AL Outfield Tiered Rankings
The American League outfield has a wide mix of both talent and age. On one hand there is Mike Trout, and then on the other there is Vernon Wells. And that diverse situation is just on one team in the AL.
This is the first week of AL OF Tiered Rankings, and they’ll be coming out on the first Monday of every month. On the later Mondays of each month we’ll be looking at individual AL outfielders and examining them much more closely.
Tier One
Jose Bautista
Jacoby Ellsbury
Putting Joey Bats first here was a pretty easy call. His transformation has been well documented, but it never ceases to amaze me that a man can reinvent himself on a random September day and then become one of the best hitters in baseball for the foreseeable future. Pairing Bautista with Ellsbury was something that I really wrestled with. I don’t expect 30 home runs again, but his combination of power and steals (I’m thinking 20 HR and 55 SB) and his .300 career average tilted me in favor of putting him here.
Tier Two
Curtis Granderson
Josh Hamilton
Nelson Cruz
These three players are all a step below elite for one reason or another. Granderson’s long documented trouble against lefties was seemingly solved last year, but that was in a scant 200 plate appearances. Like Ellsbury, I don’t think Granderson’s home run rate is for real, and I’d expect closer to see 30, not 40 home runs this year. Granderson’s runs are elite, but his low average is what places him in the second tier. Hamilton and Cruz have plenty of power, but neither produce notable amounts in the stolen base department. Their inability to stay healthy also hampers their ranking here. For their combined careers, only Hamilton has ever had more than 550 PA in a single season, and he has just one season at 571 PA.
Tier Three
Ben Zobrist
Shin-Soo Choo
Desmond Jennings
B.J. Upton
Alex Gordon
Zobrist’s eligibility in the OF and at second base really propel his ranking here. The fact that he is almost a lock to go 20-20 with 90+ runs scored doesn’t hurt either. Speaking of 20-20 potential, I have Choo ranked higher than most others. Choo’s career line of .290/.383/.471 is elite in this run environment. I don’t think that he will have quite that much power this year, but his average and on-base percentage still place him in the upper echelons of the AL OF. Jennings and Upton should both hit 15-20 HR and have 40-50 SB. Upton is due to begin rehabbing, and looks to join the Rays around April 20th. I think Gordon comes back down to earth a bit, but is still a very useful player.
Tier Four
Ichiro Suzuki
Brett Gardner
Adam Jones
Howie Kendrick
Nick Markakis
Carl Crawford
Ichiro barely edges out Gardner here due to the difference in AVG. Although he isn’t leading off, Suzuki should still be a sound investment to hit .300. Jones, Kendrick and Markakis are all above average yet pedestrian options for your outfield. Crawford being out until possibly the first of May hurts his value here as well. Crawford should bounce back with nice rate stats, but his counting stats will be down due to missed time.
Tier Five
Nick Swisher
Denard Span
Peter Bourjos
Colby Rasmus
Yeonis Cespedes
Josh Willingham
Torii Hunter
Swish seems to be the quintessential “better in real life than in fantasy” player. His power, average, RBI’s and runs are all very good, but not great. He’s never had a great season, but he’s had 5 seasons where has been worth at least 3 WAR. He’s a solid and dependable player, accumulating 600 or more PA in five of the past six years. Cespedes was the hardest player for me to rank, as he could work his way up to the first tier, or plummet to the last. It’s just so hard to know. ZiPS predicts 21 HR and 9 SB. I think he surpasses those numbers, but where his average falls is the key. He won’t stay up in the majors if his average plummets.
Tier Six
Coco Crisp
Matt Joyce
Seth Smith
Mike Trout
Jeff Francoeur
Austin Jackson
Crisp’s stolen bases are the only thing of note about his game at this point in his career, but finding players that can nab 40 bags for you late in the draft is always nice to have. Mike Trout is once again tearing up the minors, so hopefully the Angels do the right thing and call him up before June. With no timetable for his arrival, I can’t justify putting Trout any higher.
Tier Seven
Ben Revere
Josh Reddick
Alex Rios
Brennan Boesch
Rajai Davis
Alejandro De Aza
Vernon Wells
If you missed on out on getting Crisp, there is an excellent chance that Davis isn’t owned in your league (4% Yahoo! ownership rate). Though he won’t give you much in the power department, despite getting less than 350 PA, Davis still stole 34 bases last year.
