I always love an under dog story and this season that love story has come in the form of Ryan Roberts. The thirty year-old has hit 5 more home runs this season than in his 5 previous MLB seasons combined. Even though a few older players finally are able to break out (see Jose Bautista), the data shows that Ryan probably won’t be one of the those players. My heart is still pulling for him though.

Ryan was drafted in 2003 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 18th round. In 8 minor league seasons, he hit for a triple slash line of 0.274/0.373/0.448. Not shabby, but nothing to really write home about. During his minor league days he hit 96 home runs, or 1 every 33 PA. During that time frame, both of the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers released him before he ended up signing with Arizona. With Arizona he was able to get a total of 422 PA in 2009 and 2010. In the 5 seasons he saw MLB playing time, he hit for a slash line of 0.251/0.333/0.389 in 453 PA.

In 2011, not that much has changed in Ryan, except he has decided to begin hitting with more power. His slash line this season is 0.259/0.355/0.447. His AVG and OBP are nearly the same, but his SLG has increase quite a bit. It is being fueled by 15 HRs, or 1 every 26 PA. This rate is better than he did in his minor league career. This jump in home runs can further be seen in his increase in HR/FB% from a previous value of 7.1% to 12.8% this season. He is actually hitting just about the same percentage of fly balls (42.5%) compared to his career value (43.6%).

The increase in home runs could actually be from hitting the ball further this season. The following is a graph of his average batted ball distances over the past 3 years on fly balls and home runs.

It can be seen that even during this season, he is not hitting the ball as far. The previous graph almost mirrors the following graph of his ISO over the last 3 years.

I don’t see any signs of his home run power being real.

The one addition trait for Ryan is that he has stolen 14 bases in 21 attempts this season. In his previous 5 seasons, he had a total of 7 SB in 10 attempts. Thirty year-olds are not really known for their speed break outs. I would be amazed if he continued to get the green light in the future.

As much as my heart wants the journey man/late bloomer to be the real deal, the information shows that this season is pointing to a career year for Ryan and not much more. His power burst this season is hallow and he is not going to enjoy the speed numbers going forward considering his age.

Roy Oswalt (Yahoo: 87 percent owned, ESPN: 96 percent owned)

Oswalt’s Sunday start wasn’t good, but neither was it a complete disaster. He allowed far too many baserunners against an offense that hasn’t always punished such generosity, which is why there’s a justifiably fair amount of weeping and gnashing of teeth over what was technically a quality start. Making any sort of grand judgment after one start is foolish — even more so when it’s his first start off the disabled list — but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to learn from Oswalt’s effort against the Giants.

Matt Swartz noted during Oswalt’s start that the righty’s velocity looked low, which was part of the reason the Giants had little trouble squaring him up. Oswalt’s average fastball velocity this season is 91.2 mph, a full tick slower than it was last year, which is somewhat worrisome on its own. If he drops even further form there, he could be in real trouble. While he doesn’t live or die by high velocity, Oswalt isn’t going to thrive with a fastball that tops out at the same speed he averaged last year.

His drop in speed could well be directly related to his time on the disabled list, so it bears watching in his next few outings as he resumes his normal turns through the rotation. Assuming the Phillies stick to their current rotation, Oswalt should make back-to-back starts against the Nationals, who should provide a fair test of Oswalt’s remaining stuff. The decision to start or sit him is yours, but I’d wait until he’s made at least one more start before dropping him outright.

Stephen Strasburg (Yahoo: 35 percent owned, ESPN: 16 percent owned)

Last summer, as he awaited his call to the majors, everything start Strasburg made was front-page material, and while his rehab starts aren’t generating quite as much publicity, it’s pretty close to the same depth of coverage. His first outing was a good showing; the numbers are pretty much immaterial — ok, getting four of his five outs via strikeouts is pretty nice — it’s the fact that he felt good during and after the start that even borders on relevancy.

While there’s a good chance Strasburg will see some time in the majors in September, make no mistake, it is not a given that he will. Each start will see Strasburg ramp up his pitch count and if at any point he looks like he’s not coping well with the increase, the Nationals aren’t likely to push him through it. The risk is simply too much greater than the reward at this point in the season, which is big reason I feel that adding him now is prematurely speculative. If he makes 3-4 successful rehab starts, and you foresee needing a spot start in September, then perhaps he bears consideration.

Jordan Zimmermann owners should be especially cognizant of Strasburg’s progress through the minors, as there is a non-zero chance that Zimmermann will be shutdown at around the same time that Strasburg is ready to come up. However, with Brad Peacock already performing well in Triple-A, there’s no guarantee that Strasburg will be the one who replaces Zim in the rotation. As Zimmermann’s cap becomes a more pressing, the situation should become clearer, but if you know you’re going to need to replace one Nats pitcher, there’s a good chance another good option will soon become available to you. It just may not be the one you’re expecting.

We’re down to about the last seven weeks of regular season baseball and entering into a period where managers start to tweak their teams in reaction to categorical standings (thinking rotisserie style, that is). Due to any combination of injury, ineffectiveness, or incompetence, you may be looking for a little lightning in a bottle off the waiver wire to boost a category here or there. What follows are more deeper-league options, but a couple of these guys even might provide value in standard league formats depending on where you need a shot in the arm.

