Archive for September, 2011

Surkamp and Stewart: Deep League Waiver Wire

This week’s hidden gems for you deep leaguers still in the hunt for the cash include a pair of young pitchers. Just what you want to hang your season on, huh?

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Roto Riteup: Wednesday, September 7th, 2011

Thanks to his outstanding start Monday night against Minnesota, here are some thoughts on Chicago White Sox pitcher Zach Stewart:

– While Stewart performed well enough to throw a one-hitter Monday night, his pitch mix was very interesting. He threw one change-piece against the Twins, opting to use just his fastball and slider. Scouts and prospect analysts have argued over whether Stewart is going to be a back or middle of the rotation starter, or delegated to bullpen duty in the long run. Unless he puts some work on developing and using a changeup, he’s going to be forced to the pen sooner or later.

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Plouffe and Freese: Waiver Wire

Trevor Plouffe (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 5 percent owned)

Though there are leagues out there that do factor in defense in one way or another, fantasy is by and large an offensive game, yet for the majority of the season, Plouffe was untouched in fantasy specifically because of his defense. To clarify, Plouffe had solid numbers in Triple-A this year — .313/.384/.635 with 15 HR in 51 games — yet languished behind Tsuyoshi Nishioka because of extremely inconsistent defensive play. Even when he was recalled, his playing time was sporadic at best, but injuries have forced the Twins into some odd defensive arrangements and opened the door for Plouffe to finally get consistent PAs.

Over the last three weeks, Plouffe has made the most of this new chance, hitting .292/.344/.461 with a pair of home runs even after taking an 0-for-6 in Monday’s doubleheader. His power is showing up more as gap power, rather than over-the-fence power, at the moment but his ISO is still above average thanks to a rising line drive rate, and his SS/2B eligibility make that power all the more appealing. He’s pulling the ball well, so while Target Field has a reputation for keeping home runs in the park, Plouffe shouldn’t suffer too badly; it’s easier to hit a ball out to left field there than it is to right.

Plouffe’s future is still a little hazy, though he has shown improvements on defense, which may give him a leg up in camp next year. AL-Only keeper league players might find it worth their time to keep an eye on him for this month, but unless he sets the world on fire, he’s not going to be handed the 2012 starting job until he wins it next spring. In the short term, he’ll be in the lineup close to every day for the rest of this season, which makes him a viable play if you’re in need of a middle infielder.

David Freese (Yahoo: 43 percent owned, ESPN: 65 percent owned)

A hot month of April had Freese flying off the wire early in the season, but a two-month layoff due to a broken hand has him available once again in many leagues. Since returning from the DL on June 28, Freese has hit a solid .276/.327/.422 with 7 HR from third base, and he’s driving in nearly 20 percent of the runners on base ahead of him, which has given him a good RBI rate.

While he’s producing well enough to be worth adding now, potential owners should take special note of the Cardinals’ weeklong road trip to Pennsylvania that starts next Monday. Freese hits a passable, if reduced, .269/.324/.415 at Busch, but excels on the road by hitting .329/.369/.456 with a fairly even split of his home runs.

If you’ve grabbed him for your bench and really want to pick and choose the games for which you start him, Freese has hit .369/.411/.554 in 73 PAs against lefties so far, while hitting .280/.328/.402 against righties. Generally speaking, playing Freese only against left handed pitching seems like overmanaging; his line against right-handers may be lower, but it isn’t objectively bad. Better to take both sides of the coin than to lose out on some of Freese’s production.


Third Base Updated Rankings: September

Sniff, sniff… the last full month of the season, and the final installment of the updated in-season rankings is upon us. Third base has been a bit of a roller-coaster this season, starting out devoid of virtually any worthwhile candidates to plug in at the hot corner until today, when many players have resurrected their seasons and others have quite frankly resuscitated their entire careers. It’s not the deepest position to be sure, but it’s not quite the mess that it started out to be.

I want to be clear that this is not third base rankings should a draft be held today for 2012. This is a reflection of the slow, methodical meander which is a 162 game baseball season and where these gentlemen currently belong, give or take a few slots depending on your format.

Tier 1

Jose Bautista

There’s simply little to substantiate Bautista having room up here in the penthouse. His wOBA is .448 — the next closest is Aramis Ramirez at .375 (edit – Alex Gordon at .382). He hit as many home runs in July and August as Alex Rodriguez has hit all season. You could come up with dozens of these examples, but I’ll spare you.

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H2H Playoff Strategies

You play to win the game.

Owners have messed and fussed the entire year (or years) to get to the playoffs. Now it is time to win it all. Every player on a playoff roster needs to be able to help the team in some way. Prospects may need to be dumped for players getting playing time. Don’t drop Bryce Harper if in a keeper league, but you need to make a decision on the your keepers for next season. Get a good idea of these keepers and the rest of the players on your team are then expendable.

Know your and your opponent’s weakness and strengths.

