Opening Day 4.0 chat!

Among all the match-ups on Opening Day — no, not that Opening Day, or that one, you know, the other one — one of the more intriguing for fantasy purposes might have been Atlanta opening their season in New York against the Mets, despite each club coming off 2011 campaigns they’d just as soon forget. (For radically different reasons, of course.) That’s because it allowed us to finally see some real, live data on two immensely talented starters each attempting to return from serious injuries, Johan Santana & Tommy Hanson.

Santana’s situation is well-known at this point, so we’ll just hit on the basics. Once one of the best pitchers in the sport while with Minnesota, he joined the Mets after 2007 and put up two-and-a-half solid (if not quite vintage) seasons in New York before succumbing to left shoulder surgery that cut his 2010 season short on September 2. Santana never did make it back in 2011 despite several attempts, perhaps not an altogether surprising outcome considering that the surgery he required had rarely been performed on a big league pitcher before, with the procedures which had occurred yielding considerably mixed results.

Hanson is six-and-a-half years Santana’s junior and not nearly as accomplished, though his three short years in the bigs have quickly proven him to be among the brightest young pitchers in the game. Hanson’s three-year FIP puts him right in between Cole Hamels & Matt Cain, while his swinging strike percentage over that same period is equal to that of Zack Greinke & Adam Wainwright. The Atlanta righty had increased his strikeout rate to nearly ten per nine in 2011 before seeing his season come to an end on August 6 after shoulder tendonitis. He was able to avoid surgery, but did manage to further terrify both Braves fans and fantasy owners alike by getting into a car accident in February which resulted in a mild concussion.

So after months of speculation about whether either would even be ready for April and what caliber of pitcher they’d be after their arm troubles, Santana and Hanson squared off against each other on Opening Day in Queens. All things considered, their outings could hardly have gone better. Santana made it through five scoreless innings, working out of a bases loaded jam in the fifth while striking out five overall. Hanson took a shutout of his own into into the sixth, though that may have been one inning too long; he allowed the first three men to reach before being lifted for Kris Medlen, who retired the next three Mets with no further damage.

Simply by getting through their outings by putting up solid performances with no reports of shoulder pain, these really should be taken as positive outings. In particular, Mets fans were ecstatic about the return of their ace, and with how little they’ve had to cheer for over the last few years, it’s hard to blame them. But in the same breath, any exhortations that Santana or Hanson “is back” really needs to be tempered with some reality, because neither was able to get near their pre-injury velocity levels. (I especially can’t wait to see the back page of the New York Post when it comes out. Can you award a Cy Young on April 6?)

According to our own Jeff Zimmerman, Hanson was down 2.3 MPH from last year, while Santana was 1.9 MPH under his 2010 performance. Those are significant variances, and the readings can’t simply be chalked up to a miscalculated radar gun, because every other pitcher who appeared in that game showed velocity at or near their usual levels. Neither pitcher was able to dial it up past 90-91 regularly, with Santana down into the mid-80s by the end of his stint.

Now, whether that’s a step on the comeback trail or the new normal remains to be seen. No one expects a starting pitcher to be in mid-season form on Opening Day, particularly two pitchers coming off serious arm issues, and so as they continue to rebuild arm strength, it’s hopeful that at least some of the velocity can return with it. For now, keep expectations in check, because each will be handled very gingerly for at least the next few weeks.

Ladies and gentlemen, baseball is here! Well, at least it is for 17 out of 30 teams. The remaining 13 teams will finally be getting into the action today. Before we get started with the previews for the day, a few pertinent things to note:

– Scott Baker has apparently suffered another setback in his rehabbing with the Twins’ Single-A affiliate this afternoon. He was scheduled to throw 75 pitches, but lasted a mere 11 before being pulled. Baker’s current Yahoo! ownership sits at 42% (he is even owned in the FG vs THT Expert League), but I would expect that to drop. Baker has only once ever pitched 200 innings in a single season, and it appears as though 2012 will be another sub-200 frame season from him.

