Archive for October, 2011

2012 Catcher Keeper Rankings — Honorable Mentions

As I said in yesterday’s Tier 4, I have to draw the line somewhere as to which players are worthy of keeping and which ones should be thrown back into the pool.  That line has now been drawn.  However, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention a few names of some young up and comers that I think will blossom into potential keepers and, if you believe in them enough now, could warrant consideration for 2012 depending on how much they are going to cost you.  Again, relative value is up to you, but here are a few guys worth mentioning.

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2012 AL Starting Pitching Keeper Rankings: Tier Two

Welcome back to the second tier edition of the 2012 American League starting pitcher keeper rankings. To avoid any confusion in the comments (and boy has this series caused massive bewilderment):

-These are American League pitchers only. No, I did not forgot to rank Roy Halladay in the first or second tier.
-The dollar values listed are what the pitcher earned in 2011, not my projected 2012 value.
-Rankings are solely based on my projection for next season (this is not a ranking of what already happened in 2011), with some small extra weight given to future seasons beyond next to factor in the keeper aspect.
-Rankings are unscientific with no math behind them. Once I project every player and calculate resulting dollar values, these rankings will change, and some players may rise or fall significantly.

Now that we are on the same boat, here is a look back at tier one, which includes:

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Pitcher’s Luck: Part Time Starters

A few weeks ago, I looked at the luckiest and unluckiest pitchers that pitched over 180 innings in 2011. Today, I am looking at the pitchers between 120 and 180 IP. These pitchers are starters, but missed some starts in 2011 because of time in the minors, injuries or being shut down at season’s end.

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2012 Catcher Keeper Rankings — Tier 4

As we make our way through these rankings, let me just add in one thing.  While relative value is something we have left for you to ultimately decide, there are certain players whom I consider keeper worthy and those that aren’t in spite of things like the Fantasy Value Above Replacement spreadsheet that we have been using.  Sure, Yadier Molina may have outproduced Wilson Ramos according to our 2011 retro value, but am I keeping a catcher who is moving into his ninth season and will turn 30 years old at the All Star break because suddenly, out of the blue, he doubled his home run production last year?  Probably not.  It’s very difficult for me to think that a player who put up near identical numbers for his first seven seasons, suddenly can double his ISO mark in his eighth year and maintain that as his future level of production.  I see it more as a statistical anomaly than anything else.  Therefore, like each and every year prior, I would not even consider keeping Molina and subsequently must leave him off these rankings.

So today, I’ll throw out a few names of players to continue what we’ve done and tomorrow will finish it off with a few honorable mentions.  There will be some players left off this list, but again, we’re calling them keeper rankings and not every player is worth keeping.

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Prince Fielder’s Best Landing Spots

Prince Fielder is gonna make some serious bacon (er, soy) this winter. The meaty first baseman hits free agency as a 27-year-old boasting the third-highest home run total and tenth-best Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) among hitters since he became a full-time starter in 2006. Prince will be a premium fantasy pick no matter where he plays in 2012, but some parks are certainly more suited to his all-fields slugging than others.

To determine Fielder’s best landing spots, I identified potential suitors, found StatCorner’s left-handed home run park factors for those clubs’ stadiums and then used Baseball-Reference’s Play Index Tool to find what Fielder’s 2011 batting average, OBP and slugging percentage would have looked like if he had played in those stadiums instead of Miller Park (more details here).

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C.J. Wilson Just Saw His Draft Cost Drop

A week ago I analyzed David Freese’s big postseason and speculated that it would inflate his cost in 2012 drafts. C.J. Wilson, on the other hand, has likely seen his 2012 draft cost move in the opposite direction. Yesterday, Chris Cwik analyzed Wilson’s playoff struggles from a free-agent market standpoint, and today I will examine the impact it may have in fantasy leagues.

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2012 NL Starting Pitcher Keeper Rankings: Tier Three

Before we get to the third tier of NL starters, I will tell you that this set is filled with a lot of tweeners. Thursday’s fourth tier will be filled with guys I strongly considered for a spot here, but passed over, typically due to relatively poor strikeout numbers. Stephen Strasburg is one that isn’t likely to underperform this ranking, and I expect everyone on this tier to be right in this area, but if someone from four rises to replace someone that’s presently on three, it won’t shock me too much. Read the rest of this entry »


2012 Shortstop Keeper Rankings: Second Tier

Last week we kicked off our 2010 keeper league rankings, and Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes were alone in the top tier of shortstops. This week we take a look at a second tier that is filled with the new youth movement at a position that could use a shot in the arm.

Asdrubal Cabrera ($19)

How much you value Cabrera is likely in direct correlation with how much you believe in his power. He hit 25 home runs in 667 plate appearances last season after hitting just 35 home runs since 2006, spanning 2,713 plate appearances in both the majors and minors. Back in June I wrote about how I believed in Cabrera’s new found power, citing an Ohio.com piece, as well as one written by our own Joe Pawlikowski, which noted a change he made in his swing similar to that of Ben Zobrist. My views haven’t changed. He’s going to be 26 on Opening Day and provides 20 home run power to go along with 15-20 stolen base potential. Yes, his OBP and wOBA declined month by month, but if you believe in the power there’s no reason value him lower.

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Third Base Keepers: Tier Two (Part Two)

My Mother used to have a way of telling you that she really didn’t like something without having to sound outright nasty about it. She would size up whatever was in her cross-hairs — a haircut, a girlfriend, a new pair of tennis shoes and say, “well that’s… different.”

As I continue to look at the rather suspicious keeper prospects of third base, I can’t help but want to apply her diplomacy. Because this group, while mostly promising, is — well, different. The first tier for third base featured just Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria, and the second tier is full of some pretty great talent, but all come with question marks that leave their keeper status a little up in the proverbial air relative to what you paid for them and their perceived value going forward. On Saturday, we covered Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, and Adrian Beltre. And similar to that post, the remainder of this second tier is presented in no particular order.

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2012 AL Outfielder Keeper Rankings: Second Tier

This batch of American League outfielders is the smallest. The reason? Unlike those from the first tier, none of these players can be counted on to be an OF1 because of some kind of flaw, obstacle or hiccup…but all three of them are also capable of being your top OF in the end, if you squint through the appropriately-colored glasses.

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