Whenever we go out, the people always shout: “Is it time to pick up Jon Jay for my lineup quick?” And I say: “Probably not if he’s available in your league,” which doesn’t quite make for a good song. But it might make for a good RotoGraphs post.

Yahoo tells us that Jay is available in 91% of leagues, which means that he’s off the board in NL-only leagues and probably not available in eighteen- or twenty-team leagues. And if your 14-team league has five outfielders, should Jay be one of them? For example, my Blog Wars team has Cody Ross and Michael Brantley sharing my final outfield slot. Jon Jay is gone even in that league.

Which probably means he’s not a great pickup if he’s available in your league. He just looks more attractive until you poke around under the hood.

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The American League outfield has a wide mix of both talent and age. On one hand there is Mike Trout, and then on the other there is Vernon Wells. And that diverse situation is just on one team in the AL.

This is the first week of AL OF Tiered Rankings, and they’ll be coming out on the first Monday of every month. On the later Mondays of each month we’ll be looking at individual AL outfielders and examining them much more closely.

Tier One
Jose Bautista
Jacoby Ellsbury

Putting Joey Bats first here was a pretty easy call. His transformation has been well documented, but it never ceases to amaze me that a man can reinvent himself on a random September day and then become one of the best hitters in baseball for the foreseeable future. Pairing Bautista with Ellsbury was something that I really wrestled with. I don’t expect 30 home runs again, but his combination of power and steals (I’m thinking 20 HR and 55 SB) and his .300 career average tilted me in favor of putting him here. Read the rest of this entry »

Reliable middle infielders have always been my white whale. I overvalue them on draft/action day and somehow always end up getting burned. Whether it’s Rickie Weeks‘ wrist or Dustin Pedroia‘s foot or Chase Utley’s knees, I always seem to wind up scrounging for infield help. This year I decided to cast a wide net in our staff league, loading up on various $1 options in addition to keepers Utley and Yunel Escobar.

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Robin Ventura and Joe Maddon made confusing closer situations a bit more clear this weekend, as both have seemingly ‘named’ temporary closers. Hector Santiago, owner of a nifty screwball, and Fernando Rodney, he of the 7.88 BB/9 rate last year, will apparently be getting the save attempts for their respective teams going forward.

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The fantasy baseball season has finally begun. Only a few days of games have been played, but there are already some owners who are scouring the waiver wires, looking to dump their hitless players and pitchers who gave up five earned runs in their one start. This early in the season, it’s usually smart to stand pat and put faith in the players you drafted. Just ask any Michael Morse owner from last season, patience pays off. But if you’re looking to make an early move, or you have a player that recently hit the DL, here are some players whose performances might be worth an early pickup.

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In the first month of the season, fantasy sites and blogs will be littered with your standard buy low and sell high columns. The authors will highlight hitters suffering/benefiting from a low/high BABIP or pitchers whose xFIP (or other expected ERA metric of choice) is dramatically different from their ERAs. I won’t get into why I think these articles are rather useless, but I do want to discuss how to go about evaluating early season pitcher performances. There is a two-step process I use and since I am feeling generous, I would like to share it with you.

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Today’s Roto Riteup is what it is: amazing.

‌• Hector Santiago received the first save opportunity for the Chicago White Sox, and manager Robin Ventura has stated he’ll start the year as the team’s primary closer. Santiago, 24, posted good strikeout numbers in the low minors, but struggled a tad in Double-A last season. The left-hander does possess a low-to-mid-90’s fastball and the ever intriguing screwball, so he won’t be blowing games due to a lack of “stuff.” Saves are always a hot commodity, so there’s a good chance he’s already been nabbed in your league. If so, don’t be afraid to grab Addison Reed in the hopes that Santiago fails.

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Today’s piece is the debut of start/sit: two start starters for this season. Obviously, in weekly leagues — like the THT/FG league that’s currently going on — lineups must be set prior to Monday’s tilts, so we’ll take this opportunity to have a gander at the pitchers currently slated to start two games for streaming starters if that’s a strategy you like to pursue.

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Sometimes us stats guys get accused of relying solely on esoteric metrics and watching nary a baseball game. Obviously, I cannot speak for everyone, but I would bet this is far from the truth. Though I am clearly not a professional scout, there are still easy things I can see on TV from a pitcher that can help us project his performance going forward. One of these is the pitcher’s velocity. We have learned that an increase of about 0.5 miles per hour in a pitcher’s fastball results in a similar gain of 0.5 in strikeout rate. Yesterday, I watched a lot of Jake Arrieta’s start, and as I type this, I am watching Ubaldo Jimenez pitch.

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Jack Moore covered this for the main site, but I wanted to touch on it from a fantasy perspective. Chris Perez blew a three-run lead in the ninth inning last night, to no surprise of anyone who has read RotoGraphs all winter. Dan Wade looked at Perez and Pestano and I elaborated on why I felt that Pestano should be drafted before spring training began.

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