There’s a few minor injury notes I’d like to get to, so let’s group them and put them in one place:

– Cole Hamels will miss a start thanks to inflammation in his shoulder. He still could end up on the DL if things don’t improve, but the good news is that this is nothing too serious. While missing a couple of Hamels’ starts isn’t that big of a deal for the Phillies thanks to their division lead, it could be huge for fantasy owners, especially in head-to-head leagues.

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A few rookies called up recently, Jason Kipnis, Brett Lawrie and Johnny Giavotella, have made a splash in their short time in the majors so far. The following is a look at the areas of concern for each player going forward that may bring their hot starts back to earth.
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Jair Jurrjens

The continuing saga of Dr. Jurrjens and Mr. Hyde is set to begin again Wednesday as Jurrjens is set to come off the disabled list and start against the Giants. Jurrjens was positively dominant in the first half, winning 12 of his 16 starts while posting an ERA under 2.00 and WHIP of just 1.07. His success came largely without strikeouts — he had the second fewest strike outs of anyone with double-digit wins — which is part of the reason his regression was so brutal in the second half.

Jurrjens’ BABIP of .260 was unsustainable, though as Jonah Keri noted, it may not have been as far out of line as it seemed. Nevertheless, Jurrjens was not only getting lucky on the balls put into play, he was also allowing a ton of balls to be put into play. When his luck began to wear out, his low strikeout rate exacerbated the problem, and he was unable to turn in a quality start in three of his four starts since the All-Star Break. It’s unlikely that Jurrjens’ first half performance is repeatable, but he isn’t as bad as his last four starts would indicate either. The truth, as it so often does, lies somewhere between the extremes.

In his four starts since the All-Star break, Jurrjens’ WHIP skyrocketed not only because of his BABIP coming back to career levels, but also because of a walk-rate that nearly doubled. Luck is what it is, but if Jurrjens wants to get close to his previous level of effectiveness, he needs to keep the extra runners off base. It goes without saying that more strikeouts and fewer walks are the keys to effectiveness, but for Jurrjens, they’re the difference between being a solid SP2 and being a fantasy also-ran down the stretch.

He gets a soft test Wednesday, so activate him without too much concern, but do keep an eye on his walks and his strikeouts going forward.

Javier Vazquez

I get the sense that Vazquez has burned a lot of bridges with fantasy owners, either in previous seasons or with his first 10 starts of 2011. I can’t blame owners for dumping him in May, after all, he had more earned runs to his name than strikeouts on June 1, but things have taken a turn for the better. Since the break, Vazquez has struck out nearly a batter an inning, and has given up more than 3 ER just once: His disaster start against the Padres on July 21.

That outing against the Padres — where he should have thrived instead of getting shelled — is emblematic of why Vazquez is owned in just 37 percent of Yahoo leagues and just 15 percent of ESPN leagues: All other things equal, a consistent player is vastly preferable to an inconsistent one, and Vazquez has been tremendously inconsistent. All pitchers carry some risk, but there aren’t many out there who offer the same range of possible production as he does.

If you need a spot starter for someone like Cole Hamels, Jonathan Sanchez, or Tommy Hanson, Vazquez is palatable in small doses, but recommending him for the rest of the season feels like a game of Russian roulette. The strikeouts aren’t a mirage, but his overall line is definitely propped up by a .262 second half BABIP. Though it is worth mentioning that his BABIP for the year is right at his career average, I would expect him to be closer to that .296 mark going forward than .262.

While upcoming starts against the Padres, Reds, and Mets don’t seem unduly arduous for Vazquez, it was exactly this kind of start that tripped him up last time. Nevertheless, if you need strikeouts, he’s a worthwhile risk for now, especially with his next start coming at PetCo.

You’ve surely heard by now, but Carlos Marmol blew the routinest of saves last night, coughing up a three-run lead against the Astros. He got a fly ball for the first out, but then came a single, a wild pitch (runner to second), another single (runner to third), a walk to load the bases, then a walk-off grand slam by Brian Bogusevic. Closers blow saves, sometimes spectacularly, but the fact that Marmol temporarily lost his job last month makes this a little more interesting.

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We’re getting down to that time of year where, unless you’re talking keeper league, it’s all about picking up the guy swinging the hot bat with a relative disregard for the long term.  If he keeps it up for a couple of weeks, then great, but no more worrying about small sample sizes or potential in the second half.  This is it.  So if you’re looking for some quick-fix help in your outfield, these guys just might fit the bill… Read the rest of this entry »

If you are still in the hunt for the cash, congratulations. If not, treat these waiver wire considerations as auditioners (not a word, but it should be) for your 2012 fantasy team. Unfortunately, these two hitters play on crappy teams, but hey, we cannot be picky with our pick ups at this point.

