FanGraphs vs. The Hardball Times. And you can take part.

The RotoGraphs squad is taking on a group from The Hardball Times in a fantasy showdown. Our own Howard Bender, Chris Benson, Mike Podhorzer, Dan Wade, Brandon Warne, and David Wiers took part in an auction last night and they’ll be battling six foes from The Hardball Times for fantasy glory… and a $600 prize that will go to the charity of the winner’s choice. Most likely, the cash will end up going to the Leukemia Society, because, most likely, we’re going to win.

We’ll be writing about this from time to time to keep you up to date and discuss issues that come up, but there’s a twist — you can get involved if you like.

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On Monday with the help of Matt Swartz, I determined that spring training statistics are not completely meaningless after all. Strikeout percentage (K%) and walk percentage (BB%) should indeed be taken into consideration when projecting the upcoming season.

With that in mind, it may be possible to get a foreshadowing of who the breakout and bust pitchers are for the year. Today I decided to look at the 10 pitchers whose spring K% is the most different from their Steamer projection, as in, their spring K% is much higher than the projection. I used Steamer because it has become my favorite pitching projection system and performed the best in the latest round of tests between systems.

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Today’s Roto Riteup will not include suggestions for who to pick today in The Game, since the day’s game will have already started by the time this goes live. When games don’t start at ungodly hours, you should expect to see suggestions for the current day’s games.

Since fantasy owners watch games with a certain slant, here are some notes on things you may want to look for during the first few games of the year.

–  One thing to take note of over the first week or two of the season is Jemile Weeks’ approach at the dish. The speedy second baseman walked a good deal in the minors, but he tended to opt to put the ball in play during his stint with the A’s last season. Last season the switch-hitter averaged 3.85 pitches per plate appearance and swung 42.7% of the time, so use those numbers as a sort of benchmark going forward. If he decides to walk in the majors, his OBP could make him supremely valuable.

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I almost wish I played in a league where Box Jump and Leg Press were scoring categories, because at least then I would know where to draft Yoenis Cespedes. There’s surely more to the Cuban import than just what he showed in his YouTube video that went viral earlier this offseason, but exactly whether he’ll be able to translate his physical prowess into practical production is still very much an open debate. Read the rest of this entry »

After a particularly boring stretch, we actually have some shortstop news to report. Let’s start with what’s happening out in Arizona.

After coming off a very good 2010 season which saw him hit 15 home runs and steal 10 bases, Stephen Drew suffered a broken ankle in July, ending his 2011 campaign early. The 29-year-old had been hopeful for opening day but it’s now being reported that he’ll miss that target date, and no timetable has been set on his return. That leaves Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald in the backup roles.

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I didn’t expect to do another post on recent developments at third base until after the season began, but there were several relevant (some more than others) circumstances that could impact any of you doing emergency, 12th-hour drafts the day before the season begins.

I’ve written far too much about Ryan Roberts over the past six months, and part of that is probably because I have a hard time figuring out if I like him in fantasy baseball, and in what kinds of formats he might be useful, if at all. Well, it turns out that Kirk Gibson might be having the same thoughts kicking around in his skull relative to real baseball as he’s given Geoff Blum quite a bit of praise recently and failed to commit to Roberts as his every day third basemen when questioned. I have to believe that Roberts will see the majority of the time at third and maybe this is the way a former “gritty” player rewards a player with “veteran savvy” who is having a decent spring. But if you own Roberts, take notice.

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For those that love to follow industry leagues, the Tout Wars drafts took place this past weekend in New York City.  In addition to their usual rundown, this year introduced a brand new Mixed League and as I was looking over some of the rosters, Josh Donaldson’s name stuck out to me.  He went for $4 to Rotowire’s Derek Van Riper who went with a “stars and scrubs” approach, but considering some of the other names that went for a buck, along with RotoGraphs’ reader Jeff’s question in the Catcher Tiers piece, it seems that Donaldson is on quite a few people’s fantasy radar these days.  Now the question remains, is he worth a look?

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Jason Heyward – RF/CF

Heyward has been seen in center field on a few occasions this year, and it is clear that the Braves would rather have Heyward as the backup centerfielder than carry a weak hitting bench bat. He plays top notch defense in right field, so he can likely handle the position in a pinch without any issues. In a league that accounts for outfield positions rather than outfield in general, Heyward could be very beneficial if he eventually does earn enough games to qualify in center. This is not a given, but it something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

Eric Hosmer – 1B/OF

Ned Yost put Hosmer in right field for a game just a few days ago, in what could be Yost’s game plan when the Royals play in National League parks. One of the team’s best hitters, Billy Butler, will be forced to sit on the bench in NL parks otherwise, so Hosmer getting some work in the outfield makes a decent amount of sense as he is certainly athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot. It will depend on the eligibility roles in your league, but Hosmer could end up with cheap OF eligibility which could really be beneficial as first base is consistently extremely deep. This, like Heyward’s situation, is not a given but is worth following to see if he does end up getting OF eligibility.

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Today’s Roto Riteup isn’t nearly as exciting as FanGraphs: The Game, which you should totally acquaint yourself with.

–  Baseball starts tomorrow morning! Can you believe it? Don’t forget to set your lineups in anticipation of the Seattle Mariners’ matchup against the Oakland A’s in Japan.

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Almost all fantasy leagues have a few spots to place players that are on the DL. Fantasy owners should look at filling these available roster spots with players currently on the DL. I will look at a few players that can be used in these slots.

Victor Martinez – C, DH (1.4% owned in ESPN, 13% in Yahoo) – Victor will not be playing in 2012, so if an owner is in a 1-year league, ignore him. In a keeper league, he has some definate value. Good hitting qualified catchers are hard to find. While an owner may not be able to stash him for a season, why not try hold onto him until the end of the season. If there is a point when he must be dropped to the waiver wire, try to trade him off. Attempt to turn the release into a bidding war. State that owner A, the owner with the best waiver wire ranking and an open DL slot, will get him up unless another owner offers up a trade.

Salvador Perez – C (6.4% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) – Sal is expected to miss 12 to 14 weeks. His return should be in late July at the earliest. All catchers wear down and are generally bad offensively. Sal will be a decent C option when he returns in all but the shallowest of leagues.

Brett Anderson – P (0.4% ESPN, 4% Yahoo) – Brett has been a decent fantasy option when healthy. The problem is that he is rarely healthy. He will not be the same pitcher that he was when he came up in 2009. Since 2009, he has lost 1.5 MPH to his fastball and his strikeout and gone down (7.7 K/9 in 2009 to 6.6 K/9 in 2011). This last injury will degrade his talent even more. Brett looks to return in August when many pitchers may be getting shutdown. He could step in for some innings late in the season.

Rubby de la Rosa – P (0% ESPN, 1% Yahoo) – I like Rubby potential fantasy value more than Brett Anderson. He threw hard (96 MPH) and averaged 8.9 K/9 in 13 games last season. The main problem holding him down in 2011 was his 4.6 BB/9. He could be a great pitcher if he could get the walks under control. He looks to be ready to return from TJS late in the season.