– Of all the aces throwing today, it is possible that Justin Masterson had the best day of them all. A solo shot by Jose Bautista was one of only two hits he gave up to go along with his sole walk and 10 strikeouts. Unfortunately for Masterson and for his fantasy owners, he was not rewarded with the win, despite leaving the game after eight innings and a three-run lead. Closer Chris Perez came on the top of the ninth and rapidly surrendered a pair of walks, a trio of hits and ultimately that one blown save, all in a mere two-thirds of an inning.

Throughout the Blue Jays/Indians game there was a running phenomenon where pitchers on both sides seemed to be throwing noticeably slower than their norms. Masterson was sitting around 90 mph, and his opposition, Ricky Romero, was even lower at 89. Perez was the most notable, topping at 91 in his short time on the mound. Immediately after the game there were several questions on my twitter timeline asking about Perez’s potentially lingering injury.

FanGraphs’ very own Jeff Zimmerman tackled the velocity subject and determined that it was one of two scenarios: every single pitcher (14 total) was experiencing a decrease in velocity, or the Cleveland radar gun was between 2 and 2.5 mph out of calibration on the slow side. In other words, Perez seems to be fine from a velocity standpoint, he was just hit hard today because well, he’s Chris Perez. I would look to snap up Vinnie Pestano if he’s available. Despite Perez’s seemingly fine velocity, I can’t imagine he hangs on to the closer job for much longer.

A Pitcher For Today: Chad Billinglsey (LAD) at SD
Bils has struck out at least 150 batters in three straight years and today he matches up against the Padres in San Diego. He’s currently owned in just half of all Yahoo! leagues. Bilingsley is a better than decent pitcher and he’s playing at Petco. What’s not to like?

A Pitcher For Tomorrow: Francisco Liriano (MIN) at BAL
The major issue that has plagued Liriano the past few years (other than health) has been attempting to limit the free passes. Luckily he is facing the Orioles, the team that drew the 24th fewest walks in baseball last year. I expect Liriano to have a solid day. He’s only owned in 72% and as a stream option early in the year, he is worth the risk.

FanGraphs: The Game
Shortstop
A thin position with a hitter who can maybe pop 20 homers this year? And is right-handed and enjoying a game in Texas? If you’re picking at shortstop, you need to be paying Alexei Ramirez today. He’s good for about 15-15 each year. He plays in a hitters park, and is now on the road in an even better hitters’ park.

Outfield
As counter-intuitive as it is to be buying hitters from Oakland, tomorrow is day to bid on their outfielders. Jason Vargas isn’t exactly Cy Young material and between guys like Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes and Josh Reddick, there is speed, power and speed, and power right there. You can probably pluck these guys pretty cheaply too.

We’ve finally made it through the offseason.

We survived the 3 am games in Japan, the Marlins’ home run statue didn’t come to life and vengefully destroy the new stadium last night, and the reward for our patience is back-to-back days of real, meaningful baseball from morning to evening.

While most owners probably aren’t looking to revamp their rosters just yet, injuries and spring swoons may have some looking for an early season ringer. So, with the pageantry of Opening Day as a backdrop, here’s the season’s first Waiver Wire.

Jose Tabata (ESPN: 9 percent owned, Yahoo!: 47 percent owned)

Tabata fits in a category of player I’ve mentioned before, namely the guys who feel like they’ve been around forever, even though they aren’t that old. Tabata is just 23, he has fewer than 200 major league games to his credit, but because of personal issues, his name has been around since he was in the low minors. He lacks the power to be a 20/20 threat, but he easily has the speed, as he swiped 16 bases last year despite playing in just 90 games.

Health is key for Tabata this season. He’s part of the Pirates long-term plans, so playing time won’t be a concern as long as he’s physically able to take the field. He missed 50 games with a right hand contusion last summer, and then broke his left hand in September, which ended his season. Neither injury should linger into this season, so he’s a clean slate.

