Josh Tomlin (Elbow – 33.5% owned) – Josh is schedule to start on September 24th. It will be the 26 year old’s first start since August 24th.

Josh’s season started out hot with an ERA of 2.74 and a record of 6-2 after 10 starts. His K/BB ratio of 3.4:1 was decent, but a 0.197 BABIP was driving his stats. In the next 16 starts, he went 6-5 with a 5.24 ERA, even though his K/BB ratio jumped to 5:1. The main reason his ERA jumped was that his BABIP was 0.288.

The game on the 24th looks to be a nice chance to sneak in a win since Tomlin is facing the Twins anemic offense. It will probably be his only start of the season unless he pitches the last game of the season on the 28th. The game is a time to spot start him for an owner in a tight Wins race or an owner plague by starters being shut down for the season.

Joel Peralta (17.8% owned) and Kyle Farnsworth (elbow – 72.5% owned) – Kyle has not closed, or even thrown in a game, since September 10th. He has been shut down with elbow discomfort. He plans on returning soon, but the exact date is not known. In the meantime, Joel Peralta has been getting the Save opportunities for the Rays (a save on Saturday and Sunday).

Joel has pitched decently this season with a 3.06 ERA and a 3.28:1 K/BB ratio. Unless an owner was in a Holds league (18 holds in 2011), there is little reason to own him until now. He could be the boost an owner needs to move up a spot or two in the Saves category. The Rays are still fighting for a playoff spot and with over half of their games against the Yankees, the games should be close with plenty of save opportunities.

Watch the headlines for news of Farnsworth returning to his closer role. Until then, enjoy the few saves that can be squeezed out of Peralta.

Scott Baker (Elbow – 19.0% owned) and Jonathan Sanchez (Ankle – 35.6% owned) – Both look to return this season, but will be limited to bullpen use only. Owners planning on starts from them will need to look else where.

Johan Santana (Shoulder – 8.6% owned) – He will not be coming back this season.

As the sun begins to set on another dazzling baseball season, fantasy baseball GMs, especially keeper league owners, have been evaluating their current players in an effort to determine how right they were in drafting certain guys as well as what the prospects may be for owning them in 2012.  The catcher position tends to be somewhat of an afterthought if you’re not talking about a top name like Brian McCann and Carlos Santana.  But what about a guy like Mike Napoli?  In case you weren’t paying attention, after a slow start to the season, Napoli put up some fantastic numbers and, frankly, commands your attention when discussing the top players at the position for this year and next.

Let’s just hit the basics, first and foremost.  Fantasy baseball is a numbers game and you’re only as good as your level of production.  While Napoli was used plenty as a DH this season, he played in 55 games behind the dish and therefore maintains his eligibility.  Here’s a a quick look at the basic stats that are important to the fantasy game:

*based on a minimum of 250 PA

That’s not too shabby for a guy who was, on average taken somewhere in the 9th or 10th round of your draft.  Not only do his overall numbers blow away most of the catchers in the game, but he actually outperformed numerous players at other positions that were taken ahead of him in almost every draft.  If you want to talk position scarcity, then we can make a pretty good case for catchers, no?  But we’ll just stick with the backstops for now.

Obviously, the thing that stands out the most is just how productive Napoli has been in the limited plate appearances he has received.  It just so happened to be one of the biggest knocks on him coming into the season.  Only once in his career had he topped 500 plate appearances in a season, and while he was no longer under the rule of the Jeff Mathis-loving Mike Scioscia in Anaheim, the Rangers had brought in additional help behind the plate despite trading a coveted bullpen arm for him.  The playing time question was certainly an issue.

But in typical Napoli fashion, he accepted his limited playing time and still mashed the heck out of the ball, even while missing most of June with an oblique strain.  It may have taken him the whole first half of the season to get things going in the batting average department, but the post-All Star break surge cannot be taken lightly, nor dismissed.  While yes, his BABIP shot through the roof in the second half, you also need to take note that he also improved his walk rate dramatically while also lowering his K% to a much more respectable level.  Given his BABIP totals over the last few years, you can definitely say that his .385 second half average was partially luck driven, but you can’t deny that he also worked hard to improve his plate discipline.

