The Baltimore Orioles’ rotation was a disaster in 2011, ranking dead last in the major leagues in innings pitched, ERA and FIP as highly-touted young arms like Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman crashed and burned. The O’s and new GM Dan Duquette signed Japanese starter Tsuyoshi Wada last month, and now they’re looking to the Far East for another lefty in hopes of improving those dismal numbers in 2012, signing Wei- Yin Chen of Nippon Professional Baseball to a three-year contract.

Born in Taiwan, Chen pitched the past four years for the Japanese Central League’s Chunichi Dragons but had an opt-out clause in his contract that allowed him to become a free agent at age 26. Now that he’s coming stateside, what can we expect from Chen? Let’s take a closer look at his stuff and stats.

Read the rest of this entry »

Every fantasy owner looks for an edge over the competition. Using a hitter’s platoon splits versus right- and left-handed pitchers is one such method. When looking at these platoon splits, however, a fantasy owner needs to look a little further than just the basic splits to see if the difference is seen is with all pitchers or just relievers.

Historically, left-handed batters hit right-handed pitchers better and right-handed batters hit left-handed pitchers better (called the platoon advantage). With some players, the extent of the difference can be more or less than the league average. For hitters with extreme splits, it may be best to sit them and play someone else if they are up against a certain handed starting pitcher.

Read the rest of this entry »

A little personal exuberance aside, it isn’t likely that Japan’s newest (possible) position player import is an impact fantasy bat this year. His skill set, situation, and even posting fee don’t suggest a breakout is on the way. We can dream — but the realities of the situation are likely to wake us up.

Three years ago, work in my previous incarnation as an educational publisher had me in Japan regularly. The Yakult Swallows played in Tokyo and tickets were much easier to get than Yomiuri Giants tickets, so I was a default fan of the Swallows, as bad as that sounds, and their center fielder Norichika Aoki.

Read the rest of this entry »

All too often on draft day we find ourselves settling for a certain player at a certain position rather than walk away with someone we covet.  In auctions, sometimes the bidding just doesn’t go the way you expect and you have to bow out rather than overspend and in snake drafts, a run can come too early and before you know it, the top guys on your depth chart have been taken off the board.  When that happens, some people tend to overreact and just grab a guy to fill the spot before they find themselves scraping the bottom of the barrel.  It’s a panic move.  Unfortunately though, that usually leads to grabbing a guy too early at the expense of a better overall player or overspending on someone who should have gone for a cheaper price.  And in almost every case, the player is flawed and you end up having to convince yourself that you still made the right move.

Read the rest of this entry »

A pitcher in Petco Park should always be on your fantasy radar. With the trade of Anthony Rizzo, Andrew Cashner became the most recent pitcher to be acquired by the Padres. While Cashner will pitch out of the bullpen next season, he still could have some fantasy value. Things could get more interesting in 2013, when Cashner could move into the rotation. Knowing that Cashner might be far more valuable a season down the road, is it worth it to take a chance on him in a keeper or dynasty league next season?
Read the rest of this entry »

For the past 10 years or so, I have generated my own projections to use for my fantasy baseball drafts. As you can imagine, the spreadsheet has become more complex every year as I have incorporated more and more formulas in an attempt to increase the precision. Unlike the projection sets you are familiar with, such as ZiPS, CAIRO, Bill James, etc, I don’t actually have a system. It would be fantastic to have the programming and mathematical chops to be able to develop a full-fledged system that takes previous year’s stats and a host of other factors into account and instantly spit out a projection. Unfortunately, my method is very time consuming as I literally project every player by hand, poring over countless metrics on FanGraphs, ESPN Home Run Tracker, StatCorner, and Rotoworld, and in Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster.

Read the rest of this entry »

Theo Epstein’s and Jed Hoyer’s rebuilding of the Chicago Cubs continued Friday when they acquired highly touted first base prospect Anthony Rizzo and minor league pitcher Zack Cates from the San Diego Padres for pitcher Andrew Cashner and minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na.  For those scratching their heads at the deal, our own Paul Swydan (Padres perspective) and Jason Roberts (Cubs angle) break it down for you over in the main FanGraphs area.  Over here, we’re looking at the most immediate fantasy impact, and that really involves Rizzo who now finds himself on his third team in three years.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s incredibly difficult to be worse than Alex Gonzalez was in 2011. I mean, I bet you could. Yeah, you. I know I could. We don’t get paid to play baseball, though. Somehow, Alex Gonzalez did last season and showed his gratitude by hitting .241/.270/.372 in 593 plate appearances. He did hit 16 home runs. His lone redeeming quality. As a whole Braves shortstops combined to hit .237/.267/.357 with 16 homers, 57 RBI, 63 runs and two steals for a team that won 89 games and narrowly missed the playoffs. Gonzalez is gone so things should improve…right?

Read the rest of this entry »

As Paul Swydan outlined earlier this month, the White Sox are stuck in the middle. The South Siders are in an unenviable kinda-sorta-maybe rebuilding mode, having traded away Sergio Santos and Carlos Quentin but also extending John Danks and being saddled with commitments to the likes of Adam Dunn and Alex Rios that make Disco Demolition Night look like a sage decision by comparison. Unable to totally blow things up, they’re stuck clearing payroll and roster spots for young players where they can.

While the White Sox lack many (any?) blue-chip talents, the man replacing Quentin in right field, Dayan Viciedo, should be on your radar. Viciedo is young, powerful, increasingly selective at the plate and will benefit from taking aim at the U.S. Cellular Field bleachers.

Read the rest of this entry »

In 2010, Danny Valencia established himself pretty quickly as a fan favorite in the Twin Cities as he hit .311/.351/.448 after being recalled from the minors on June 3rd. In just 322 plate appearances, he hit seven home runs, drove in 40 runs and flashed a pretty solid glove by UZR standards.

He was no doubt on many fantasy radars entering 2011 given the relative dearth of talent at third base, and he rewarded believers with 15 home runs and 72 RBI, but a pretty disappointing .246/.294/.383 line, good for just an 82 wRC+. Probably not what you had in mind if you drafted him as your everyday third baseman.

There’s both reason to be optimistic and there’s some reason to be cautious when looking at his prospects for 2012.

Read the rest of this entry »