He’s certainly not going to replace someone like Michael Bourn, but the choice between Tabata and, say, Austin Jackson (53 percent owned on ESPN and 59 percent owned on Yahoo!) is pretty close. Jackson is almost certainly going to be driven in more often, but Tabata is going to provide a better average.

Lorenzo Cain (ESPN: 44 percent owned, Yahoo!: 45 percent owned)

Spring training produces two major batches of sleepers. The first group is the guys who start out red-hot, produce a ton of hype, and then have their draft stock rise to the point that they’re really no longer a bargain: Delmon Young is probably this year’s best example. The second group is the guys who just have a strong spring from tip to tail or who really start hitting at the end of camp. There tends to be less time for the hype machine to inflate their value, which means they can be had for a value price. Cain belongs to the second group.

His spring numbers were fantastic: .371/.450/.743 with 5 HR and 11 2B, but since he didn’t go on a huge HR binge or do anything except play consistently well, he didn’t get the overwhelming push of coverage, which means he went undrafted in about 50 percent of leagues across both ESPN and Yahoo. Like Tabata, Cain is part of the Royals future and he shouldn’t’ have trouble getting playing time as the team’s best center fielder. ZiPS has him set for a .259/.314/.370 season with 17 SB, which strikes me as overly conservative. I don’t quite buy Cain as a guy who will carry that .700+ slugging percentage into the season, but he’s a career .295 hitter in the minors, so I think he’ll provide a better average than a .260 to go with the steals he’ll provide. He is an inexperienced player, so there may be some growing pains, but he should be a great option in leagues with 4-5 OF slots or as a potential bench option in shallower leagues.

Last year, Eno Sarris gathered a group of fantasy experts from around the internets and formed the FanGraphs Experts league – an ottoneu league using traditional 5×5 roto scoring – pitting some of the best fantasy minds around (and me) against each other in a battle royale.

This year, we resume the battle.

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In the real world, “in the hole” means I’m standing at the top step of the dugout, helmet on, bat in hand, waiting to get into the on-deck circle. In the fantasy world, it means I’ve screwed the pooch. Let’s face it. There’s nothing worse than starting the fantasy season with a bunch of your guys on the DL. Not only do you have to replace players you drafted and hoped would bring you much joy throughout the season, but you also have to fight off an entire league of eager beavers for said replacements.

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When it was announced earlier this week that Boston closer Andrew Bailey would miss several months thanks to thumb surgery, most assumed that fellow newcomer Mark Melancon would slide into the role, given that he was relatively effective in saving 20 games for a lousy Houston squad in 2011. If not Melancon, perhaps Daniel Bard, presumed to be Jonathan Papelbon’s heir apparent before attempting to move into the rotation, would return to the bullpen to help fill the need. After all, most clubs can get by without their fifth starter to start the season, and Boston also took longtime starter Vicente Padilla north with them as bullpen depth.

But it wouldn’t be Bobby Valentine if he did things the easy way, would it? Despite the availability of these two viable options, Valentine threw everyone a curveball and announced that he’d be starting the season with 30-year-old Alfredo Aceves as his closer. Aceves was in contention for a rotation spot as well and was reportedly unhappy when he learned he’d lost out to Bard & Felix Doubront and would be returning to the bullpen. Three days later, with all of four career saves under his belt (three of which saw him pitch at least 3.2 innings) he’s now apparently going to be the first choice in the ninth inning.

If the move seems odd, it’s not just because Valentine had other potential choices; it’s because Aceves is coming off a season in which he was quite valuable to the Red Sox as a multiple-inning reliever, putting up a 2.61 ERA (though only a 4.03 FIP) in 114 innings across 55 appearances, including four starts. Considering how uncertain the back end of the Sox rotation might be with the untested Bard & Doubront pulling up the rear, having Aceves available to act as safety net capable of pitching multiple innings at a time would have seemed to make sense.