Napoli is arbitration eligible right now, and given what he’s done for the Rangers this season, it’s hard to believe he won’t be back in Arlington next year.  Maybe they give him more work, maybe they give him the same.  Either way, a backstop with a .246 career ISO mark and is capable of hitting above .270 (just to keep it low and realistic) certainly deserves consideration over some of the top, yet under-producing names out there.  Yes, oft-injured Joe Mauer….I’m looking in your direction.

It’s the last full week of the regular season, so here’s some middle infield and pitching help for those of you needing to make up some ground in your leagues (or pad your lead, either works)…

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Welcome to Championship Week in Fantasy Baseball. If your team is currently fighting for the league trophy; this article is not for you. Nope. This article is for the majority of fantasy owners that fell short of the gold this season. Did you fight valiantly only to fall in the playoffs; or did your team crash and burn from the start? In either case, something went wrong for your team this season. Even though the sting of defeat is still fresh, there’s no better time to look back on your draft to figure out why your team isn’t fighting for the gold this season.
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– If MLB.com is to be believed, the second game in the Red Sox-Orioles double header will be one for the ages. Brian Matusz, owner of a 9.84 ERA, will face off against John Lackey, who sports an ERA over 6.00. If you’re a betting man, I’d suggest putting all your monopoly money on the over. It doesn’t matter what the line is, because no line could be high enough for this game.

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Last year’s amazing first half and full season performance supported by luck metrics that were unsustainable caused Ubaldo Jimenez to be overvalued in 2011 drafts. Of course, although many expected some regression, likely no one could have predicted an ERA of nearly 4.50 and a mid-season trade into the American League. For some context, let’s compare his 2011 skills with another skill set:

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I really don’t care for the characterization that a player is “injury prone” but for the love of all things great and small, what did Kevin Youkilis do as a kid to be this delicate of an athlete? In the last three seasons, he has played in 136 games, 102 games, and will likely top out around 130 this season. Always incredibly valuable, both in real baseball and fantasy baseball, but even when he’s on the field, he’s typically playing through some kind of pain. This year, it has been a litany of bumps and bruises and presently he’s dealing with a hip issue that’s going to require off-season surgery, but he’s chosen to power through. And yet, it’s killing his production.

Since returning from the disabled list, he’s appeared in 10 games and notched six hits — four singles (one of them an infield hit) and two doubles with 30% K rate and two RBI. Prior to that, he managed a .206/.306/.442 line in August, still drawing walks at a healthy clip but doing very little for run production. He’s a tough guy to manage right now because he’s constantly a game-time decision and even when he does start, he might only get a few at-bats, being lifted for a pinch runner, or simply removed later in the game.

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Casey Kotchman has been a nice surprise for the Rays this season by generating 2.4 WAR. The Rays have gotten little production from the 1B in recent years. Even with his breakout/comeback this season, he should get little consideration when creating a roster next season. Read the rest of this entry »

Continuing my post from Tuesday, we’re looking at multi-positional players who have added or dropped a position this season and how they forecast for 2012.

Ben Zobrist (2B, OF, losing 1B)

The extremely versatile Zobrist – he’s played everywhere besides pitcher and catcher – is going to lose his first base eligibility next season. He wasn’t an ideal fit for the position to begin with thanks to his moderate power numbers but could provide adequate production there if you wanted to load up on other areas first. He’s currently ranked as the 12th best first basemen, but sixth best second basemen, where most of his value lies. Although he’s not the prototypical fantasy first basemen his numbers actually profile better there relative to the outfield, which is the other position he qualifies at. A ~.270 average, ~15 home runs, ~90 RBI and ~20 stolen bases aren’t especially noticeable in the crowded outfield. Losing first base will hinder Zobrist’s fantasy value going forward, but he will still remain one of the top second basemen next season.

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I’ll be here by 12:30! We can talk streamers, keepers, sandwiches, you know, whatever.