We get weird. Beers, baseball, sandwiches, fantasy baseball, keepers, music, hair, mustaches — this is the chat where it’s all in play. I’ll be here at noon-thirty to moderate the madness.

Eric Hosmer is a trendy fantasy pick this spring, and for good reason. The Royals first baseman batted .293/.334/.465 during his age-21 season, providing decent power (19 homers) and uncommon speed (11 steals) for a guy at the low end of the defensive spectrum. Hosmer’s youth, contact ability, athleticism and promise of more pop from his 6-foot-4, 230 frame have caused him to shoot up the draft board, placing eighth among first basemen and just outside the top 50 overall in MockDraftCentral’s latest ADP Report.

Hosmer could bust out in 2012 — the fans are betting on it, projecting a .299/.359/.501 line, 25 homers and double-digit steals. But for Hosmer to progress from good young hitter to true fantasy stud, he’ll need to hone his strike-zone discipline. Specifically, he needs a cure for a serious case of hack-itis against the heat and sliders/cutters.

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This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our fifth (and final) over/under game, let’s take a look at Chris Young the outfielder.

The over/under for today’s game is 21. As in, will Chris Young hit more than 21 home runs in 2012?

If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult Jeff Zimmerman’s excellent piece about playing through injuries and the effect that has on projections. And you could learn more about Young’s batted ball distance after he injured his thumb half-way through last year.

But since you don’t have Zimmerman’s research at your fingertips — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to predict the number of home runs that Chris Young the outfielder will hit in the coming season. Use any methods at your disposal.

Have at it!

We can forgive Bryan LaHair if he’s a little confused as to what his status is as the Cubs prepare for Spring Training.

The expectation was that the Cubs would end up with one of the big three first baseman in free agency, but Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Carlos Pena all found their way to the American League rather than to Wrigley Field, so that’s good news for LaHair. The Cubs then turned around and traded for Anthony Rizzo, a younger version of LaHair who clearly has the First Baseman of the Future look about him, so that’s bad. The Cubs gave LaHair some reps in the outfield last year, giving him a wider range of places to play instead of just first base, so that’s good. Unfortunately, the Cubs haven’t traded Alfonso Soriano yet and signed David DeJesus to fill Kosuke Fukudome’s old spot, so that’s bad. Read the rest of this entry »

For years, Valentine’s Day meant one thing to the rest of the world (hearts and love and such things) and another to me: the final few days to prepare for my annual ottoneu auction. Then I met my wife, and suddenly those “such things” took precedence…but this year, she is in China for a couple weeks and so I returned to my roots, and spent the last few days preparing for ottoneu.

My first auction of the year commences on Sunday, as we kick off season one of the Better FanGraphs Staff League (not to be confused with the Other FanGraphs Staff League). With $400 to spend on 40 roster spots, having a solid plan in place for Sunday is going to be crucial, so at the risk of my competitors seeing what I have in mind, I am going to lay out my plan here – and next Thursday we can see how well I stuck to it.

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First base is the most productive position in fantasy, whether you prefer traditional 5×5 scoring or the linear weights points scoring in ottoneu leagues. Late round first basemen like the two fellas we’re going to talk about today figure to be as productive as many top middle infielders in the power and run production departments, though they’ll probably lag in batting average and almost certainly will in stolen bases. Value is value though.

Lucas Duda of the Mets and Justin Smoak of the Mariners come from very, very different backgrounds. Duda was an unheralded seventh round pick who never appeared on any kind of top prospect list and had to prove himself each step of the way in the minors. Smoak was the eleventh overall pick in the draft and twice considered one of the 25 best prospects in the game by Baseball America before being the headliner in a trade package for an elite, ace-level pitcher. Despite those differences, they’re expected to produce almost the exact same fantasy value next year according to our Fan Projections…

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By the time you reach the last few rounds of your draft, your remaining options can look pretty scary.  Some people are grabbing middle relievers and potential save vultures, some people are picking up middle infield depth, and some are just stockpiling minor league players hoping that if you throw enough against the wall, something’s bound to stick.  For you, there can be another option and given the fact that we’re so far into the draft, the risk is minimal with a potentially enormous upside.  Laugh if you will, but Baltimore’s Chris Davis can make for an outstanding late round sleeper pick this year.

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This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our fourth over/under game, let’s take a look at closers in general. Every year, a gaggle of new closers are minted.

The over/under for today’s game is nine. As in, will there be more or less than nine new closers next year? For our purposes, let’s define a new closer as one who will accrue over 20 saves more than he did in 2011.

If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult Jack Moore’s excellent piece that attempts to use shutdowns and meltdowns to predict closer changes. You would even see a little more about the following figure:

But since you don’t have any more background than a simple tally of the last three years — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to predict the number of closer changes coming in 2012. Use any methods at your disposal.

Have at it!

In an effort to boost my post views and comment total, I went for the obvious to analyze my projections for next. Given the fact that Matt Moore has recently appeared on several 2013 Hall of Fame ballots, I thought it would be timely to determine just how worthy of a vote he may be. I present to you America’s Next Great Pitcher™. And yes, I have dibs on royalties if that becomes a future reality show.

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With Yahoo finally opening up its mock drafts, I am going to look today at how second basemen are being drafted at Yahoo compared to MockDraftCentral.com. Here is the list of 2B drafted at Yahoo and their positions drafted at MDC along with some notes.

Note: Remember that the rankings are highly based off of the website’s initial rankings of the players.

Notes

– The first major difference in the drafts was Ben Zobrist being taken 27 places higher. I have Zobrist lumped in with a group of 2B including Uggla, Young, Phillips, Utley, Kendrick, Cuddyer and Weeks (Rickie). At MDC, Rickie Weeks, on average, is being taken 1 spot ahead of Zobrist. At Yahoo, Zobrist is being taken 36 spots earlier. As a group, these 7 2B average being a taken at 67th over all at Yahoo. At MDC, they average being taken at the 77th spot. I believe there is plenty of talent at the 2B position and there is no reason reach for one of this group early. I think MDC’s numbers are closer to where these 2B should be drafted, about one round later.

– Danny Espinosa and Neil Walker are lower at Yahoo compared to MDC. I am guessing it is because everyone has already participated in a run on the over-ranked 2B earlier in the draft. The pair has been taken 100% of the time on both websites.

– Kelly Johnson is loved and Aaron Hill is hated by Yahoo compared to MDC. At MDC, they are being taken at almost the same clip. Johnson was taken 71% of the time with a ADP of 235. Aaron Hill was taken 81% of the with an ADP of 233. Aaron’s ADP drops 21 places to the lowest value among 2B at Yahoo. Johnson’s ADP jumps 24 spots and is the last 2B taken 100% of the time at Yahoo. Owners know that Hill has the ability to produce and are taking him late in 83% of the Yahoo leagues.

– Jason Kipnis is the biggest dropper from MDC to Yahoo of the 2B. His percentage drafted is similar (92% vs 97%), but is being taken almost 6 rounds later in the draft.

– I would not use the preset rankings for reference at all at Yahoo, especially later in the draft. If a person was to go off the percentage drafted, the ranking of the players are much improved.