Based on some of the names Brian Sabean was rumored to be shopping at the winter meetings, it was hard to figure the Giants would pull off any sort of a deal, let alone one that would actually serve as an upgrade for the team.  But when he dealt centerfielder Andres Torres and reliever Ramon Ramirez to the Mets yesterday in exchange for 30 year old Angel Pagan, he did just that.  We’ll leave the defensive debate for Jack Moore’s piece over in FanGraphs ( I threw in my two cents in the comments section).  RotoGraphs is fantasy and in fantasy, for position players,  it’s about the hitting.  And offensively speaking, Pagan should fare well in San Francisco and improve the team’s leadoff hitting, something they are in desperate need of doing.

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While we aren’t sure whether or not Hanley Ramirez is going to stick around in Miami now that Jose Reyes has come to town to take over the shortstop gig, but if he stays in South Florida, how does the Reyes’ signing affect Hanley’s fantasy value?

It’s a safe bet that Hanley’s HR and batting average aren’t likely to be affected by Reyes’, but other aspects of his fantasy value will undergo some slight changes. Let’s look at them, shall we?

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No, not his skin color. If you missed the news (and that would never happen because you refresh FanGraphs every five minutes, right?), Sergio Santos went from being a White Sock to a Blue Jay yesterday. After saving 30 games while posting a 3.55 ERA for the Sox over the past year, this has clear fantasy implications. Is Santos going to be the de facto closer, and if so, how will he perform upon his move to the AL East?

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‘Tis the season of wheeling, dealing and spieling.

Baseball’s Hot Stove season gets all sorts of coverage. Among the general questions that can be applied to just about any scenario are: Which big name is rumored to be signing here? What trade chip would be a perfect match there? And does Buster Olney ever actually sleep?

While the transactions of note generally involve big leaguers signing with or being traded to new teams, one angle that often gets overshadowed is how those moves effect prospects. Sometimes, an inking or a deal by the parent club can be good news for minor leaguers, but many times, that’s not the case. What looked only yesterday to be a clear path to playing time for a prospect ready to contribute, instead has suddenly become a circuitous detour along a bumpy road with indecipherable signage, more than a few potholes and the ultimate destination — the majors — nowhere in sight.

With that in mind, buckle your seat belts as we take a look at a pair of young players whose 2012 stocks have been impacted head-on by some recent moves.

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With Sergio Santos being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Nestor Molina on Tuesday afternoon, it seems to signal the raising of a white flag of sorts on the South side. Santos had a pretty spectacular year, serving primarily as the team closer, posting a 2.87 FIP with a staggering 13.07 K/9, saving 30 games over 63.1 innings pitched. Santos is presumably the closer in Toronto, where he will have great fantasy value, but who will be handling ninth inning duties for the White Sox is very much up in the air — although they have plenty of options.

First in line would presumably be Matt Thornton, who entered 2011 splitting duties with Chris Sale, and then kinda-sorta handed the full time closer role, and then subsequently blew up and was relegated back to set-up duties. And while he wasn’t quite as dominant has he was in the previous two seasons, he was still pretty nasty — putting up a 2.62 FIP and a 9.50 K/9 rate. His strikeouts were down from 12.02 K/9 in 2010, but even at 9.50, it was right in line with his career average. He was stung by some bad luck with a strand rate of just 61.2% whereas his career rate sits at 74.7%, not to mention a BABIP of .326 where his career rate is .295. After a horrific first month of the season (5.91 FIP), Thornton was mostly back to his old self, throwing 51 innings, giving up 45 hits, striking out 53, allowing just one home run, posting an ERA of 2.45 and holding opponents to a .232/.286/.289 triple-slash. But if there’s truly a fire sale going on, it’s probable that they’ll be taking offers for Thornton too.

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The Marlins’ addition of Jose Reyes not only affects the 29-year-old shortstop, but also has a great impact on two other Miami players.

In October I penned a piece about Jose Reyes’ outlook for the 2012 season, focusing on a few factors that could be a burden or boon to his overall performance, specifically his health and the location of his new team. The health issue should be the biggest concern to fantasy owners and has been well documented so I’ll be brief. From 2005-2008 he averaged 158 games played. He hasn’t topped 133 the last three seasons. Unless his hamstrings magically heal over the offseason it’s nearly a guarantee that he’ll miss time. When healthy he’s a constant source of steals, runs and batting average from the thinnest position on the diamond. That’s first round talent.

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Much to our very own Brandon Warne’s chagrin, Matt Capps has returned to the Minnesota Twins, ostensibly to take over the role that he lost to Joe Nathan mid-season, serving as their resident fireman. The Twins have signed Capps to a one-year, $4.5 million dollar deal with a 2013 option for $6 million dollars. Fantasy managers, not to mention the Minnesota faithful, would like to know who plans to show up in 2012, the Matt Jeckyl or Matt Hyde version of Matt Capps.

In the last four seasons, serving as closer for the Pittsburgh Pirates, Washington Nationals, and the Minnesota Twins, he’s been dominant, and then miserable, twice over. His four year FIP rates as a world class amusement park ride:

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First base is pretty much the only position where you can get into the third tier and still find three players (and maybe a fourth) legitimately capable of giving your team 30 homers and 100 RBI next season. Of course most of those guys are likely to drag down your overall batting average, but sometimes that’s a trade-off you have to make because power is becoming harder to find. Major injury is another common theme in this tier.

Zach Sanders’ end of season player values were included for reference, though they were not the sole criteria used to create these rankings.

Tier One (link)
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Albert Pujols
Prince Fielder
Adrian Gonzalez

Tier Two (link)
Mark Teixeira
Paul Konerko
Eric Hosmer
Michael Morse
Freddie Freeman

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Save for San Diego, it’s hard to envision a more heavenly landing spot for a pitcher like Brad Mills than the Angels. An extreme fly ball lefty prone to whiplash, Mills bombed in three brief big league trials with Toronto, could be out of minor league options if he doesn’t qualify for a fourth option year and only stood a chance of making the Jays’ roster as the human equivalent of a white flag, a long reliever. But, after being swapped to L.A. for out-maker extraordinaire Jeff Mathis, Mills has the perfect blend of pitcher’s park, weak competition, strong outfield D and opportunity to succeed in the majors.

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On Friday, Chris Capuano signed a two-year deal with the Dodgers. After missing all of 2008 and 2009 with Tommy John surgery, he pitched decently in 2010 and 2011. If he can stay off the DL, he will be a nice buy-low option in deep leagues for 2012.

Chris started out his career with the Diamondbacks and the Brewers. He was able to put up decent K/9 numbers that ranged from 6.3 to 8.2. His walk rate was around 3.5 BB/9 and even dipped to 1.9 in 2006.

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