Let’s face it — when the A’s acquired Kila Ka’aihue from the Royals on Tuesday, they simply added another mediocre Major League hopeful who crushes it in Triple-A but will probably never get it on the big league level to an already disastrous first base situation.  Ever since Jason Giambi jumped ship for the big bucks and bright lights of New York in 2002, the first base situation for the A’s has been a relative mess.  Sure, Nick Swisher brought some productivity to the  position when he was moved in from the outfield back in 2006, but you can add Ka’aihue’s name to a shameful list that includes such greats as Scott Hatteberg, Eric Karros, Erubiel Durazo, Dan Johnson, and Daric Barton.  You can throw in a post-steroidal Giambi and a way-past-his-prime Nomar to the mix as well if you like as well.  How the A’s end up mixing in Ka’aihue into the 1B/DH mix will ultimately be decided next spring, but fantasy owners are already speculating the potential ugliness for the A’s in 2012.

Read the rest of this entry »

Raise your hand if you have ridden the Homer Bailey bandwagon at one time in your life, got burned by his continual disappointment and have sworn off ever drafting him again. That is what I expected, every virtual hand in the air. Bailey is that player who will probably have that breakout season just when the entire baseball and fantasy world has given up on him. But here he is again, finishing the season strong and giving us hope one last time. But is it just another tease?

Read the rest of this entry »

Doug Fister

Back in the halcyon days of 2009, the Detroit Tigers — endeavoring to protect their narrow lead in the AL Central — made a deadline deal for one of the Seattle Mariners’ top performing players, and so began the ill-fated Jarrod Washburn era in Motown.

Washburn’s performance after the move was Hobbesian: Nasty, brutish, and short. In his eight starts after the trade, everything went in the wrong direction: his BB/9, H/9, and HR/9 all rose sharply, while his K/9 dropped like a counterweight. While Washburn isn’t solely to blame for the Tigers’ poor finish, he didn’t help matters much.

Snap back to reality.

The Tigers’ lead was a bit larger when they added Doug Fister from Seattle this July, but the impetus was the same, and fortunately for Detroit, the result was the polar opposite. Fister’s work for the Mariners had been solid: 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and a 2.78 K/BB ratio, but he has been downright unhittable since the move. His 0.91 WHIP since the All-Star break is the third lowest in baseball (min 50 IP) with the biggest difference coming in his walk rate.

His BB/9 of 2 with the Mariners was hardly bloated, but he’s been exceedingly stingy with the free passes since coming to the Tigers, having allowed just five walks in his 70.1 innings of work. His HR rate did tick upwards, but when he allows so few runners to reach base, they haven’t been particularly damaging. In fact, the four home runs he’s allowed with the Tigers have produced just five runs; of the 11 he’s allowed all year, nine have been solo home runs and the other two were just two-run home runs.

Just like Washburn wasn’t to blame for the ‘09 failure, Fister can’t take too much of the credit for the current team’s success — that credit lies as much with the rest of an atrocious AL Central as it does with the Tigers themselves — but there is certainly a correlation between Fister’s success and the team’s.

Justin Verlander will deservedly take the ball in Game One of the ALDS, matching up against CC Sabathia if current standings hold, which is a tough ask, even for the presumptive AL Cy Young award winner. Fister will get a much more favorable mound opponent, likely Ivan Nova, though it’s possible that Joe Girardi will give the ball to a veteran instead. In reality, it affects Fister very little, since he’ll be a better option than Nova, Bartolo Colon, A.J. Burnett, Freddy Garcia, or anyone else Girardi has at his disposal.

For those in playoff leagues, Fister could be an excellent sleeper option in the middle or late rounds. The NL still boasts the best SP2 options in Cliff Lee and either Yovani Gallardo or Zack Greinke, but if the Phillies and Brewers end up paired in the NLDS, Fister may be a more reliable option to sneak out a win. The biggest weakness in Fister’s game is a relatively low strikeout rate, just 6.1 per nine this season. Objectively, it isn’t terribly low, but when the talent level is as high as it is in these playoffs, fine distinctions must be made.

While I’d still rather have a top starter like Verlander, Sabathia, or Halladay, targeting Fister as a secondary option could set up a great playoff draft.

Third base has been rather unspectacular in 2011, in both fantasy baseball and spikes-on-the-ground baseball. With the playoffs just a few days away, I remarked to a colleague just how terrible third base looks for two of the six teams that we know will be in the post-season and how it’s a testament to the talent that surrounds them. Those two teams are the Milwaukee Brewers and the Detroit Tigers, but their third base situations aren’t quite the same.

Just how bad are their respective third basemen? What follows is a quick history of ineptitude at the hot corner for playoff-bound teams and a brief fantasy analysis for 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

Alex Avila has been one the great surprises of 2011. Coming into 2011, his full time job as the Tiger’s catcher was in doubt after they signed Victor Martinez. Alex jumped out to a hot start and finished as one of the top catchers in the league in 2011. Looking forward to 2012, his fantasy value looks to be changing.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here at Rotographs, it is brought up quite often that a player’s xBABIP and BABIP don’t agree. With the help of slash12, I have created a quick and easy method of calculating a hitter’s xBABIP. I have a downloadable spreadsheet that takes the batted ball data and calculates a xBABIP.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the death throes of the fantasy season, but some of you are still looking for every single at-bat you can get. Here are a couple players that might get you an extra hit or run. Who knows, it could make a difference!

Jason Pridie (0% owned)
You know the Mets’ season has taken an even sharper turn for the worse when their announcers are stupefied by something. But when Angel Pagan brained himself on a swing last week… well.. Let’s let the video speak for itself:

Read the rest of this entry »

The catcher position, with respect to fantasy baseball has seen quite the inundation of new talent.  There was a time when, if you didn’t own one of the big three — Joe Mauer, Brian McCann, Victor Martinez — it didn’t really matter who you had as your backstop.  Sure, there were some that were more productive than others, but overall, there were numerous interchangeable players and whether you grabbed one in the 9th round or in the 15th round, it didn’t make much difference.  Now, with blossoming stars like Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Alex Avila, and Matt Wieters, things are looking a little different.  The position is much deeper and production is on the rise.  One of these rising stars, though, has an interesting future ahead of him and fantasy owners will have some tough decisions to make.  What will come of Jesus Montero in 2012?

Read the rest of this entry »

The fantasy season is coming to a close. Whether your team dominated all the way through the playoffs — or stunk from the beginning — it’s always important to review your teams at the conclusion of the season. What went wrong/right? Most of that analysis can be done simply by looking at your draft results. Waiver-wire pickups and trades can have a significant effect on your team, but you acquire most of your players through the draft. If you happen to draft well, you have a chance at winning your league. Draft poorly, and it’s almost impossible to climb out of that hole.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday, I looked at three starting pitchers with the potential to experience a K/9 surge in 2012. Today I will use the same methodology of comparing the pitcher’s SwStk% to his K/9 to look for those who may see a K/9 decline next season.

Read the rest of this entry »