The Cubs have had just six regular first baseman since 1989, but they’ll make it seven in 2012. The new Theo Epstein-led regime hopes that the recently acquired Anthony Rizzo will stake a claim to the job for the foreseeable future, but he’s unlikely to be manning the position come Opening Day. That honor figures to go to Bryan LaHair, a 29-year-old journeyman-type with big minor league numbers and 219 big league plate appearances to his credit.

“I don’t believe in four-A players,” said Epstein in December. “Guys who can hit will hit when they’re given a chance. [LaHair] continued to rake in winter ball.”

Epstein wasn’t kidding. LaHair posted a .443 wOBA with 38 homers in Triple-A this year, then put together a .381 wOBA in 28 MLB games late in the season, and then went on to hit .272/.404/.592 with 15 homers in 47 winter ball games after the season. All told, the former 39th round pick of the Mariners hit .313/.403/.633 with 52 doubles and 55 homers in 196 total games in 2011, which is obviously huge production. That’s all well and good, but what does it mean for his fantasy value in 2012?

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If you’re over on Mock Draft Central checking out recent ADP numbers, one of the more helpful tools they have is the ADP trend chart.  It gives a detailed look at each player’s rise and fall in the ADP ranks over the last two weeks which in turn helps you see whether or not you can actually wait on a particular guy in your draft or if you may have to act on him a little earlier based on a recent spike in popularity.  One player who is garnering recent attention and is shooting up the ADP rankings is Minnesota second baseman Alexi Casilla.

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The “Free Russ Canzler” movement can turn its attention toward the plight of some other minor league masher buried on the depth chart. Canzler, the 2011 International League MVP, figured to toil at Triple-A Durham again next year after the Tampa Bay Rays signed Luke Scott to DH and Carlos Pena to man first base. But the Cleveland Indians picked him up for cash after Tampa DFA’d Canzler, adding right-handed punch to a lefty-laden club that has tired of former CC Sabathia trade bauble Matt LaPorta’s flailing at first base.

So, Canzler (26 in April) has the chance to free himself from the chains of the “Quad-A” label. Is he up to the task? Maybe. Canzler’s power is impressive, he may well be Cleveland’s best option at first and his versatility will help him make the squad this spring, but putting his minor league numbers in greater context removes some of the sheen from his award-winning slugging.

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Last week’s Prince Fielder signing changed the fantasy landscape in many ways, most notably by making Miguel Cabrera the favorite to go first overall in drafts giving his impending third base eligibility. No one expects the Cabrera-at-third experiment to work — he was a -11 defender (by DRS) at the hot corner the last time he played the position regularly, which was five years and about 50 lbs. ago — but all he has to do is get those five starts in to gain eligibility and make fantasy owners happy. Some of his pitchers can’t be all that enthused, on the other hand.

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What’s the smallest number of plate appearances a player can have before he becomes a bust? There’s no handy algorithm for busts, no simple test like 0-for-X where as long as X > 15, the player is a bust. It’s a pretty informal, gut level feeling based on everything from expectations to the level of competition the player has failed against. Mat Gamel hasn’t yet reached 200 PAs in the major leagues, but I’ve seen less support for him than for most prospects-on-the-precipice, even those who have an actual track record of failure, which strikes me as odd.  Read the rest of this entry »

With one of the bigger signings of the winter completed last week in Prince Fielder joining Detroit, one of the more talked about fantasy storylines is Miguel Cabrera’s likely new third base eligibility. Jim Leyland has stated Cabrera wants to and will play third base, which helps his draft stock but could potentially hurt the stock of Tiger pitchers.

Jose Valverde may be affected more than the rest of the group. Converting 49 saves in as many opportunities will have Valverde’s draft value at an all-time high, with Mock Draft Central drafts currently averaging Valverde as the seventh reliever taken. If Cabrera is being drafted due to his likely third and first base eligibility, it is being assumed that he actually will appear at third base at least semi-regularly. While he only needs a bit more than a handful of games to qualify at third, Leyland’s comments give confidence in constructing drafts around the thought that Cabrera will play third base often. This means other players should be drafted under that same assumption, such as Valverde. There is at least some risk that Cabrera is the Tiger’s third baseman, which adds additional risk to Tiger pitchers.

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Sometimes, short and simple is the best way to go. As Sly and the Family Stone said — “Thank You Falletinme Mice Elf Again”… no it was “Sing a Simple Song” — sometimes it’s just about the ABCs, or in this case the ADPs. Let’s look at some Average Draft Positions for outfielders in the early going. We know some drafts start in February, and we know that at least 607 drafts have been completed at Mock Draft Central, so let’s use their excellent knowledge to benefit our fantasy teams.

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Although I am only about a third of the way through my hitter projections, I am already bored and have been itching to start up on pitchers. So after getting a taste of the methodology and process I employ in coming up with projections on the offensive side of the ledger, it’s time to look under the hood of my pitcher projections. The exciting part for you is that these projections will differ from the forecasting systems much more so than the hitter projections. So there is much more room for debate and of course having the fun of being right. Without further ado, it’s time to dive into how I project pitchers.

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