Tier Eight
Lorenzo Cain
Ryan Raburn
Eric Thames
Delmon Young
Bobby Abreu
Here we enter the realm of the replacement level players. If you are stuck with any of these players, I’d look to upgrade. Thames offers the most power and Cain should have the highest average. It’s hard for me to recommend any of these guys though…other than the obvious recommendation to trade or drop them.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Lorenzo Cain so good he’s listed twice.
Cognitive dissonance.
Fixed.
I’m embarrassed at that one. I’m also embarrassed at the NotGraphs post about my hitting “talent.” You should laugh at that while you’re at it.
Rasmus over Joyce I will have to respectfully disagree. I own Rasmus in both leagues and hope your right, although you give Joyce no love.
I’m hoping that the Jays can replicate (to some degree) their success with Rasmus’ swing change similar to what they did with Bautista. Obviously I’m not predicting 40 HR with a .400 OBP, but I do think Rasmus will improve this year. I’m a believer. Or a kool-aid drinker. However you’d like to phrase it.
There are a litany of names on this list that I’d slot over Colby Rasmus including Matt Joyce, Brennan Boesch, Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, Josh Reddick, Yoenis Cespedes, Jeff Francouer & Delmon Young. I think the hope is that Rasmus can still recoup some value as a real life CF, but I don’t think he’s the most astute upside play right now in mixed leagues with his prolonged funk & also batting in the 9th spot in the order.
David Murphy??
I just stated below that this was more or less my pre-draft rankings with a few justifications written in. Assuming Murphy really will get 400 PA (thanks in part to resting the starters and the injury prone Hamilton and Cruz) I should have had him on here. He’ll be on in May, possibly with a spotlight in the coming Mondays before that.
Yes, you should also note that he is officially their third outfielder now…500 PA isn’t out of the question, if not likely
Jackson and Boesch are rated too low. Each will likely score over 100R’s and with typical production of other stats will easily vault up one or two tiers, at a minimum.
Also, as we saw this weekend, anyone on the Twins needs to be downgraded. That lineup is horrible and is going to have all kinds of problems. Span and Willingham aren’t going to do very much.
As stated above, this is just the first set of rankings that I’ll be doing throughout the season. This was basically my pre-draft rankings for my AL only league. I’m assuming 5×5 for the sake of it being the most common league format (even though personally I’m only in two 5×5 leagues).
As the season progresses, these rankings will change due to injury, production, or lack thereof.
When a players rank does change, I’ll try to explain why I think they deserve to be upgraded or downgraded.
Gotcha.
I think Luke Scott (if he’s not injured) vaults up your next ranking also. He’s got the ability to put up some stats in that lineup, even if he’s just playing against RH’s.
If anything, Willingham is underrated. He was one swing away from 30 hr 100 rbi in an even worse lineup and ballpark last year. You can’t find that kind of power from anyone else at his ADP or auction price.
Gardner still in that tier despite sitting vs lefties?? Interesting.
He’s gotten over 550 PA the past years. Even sitting vs lefties so Jones can mash em, Gardner is incredibly useful.
Where’s Corey Hart?
Ignore the question (realized we’re talking AL-only). Why no “delete” option with the posts?
lol. i’d normally think Ryan Braun before hart if I was a brewers fan who thought this was all-mlb…
So if the guys in Tier 8 are “droppable” (of which I am starting 2), what does that say for the two guys I am starting in my OF that are not ranked (Reimold and Viciedo)?
It could be any of the following:
-You play in the deepest league known to man. 20 teams, 40 roster spots.
-You spent too much on INF/Pitching, leaving no money for OF.
-You drafted your OF too late in a snake draft.
-You went “Stars and Scrubs” with obvious scrubs.
-You just drafted poorly. It happens. I’ve been there, done that.
Delmon Young is considered ‘droppable’ to you in anything other than the shallowest of formats? I can’t get on board with that considering the lineup in which he hits for one thing.
