While some of you were eating leftover turducken or going all Mortal Kombat on someone for a waffle iron this past weekend, the Blue Jays slipped some cash Cleveland’s way and picked up a potential starting second baseman in Luis Valbuena. Valbuena, 26 this week, had no shot at meaningful playing time while stuck behind Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis, and he has done his best Juan Castro impression at the plate in the majors. But in Toronto, he might get the chance to make good on his big Triple-A numbers if free agent Kelly Johnson cashes in with a multi-year deal elsewhere.

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Josh Willingham had his best major league season last year with the Oakland A’s. He is now a free agent this off season and has yet to find a new home. No matter where he ends up, he looks to be a great sleeper pick for 2012.

Before playing for the A’s last season, Josh spent time with both the Nationals and Marlins. The right-handed-hitter had several decent seasons with 20+ HRs and around a 0.270 AVG. In 2011, he had his best power season with 29 HRs and a career high 0.232 ISO.

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Two weeks ago I followed up on Chris Cwik’s look at several busts from the past season with some more names. Now it is time to look at the opposite side of the coin, those supposed duds who turned out to be studs. In the studs to duds article, I explained why you might want to consider trading for each particular player. This time I will dive into why it may be prudent to trade away the player in question. Of course, I will have to ignore the cost to keep the player since every league has different rules. So think of this section as more of a handful of reasons why the player will be overvalued.

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Justin Verlander had himself a fine season, you may have heard. The first pitcher to win both the MVP and the Cy in about a quarter-century, he combined superlative peripherals with just a little bit of luck and the backing of a strong team to produce a season for the ages. He probably won his owners many a fantasy league. From personal experience, each team of mine that featured the Tigers’ ace won its’ league this year.

That’s all fine and good, but you shouldn’t draft Verlander next year. Focus instead on finding the next Verlander.

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There aren’t many closers worth keeping in traditional fantasy leagues, where keeper spots may be limited and are saved for the best of the best. Once you move beyond the game’s elite closers, you start to run into guys that carry greater risk, perhaps more risk than you’d be willing to assume with a keeper spot. Those are the guys you’ll find in Tier Two of our keeper rankings, including the two pitchers who started last year as the top fantasy closers in baseball.

I’ve included Zach Sanders’ end of season value rankings for reference, but they’re weren’t the only criteria used to put together the rankings/tiers.

Tier One (link)
Craig Kimbrel
John Axford
Jonathan Papelbon
Mariano Rivera

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It’s been a rough last couple of seasons for Grady Sizemore. After accumulating 27.4 WAR from 2005-2008 — making him the fourth most valuable position player in the league over that same period — injuries have crippled the superstar outfielder. Despite his recent struggles, the Cleveland Indians have once again enlisted Sizemore’s services for the 2012 season. It’s been quite a while since Sizemore made an impact on fantasy teams. Should fantasy owners expect more of the same in 2012?

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As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year.  There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people.  So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy.  Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere.  I disagree.  It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.

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A while ago, I ranked 2B according to their possible 2012 return using the Bill James Projections. There was some discussion in the comments on how detrimental it is to have a low AVG and SB number with a power hitter. I have decided to rank some 2B ‘roto style’ to help show how players that only have value in RBIs, Runs and HRs can be a drag on a team.

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In Part I, I looked at the offense on my FanGraphs Experts League team using the new ottoneu Roster Organizer tool. Today, I’ll finish up by reviewing my pitching staff and seeing where my team sits heading into trade season.

The pitching discussion should be interesting – I have choices to make on a legit ace (Roy Halladay), a bounce back candidate (Ryan Dempster), and more.
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Two National League outfielders didn’t quite make the final keeper tier, and they’re likely to be strong bounce-back players next year with statistics that would put them in the fourth or fifth tier. Why didn’t I put Andre Ethier and Jayson Werth in those keeper tiers if that’s the case?

It has more to do with perception and relative value, or the ins and outs of keeper leagues, than it does with those actual players.

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