I have made the playoffs in one league and I will win the weekly categories of hitter walks and pitcher strikeouts. I haven’t lost these categories all season. My opponent should not be looking to pick up these categories. Instead they should be looking at Holds, Saves, HR and SB. These categories they have a chance to win.

To get an idea of where the battles are going to be fought, a couple of areas need to be looked at. First, I would look at the entire season rankings of stats, Roto style, and see where each team stands. Does the other team dominate Saves? Maybe compete in Wins then. Also, I would go back over the last few weeks and see how each team compares in various categories. Look to see if there was any significant changes to their team over that time. Did the team trade one of its closers for a power hitter?

Find the categories of contention and try to gain some advantage in them. Are you both close in steals and few extra could make the difference? Are they punting saves and a couple more SP/RP starters will help you win the K and Win categories?

Playing time is more important than talent.

The playoffs are not the time to go chasing after the next big thing being called up from the minors. With 7 of the 10 categories in basic H2H being counting stats, an owner needs players on the field. Also, make sure to check to see if any of your current player’s playing time has changed because of a player being called up.

If you have the win, don’t lose it.

Adjust as the week goes on by holding onto gains in certain stats. If an owner has a huge early lead in WHIP, Saves and ERA, remove the starters if the innings limit as been reached. Just coast with these values until the end of the week and concentrate on winning the batting stats. For example, feel free to drop a pitcher to make sure you have an extra catcher for off days.

Final games of the season.

Right at the end of the season, an owner can game the system with little recourse. If in a non-keeper league, dump pitchers once they have thrown their last start. Depending on what categories are needing help will determine which pitchers are picked up. If Wins and Ks are needed, pick up as many pitchers starting the final days. If you need to improve your ERA and WHIP, look for some good quality relievers to fill the vacated spots.


Nelson Cruz Replacements: Waiver Wire

There are three certainties in life: death, taxes, and Nelson Cruz hamstring injuries. The Texas slugger missed 54 games in 2010 and was on the DL three separate times thanks to his hamstrings. He even tried incorporating a new running style this season, one where he would focus on being more upright, to try and lessen the impact on his hammys. Apparently that hasn’t worked as he went on the DL August 29th. The Rangers have never been short on outfielders, and David Murphy has made the most of the increased playing this he’s received.

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Keeper Strategy — 2012 Impact Rookies: Second Basemen

This week, we continue our look ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief reminder of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Basemen

Here are the second basemen.

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2011 Holds Rankings: September

Last week we put together our final set of closer rankings for the 2011 season, and now it’s time to do the same for the guys handing them the ball. Here is August’s holds ranking, and here is the holds leaderboard for reference.

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Headley, Ludwick, Hafner, Baker, Santana: DLWW

Today, I am looking at players coming back from the DL in the last few weeks of the season. Most injured players are just being shut down, so the pickings are slim for players returning.

Chase Headley (finger – 36% owned) – If an owner is needing some help at 3B, Headley is planning on playing the last couple weeks of the season. From team reports, he looks to be available around the 15th. He will help a team maintain or give a small boost to their average. He may not get much of a green light for stealing bases since his finger was fractured on a head first steal. Don’t expcet many, if any, home runs since he has hit only 4 this entire season.

Ryan Ludwick (back – 20% owned) – Ludwick should return from the DL on Wednesday. He is one of the few sources of home runs available on the DL waiver wire. If an an owner is needing help in the home run category, he may be able to provide 2 or 3 additional shots in the final few weeks.

Travis Hafner (foot – 15% owned) – Hafner is already in the middle of his rehab and plans on returning to the team in about a week. Like Ludwick, he is not a great source of home runs, but one of the few sources available. Also, this may be Hafner’s final season, so I could see the team give him plenty of playing time to accumulate RBIs and Runs.

Scott Baker (elbow – 20% owned) – Baker has never been a flashy pitcher, but he is safest bet for a starting pitcher coming off the DL. He has a near 4:1 K to BB ratio for the season. He will make a nice addition to a team needing a little starting pitching help, especially in H2H playoffs.

Johan Santana (shoulder – 8.3% owned) – Santana plans on throwing a few times this season, with the Mets’ game on the 14th being the goal. The start is going to have an inning limit, so the impact will be minimal. He may be a good pick up for an owner that is having one of their other pitchers shut down for the season and needs a fill in. I would be cautious of starting him on his debut game. I would like to see the speed of his fastball and what kind of control he displays. Some owners, especially in H2H playoffs, may not have that luxury of sitting him because they need the stats. I see him as the highest risk/reward option in the up coming weeks.


Roto Riteup: Tuesday, September 6th, 2011

– Happy Stephen Strasburg day, everyone. Strasburg is set to pitch tonight’s Nationals-Dodgers affair against Ted Lilly. Could there be a bigger difference in pitchers in a single game? This author thinks not. While we don’t have a definite pitch count for Strasburg, the righty threw seventy pitches in his final rehab outing, so it’s probably safe to assume he’ll sit around the same mark during his first major league start of 2011.

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