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Yesterday I mentioned that ESPN added a good deal of players to their player universe, but I failed to go in to depth as to who you should be looking at. So, without further ado, here are four names you’ll want to look into if you’re in a large ESPN keeper league:

– James Paxton, SP, SEA: Currently cruising in Double-A, Paxton was once a top draft pick of the Toronto Blue Jays, but refused to sign and has been the gauntlet ever since. He throws a fastball in the low- to mid-90s with nice movement, and the 22-year old also possess a very nice breaking ball. I’d guess Paxton is up during the middle of 2012 if not sooner, and with the Mariners defense and ballpark, he could put up solid numbers right away.

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First things first: While he isn’t really a fantasy-relevant player anymore, congratulations to Jim Thome for hitting his 600th home run. PEDs get too much credit for their role in the power explosion of the “steroid era,” but to accomplish such a tremendous feat without even a hint of controversy is a testament to Thome’s longevity and raw power.

Onward to the Wire!

Delmon Young (Yahoo: 42 percent owned, ESPN: 37 percent owned)

Before Thome’s pair of bombs stole the spotlight, the story out of Detroit was Young hitting a home run in his first PA as a Tiger off of former teammate Francisco Liriano. Young’s movement out of pitcher-friendly Target Field would seem to work in his — and by extension his owners’ — favor. However, as a visitor, Young hit a rather pedestrian .272/.329/.360 at Comerica Park with just 2 HR in 140 PAs, so it isn’t as though he’s about to be playing a lot more games at a personal launching pad. If Young gains any scheduling advantage, it’s minimal and comes from the fact that he’ll face Twins pitching instead of Tiger pitching, but the two teams have fairly similar opponents remaining.

So Young isn’t adding much value in his move, but does he have enough intrinsic value to pick up anyway? Young’s last two weeks might give you that feeling. In addition to hitting three of his five home runs since August 1, Young has posted a solid line of .303/.410/.576 and in the month since he came off the disabled list, he has hit .294/.363/.461. While success in July is par for the course for Young, his effectiveness so far in August is somewhat counter to his career norms. For his career, Young’s OPS falls from .899 in July to .733 in August, so if it feels like Young is walking on air ala Wile E. Coyote with his recent performance, you’re not far off.

If you’re looking to replace someone like Logan Morrison in mixed, Young isn’t a bad play, but don’t make the mistake the Twins made and expect the world from him. He’s not going to kill your average and has a little power upside, but that’s about it. If you need consistent power, look elsewhere.

Mike Carp (Yahoo: 21 percent owned, ESPN: 62 percent owned)

In his 106 PAs prior to this season, Carp had hit one home run in the majors. Since August 1, he has hit four as part of a month-long hitting streak that has given him a line of .389/.421/.685 for the month and has raised his season OPS from .792 to .920. Carp hit 21 HR in 66 games for the Triple-A Tacoma this season after hitting 29 at the same level last year, so the power isn’t a mirage, though I somewhat doubt he’ll continue at quite this pace.

It isn’t just the power that’s making Carp a compelling option, as he has just two games without a hit since the All-Star break. He’s contributing solidly in three categories and even adding a few runs.

Even if Carp cools off a bit — a development that shouldn’t come as a surprise when it comes; his second-half BABIP is .435 — his move from the bottom of the order to the clean-up spot should help him continue to get RBI chances, something he didn’t see much of in June or early July. He’s definitely playable in AL-Only and deep mixed, but because he lacks a major league track record, it would be wise to keep a close eye on him if you choose to roster him. His regression could come swiftly and with little warning, but for now, it’s worth riding the hot hand.

Yesterday the Tigers traded for light hitting outfielder in Delmon Young. That would seem fitting, considering they seemed to be full of them already. I’m going to focus on the one that will likely have the most fantasy impact going forward.

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Among the plethora of blue-chippers that the Kansas City Royals can call their own, Mike Moustakas was by most accounts the most anticipated Royal prospect to arrive on the major league stage (with due respect to Eric Hosmer). His 36 home runs and 124 RBI over 118 minor league games in 2010 had fantasy managers salivating for a call-up. After making mincemeat out of opposing minor league pitchers early this season, the Royals didn’t waste any additional time. He immediately singled in his first major league at-bat, hit a 391-foot home run off Joel Pineiro in his fourth at-bat, and it seemed the Moustakas era was off and running. But that’s pretty much the entirety of the good news.

What has gone wrong? Well, just about everything.

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