If Young continues to “hit” fifth, then I’ll revise. Until then, he’s a 15-18 homer guy in that park with an okay average. That is droppable to me in a lot of leagues and formats. RBI’s are hard to come by when he makes an out 68% of the time.
I’m in an 18 team, 45 roster spot keeper league…and my fifth outfielder is willingham…(beltran, holliday, markakis and werth) pretty awesome
Michael Saunders obviously doesn’t deserve to be on this list (yet).
What the upside with him? With daily playing time and plus .400slg, could he be a tier 7 guy?
(I’m in a very, very deep league)
Saunders won’t offer much power, maybe 10, with 12-15 as his very ceiling. He might nab 15 bags, so if he goes 10-15, that’s not awful but really that useful. I don’t think his average will ever be much above .240. Unless there is a drastic change in his game, I just don’t see Saunders being fantasy relevant. I do like his minor league walk rates though. If you play in an OBP league, he could be attractive as a lottery ticket that maybe pans out and finds some power and AVG.
Does Austin Jackson merit a promotion since his pitch recognition and strike zone control seem to be improving? He is swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone 2010-2012 (early count so far obviously but continuing trend from last year), and making contact at a much higher rate as compared to 2010.
If he continues that trend, he could push his OBP north of .350. If he gets on base at that clip, he is going to score a ton of runs for the Tigers.
If he fully harnesses his speed he will be lethal. Until he does that, maintains his double digit BB% and keeps his K% under 25%, sure, he can go up. That’s an awful lot to ask of a player. I don’t really see a .350+ OBP for any significant amount of time out of Jackson anytime soon however.
According to StateCorner’s oMs%, Jackson was worse at swinging and missing outside of the zone last year than in 2010. Where are you seeing an improvement in his strike zone discipline (other than his 16 PA this year)?
Jose Bautista should not only be number 1. I nominate him as “the most interesting man” in baseball.
Hmm. To find the most interesting man in baseball, I think you’d have to go over to NotGraphs.
I have Michael Brantly right along side Denard Span, and they were 2 bucks apart in my AL only draft. In fact, I drafted them both. Why so down on Brantly? I see him as a 24 year old Denard Span, 10 hr, 20 sb, .290 avg guy. Not a bad thing?
Just look at the first 1000 PA’s for each. Huge difference. I know Span has struggled with post-concussion syndromes, but he claims he’s healthy, he had a very good spring (warning, Spring Training stats) and Span has shown that he can produce at the MLB level. Brantley just hasn’t shown me that yet.
It’s possible that Brantley and Span end up close in value this year, but I just don’t have a reason to think that just yet.
You really think Trout will be called up before June? How many weeks in your opinion? Thanks.
I don’t have any inside info, but given his history of abusing minor league pitching, I think he’ll force the Angels hand here.
Nelson Cruz two tiers above Adam Jones is very strange…
I see Jones as a 25-10 with a .280 average. Certainly useful, but I’ll take Cruz’s 30 homers and 15 steals with the same, or better, average. The surrounding talent in their respective lineups really hurts Jones as well.
In my 12-team mixed 7×6 roto league (5×5 categories, plus OPB, SLG, and HLD) I drafted Brett Gardner, thinking he’d be my everyday LF and get 500+ PA, giving a nice boost to my R, SB, and OBP.
I don’t have any everyday outfielder on my bench (I drafted MikeTrout later, as a flyer).
Will Gardner really be used as the RHP part of a R/L platoon this season? Is Girardi really that stupid? Gardner’s defense and OBP skills are huge upgrades over Andruw JOnes.
If Gardner ends with something closer to 300-350 PA, then he’ll likely have something like 25 SB rather than 45 SB, 45 runs rather than 90, and his OBP value will be severely limited because it’s weighted by PA.
If this really is going to be a platoon, I don’t think it make sense for me to keep him on my roster. I’ll need to get a CF or LF eligible outfielder with great speed (and hopefully useful ratio stats) to replace him.
This could really mess up my season. Can anybody help with a suggestion?
Gardner has accumulated over 570 PA the past 2 years. Worst case scenario is that he plays every day against righties, and only half the time against lefties. That’s still incredibly useful.
Josh Hamilton had 704 PA in 2008.