremely reliable.

Wilhelmsen packs a 95mph four-seam fastball which sets the tone for his curveball, which has been rather effective so far this year. His two-pitch repertoire, along with the occasional change up, fits well in a back end role.

ZiPS does not like Wilhelmsen for the rest of the season, giving him a 1.34 K/BB for the remainder of the year. I don’t think this does him justice, as his sample size as a reliever is too small to judge him accurately in a projection system — ZiPS also has him starting nine games which will not happen.

With three holds already, he looks like he is entrenched in the set-up role and could be next in line for saves if something happened to Brandon League. As mentioned, the sample size for Wilhelmsen is rather small, so picking him up will require at least a bit of speculation that his performance to date is not luck filled. From my vantage point, it looks reliable, and in acquiring him in the FanGraphs ottoneu league I am showing my faith in him. I picked him up for just $1, and he should be owned in all ottoneu leagues. In other holds leagues, he is one of the top guys that should be targeted on the waiver wire, and he could provide value in his rate stats for deeper leagues or in AL-only formats.

Injury and ineffectiveness have a way of creating opportunity for players many of us have never even heard of. Or at least if we’ve heard of them, we never thought we’d actually consider putting them on our fantasy baseball squad. Enter Matt Carpenter, A.J. Pollock, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

All three are either short-term or speculative grabs at the moment, but it wouldn’t take a whole lot for each of them to fall into regular playing time – and given than none of them have ownership rates north of 5% (alright, Matt Carpenter broke 5% overnight), they’re at the right price. Call it “extreme” deep league waiver wire if you like.

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Baby? Baby? This is fantasy, man. We take this stuff seriously. The baby can wait.

FYI: The stats in this post do not include yesterday’s games. It’s late and we haven’t updated yet.

After two games back in the starting lineup, the Cardinals placed Lance Berkman on the DL yesterday with a slightly torn calf muscle. It kept him on the bench for four games last weekend, but Puma re-aggravated the injury running after a foul ball on Wednesday. Our consensus rankings had Berkman as the 12th best fantasy first baseman coming into the season, and he did nothing to make us look foolish by posting a .437 wOBA in 30 plate appearances before hitting the DL.

Here are three potential fill-in first baseman to help you weather the storm while Berkman recovers…

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• Yes, Yu Darvish held a high-powered Detroit offense to one run in 6.1 innings. Yes, he struck out five guys and only allowed seven baserunners. It’s too bad that five of those baserunners were walks. Control like that is going to hurt him in the long run, if only because it will keep him from racking up longer outings and TeH WiNZ. From watching him, it seems like he has decent control, but that something is still off. Maybe it’s getting used to the new strike zone. Maybe it’s a mechanical issue. It’s tempting to say we know what Darvish is — another nibbler from the NPB — but even the complete sample of pitchers that have come to America from that league is small. And three starts certainly isn’t enough to condemn him. It might be interesting, if you have a fungible hot-starting pitcher (Matt Harrison, Kyle Lohse and Barry Zito come to mind), to attempt a buy-low that won’t hurt you if it goes wrong.

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There’s nothing more depressing than watching an athlete refuse to admit that the career is over. I understand the feelings involved and the internal struggles one has with their own diminished abilities and, in essence, their own mortality, but there comes a point where you just have to say, “enough is enough,” and learn to walk away from the game gracefully. Between Andy Pettitte‘s comeback with the Yankees, Jamie Moyer’s 78 mph fastball and the Indians’ recent signing of Johnny Damon, we’re seeing it far too much in baseball and every day is starting to look like Old Timer’s Day.

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Francisco Liriano (ESPN: 13 percent owned, Yahoo!: 37 percent owned)

I get the sense that if I were to go on a 2500 word rant about Liriano’s inconsistency and how frustrating it is to own a pitcher who can either make or break a rotation I’d probably find a fair amount of support in the comments. For sanity’s sake, I’ll save that for another time, but that doesn’t change the fact that Liriano’s last 8 weeks are the kind of puzzle that makes me want to swear off fantasy sports. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Diamondbacks went out and signed Jason Kubel to play left field last December, many observers were aghast, arguing that even if he was a small improvement on offense over Gerardo Parra, the enormous gap in their defensive skills would make the transaction a net downgrade at a position Arizona already had depth at. For a team attempting to defend their NL West title, it certainly seemed like they could have found a better use for the 15 million dollars they gave to Kubel.

Two weeks into the season, Chris Young is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, Justin Upton is doing his best to avoid joining him with a thumb injury, and the previously overstuffed Arizona outfield is suddenly an area of deep concern in the desert. While neither injury is expected to be a long-term issue, the Diamondbacks won’t have both players back in the lineup together until early May at the soonest. Young’s injury is a particularly tough blow, since the center fielder was off to a fantastic (if completely unsustainable) .410/.500/.897 start with five homers in the early going. As for Upton, he’s off to a horrendous start, still seeking his first home run and RBI, though the fact that he did pinch-run in the 9th against Pittsburgh on Wednesday does indicate that the Diamondbacks intend to keep him off the disabled list for now. Even if that’s the case, his thumb has clearly affected his play, so expect additional time off, diminished performance, or both until he is fully healed.

For fantasy players also suddenly down an outfielder – and you shouldn’t need me to tell you that Upton & Young are each owned in just about every league imaginable – the immediate action is to look internally, because Parra should now see daily playing time. He started in left with Kubel moved over to right yesterday, though expect him to see time at all three positions. In addition, 24-year-old A.J. Pollock was recalled from Triple-A Reno to make his major league debut. (For exceptionally deep leaguers, Pollock is a 2009 first-round pick who stole 36 bases in Double-A last year, though without much power. The chain reaction there is that 23-year-old outfielder Adam Eaton, who has done nothing but hit since being drafted in 2010, has now been pushed to Triple-A to take Pollock’s spot.)

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In the winter and spring we often hear about how a player wants to steal more bases to add another dimension to the came. Often times this is just talk, but there are always a few players who surprise some with their legs through the first few weeks of the season. Here are three players I have been surprised about in regards to how frequently they have run and how successful they have been so far.

Mat Gamel

In 12 games this season, Gamel has already surpassed his entire stolen base total from last year, when he played 138 games between triple-A and the majors. He is currently 3-0 in stolen bases, and while he has hit decently enough to get consideration in NL only leagues or as a corner infielder, adding the speed dimension to his game could make him substantially more valuable. It is unclear at this point if running will become a regular part of his game, but it is worth monitoring how many times he runs over the next few weeks and worth speculating if you are in a deeper league.

Carlos Beltran

Beltan’s tremendous start to the season has been evident in more places than just at the plate. He has played solid right field defense and has also been effective on the base paths. He has attempted a steal four times and has been successful with three of them. The re-addition of speed to Beltran’s game looks like it could be sustainable as long as he stays healthy, and the Cardinals could run him a lot as he is hitting regularly in the two-spot in the lineup. The days of 25+ steals are likely well past Beltran, but I could see him reaching the upper teens with a healthy season.

Jason Heyward

Heyward has been a fantasy machine so far in 2012, currently ranking 26th overall in Yahoo! leagues. The ranking would be higher with more runs and RBI, but his average, home runs, and steals are all looking good so far. The steals have been especially surprising, as he is already stolen four bases on four attempts. If you look at ESPN.com’s projected player card, which just projects current stats over a 162 game season, Heyward would steal 54 bases. Obviously he will not reach that mark, but he could reach 30 steals if he remains healthy and productive offensively throughout the year. If you took a risk on drafting Heyward after his poor 2011, you are currently getting everything you could have hoped for and more in the early parts of 2012 — especially on the base paths.