So can Aceves be an effective closer? There’s no reason to think he can’t be. Closers are made, not born, and Aceves has nice 143/50 K/BB and 3.87 FIP across 192.2 career innings out of the bullpen; while he’s not a huge strikeout pitcher, he does a good job of keeping the ball in the yard and limiting free passes. Besides, he’s 24-3 lifetime, which is only the best winning percentage of all time, so he has to be good, right?

(It’s here where I’m hoping that I don’t need to point out the complete lack of seriousness in the preceding sentence. But hey, I’m new here.)

If Aceves were to become a traditional closer, he’d probably be solid enough in the role, even though that is arguably not the best use of resources for Boston since he’d be throwing far fewer innings being pigeonholed into the ninth inning than he would be otherwise. Simply being the designated closer for the Boston Red Sox brings value, so he’s an obvious and immediate add in all fantasy formats.

Of course, “Valentine” and “traditional” are two words that are rarely used in the same sentence, so there’s a bit more to this situation. Valentine has already noted that he’d be willing to use Aceves for multiple-inning saves and that Melancon will get his share of opportunities when Aceves is unavailable, raising some concern of a bullpen-by-committee. Bailey will be back at some point in the second half of the season, and there’s always the chance that issues arise in the rotation, whether that’s Josh Beckett’s own thumb issues, Clay Buchholz‘ return from back problems, or Bard & Doubront attempting to be full-time starters for the first time.

It’s not hard to see the Sox needing another starter before Daisuke Matsuzaka is ready to return later this year, and if it’s Bard who falls out, that would not only open up a spot in the rotation but could also add another competitor in relief. Aceves may be an adequate substitute for Bailey, but the circumstances, competition, and his own good-but-not-great performance make it exceedingly unlikely that he’s actually going to hang onto the job all season long. That makes him a good short-term buy, though someone who is potentially worth trading at his peak if he is able to rack up some early saves.

Still, Aceves does have something else going for him, at least in certain leagues – his eligibility as a starter. Few things in fantasy baseball give me more joy than being able to find a starter-eligible reliever who I can stash in a SP spot every day, essentially gaining a free reliever by avoiding the waste that comes with at least one rotation spot every day. (Brett Myers is another good example of that this year; Jose Contreras was a great use of that role last year.) He appears to be eligible as a starter in Yahoo! leagues, though not in ESPN or CBS. Keep that in mind when deciding how much of your FAAB budget or waiver claim position to throw at him.

In past years, I have posted 20 bold predictions for the upcoming season. Just because our little RotoGraphs contest among authors only required 10 doesn’t mean I was going to stop there! So here are another 10 bold predictions to ridicule me for, or cause your eyes to open in wonder as to how I could be such a brilliant prognosticator. And before you read on, take another gander at my first set of boldies to refresh your memory.

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Did you know baseball started yesterday? Because I’m embarrassed to say I didn’t until a certain RotoGraphs editor sent me a profanity laced email for not including player recommendations in yesterday’s Roto Riteup. Today’s edition does have recommendations, though, so that’s pretty awesome.

–  Josh Johnson may have had shoulder problems last year, but he was easily in the 90s during last night’s start against the St. Louis Cardinals. He struggled a bit with his location, though, and the Cardinals took advantage. Johnson is a top-5 pitcher when healthy, and at the price he went for this year, owners could end up with big time value.

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Before the season started, I had a little heart-to-heart with myself about roster management. When I was writing a book last year, my editor gave me a piece of advice about certain segments of the manuscript that one might love, but just doesn’t work for one reason or another: “Sometimes, you just have to kill your babies,” she said.

I went into this season with full intent on applying that principle to my fantasy baseball roster. For too many years I’ve burned up a whole roster slot on a guy that I’m hoping will come back by the All Star Break or for the proverbial stretch run. I tend to fall in love with players and perhaps over-think what kind of value that player will give me at some undisclosed time in the future without considering what kind of value that extra roster spot will provide.

But no more.

Hi, my name is Michael, and I cut Andrew Bailey.

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