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Per-pitch numbers stabilize quicker than per at-bat numbers, or so goes an untested belief. Tested or not, the sample is larger, as the average at-bat lasts between three and four pitches. So you’d think that per-pitch numbers would stabilize up to four times faster.

Well, maybe the relationship is not so linear. But let’s use per-pitch numbers to take a look at Dontrelle Willis, who struck out ten Rockies last night and suddenly looks like a beast. Yes, that Dontrelle Willis.

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– Granted he’s only had a handful of plate appearances in the bigs, but Trayvon Robinson does not look MLB ready to me. He’s been swinging quite a bit, often at bad pitches, and he has also been rolling over on balls. I was surprised to see him swinging so freely due to his high minor league walk rates, and it’s entirely possible that he’s just pressing right now in an effort to make an impression in his debut. Still, unless he becomes more patient and aware of what pitchers are throwing, he’s going to need another half-season in the high minors.

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Dexter Fowler (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 38 percent owned)

We all have our fantasy vices, guys we draft too early or hold on to too long in a vague hope they’ll fulfill their promise. Fowler is one of mine, but he finally seems to be making good on his potential. Since the All-Star break, Fowler has hit .322/.426/.522 and, seeming to answer one of the biggest knocks against him, has stolen six bases. His season line is propped up by a .377 BABIP, which would seem to scream regression, but Fowler’s career average is an already-elevated .345. So while he may still regress, the drop isn’t likely to be as steep as it may seem at first blush. Fowler is still available in most leagues and is definitely an option in NL-Only or even deep mixed.

Trayvon Robinson (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent owned)

Robinson is getting a lot of press lately, for being a coup for Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik as well as for his defensive prowess, but don’t get caught up in the buzz. The problem that Jeff Sullivan highlighted — Robinson’s high strikeout rate — looks as though it isn’t going away any time soon, as he has struck out in five of his 12 plate appearances. It’s a perilously small sample, I don’t expect him to strike out in 42 percent of his PAs going forward, but as he continues to impress in the field and hit the odd home run, consider this a call to patience. Late-round sleeper next year? Quite possibly. Good option for the last two months of this season? Unlikely.

Denard Span (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 32 percent owned)

This time last week, Span was breathing a sigh of relief, having survived swirling deadline rumors that had him all but signed, sealed, and delivered to the Nationals. Span came off the disabled list last Tuesday for the first time since sustaining a concussion on June 6, when he was hitting .294/.361/.385 with four steals. In his week back in the land of the healthy, Span hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with a line of .042/.080/.042 in his six games. What has been interesting is that, despite almost never having the opportunity to do so, Span swiped a pair of bases, raising his season total to six.

I can’t recommend picking up Span right now in any format; he just doesn’t yet look fully recovered at the plate. However, if the Twins are committed to giving him the green light as often as they did with Ben Revere, Span could rack up solid stolen base numbers the rest of the way — provided he can start getting on base. It should be noted that even when he’s fully healthy, Span holds far more value in OBP leagues than traditional AVG leagues.

Chase Headley (Yahoo: 26 percent owned, ESPN: 47 percent owned)

Headley looks like he’s going to miss the majority of the rest of the season with the broken left pinkie he sustained on Aug. 7. Viable replacement include Justin Turner (owned in 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues), Ty Wigginton (40 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 39 percent of ESPN leagues), and Danny Valencia (29 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 50 percent of ESPN leagues). Valencia had a strong month of July (.303/.336/.468 with 4 HR), but has just six singles so far in August. Wigginton is hitting well so far, .316/.418/.439 since the break and .412/.545/.588 in August, and may be the best short-term option to replace Headley if he’s available to you.

The Royals took another step forward in “The Process” Friday, promoting 24-year-old second basemen Johnny Giavotella to the big league club. Any move that severally limits the number of at bats of Chris Getz receives is a step in the right direction.

The 2008 draft is beginning to pay early dividends for the Royals. They selected Eric Hosmer third overall and took promising lefty Mike Montgomery 36th. Hosmer is a rookie of the year candidate already while Montgomery had stellar minor league numbers until running into a hiccup in the Pacific Coast League this season. In the second round, with the 49th overall pick, they selected Giavotella. The diminutive second basemen has hit well in every level of the minors, compiling a career line of .305/.375/.437 in 1971 plate appearances. His wOBA over the last two seasons at Double-A and Triple have been .390 and .383 respectively.

While those figures are impressive it’s important to notice that Giavotella played in some very hitter friendly ballparks. His home park at Northwest Arkansas in Double-A was extremely kind to hitters, and while the Triple-A Omaha Royals’ park is extremely neutral it is member of the Pacific Coast League. The average hitter in the PCL this season has a slash line of .287/.360/.453. So…yeah. This is why wRC+ was invented. It tells you how much better or worse a player was than league average, with 100 being the baseline. Giavotella’s wRC+ at AA and AAA were 139 and 116, so he was 39% and 16% better than league average at those levels. Those numbers are still good of course; just not as good as a ~.386 wOBA would have you believe. That’s not taking into account his position, though. An above average second basemen is extremely valuable, both in real life and here in our fantasy world.

Second base has become one of the deeper positions with players like Michael Cuddyer, Michael Young and Ryan Roberts qualifying there. Giavotella is going to get a chance to play every day and show the Royals what he can do leading into 2012. He’s hit well in the five games since his call up and ZiPS gives him a final line of .278/.336/.398 with 2 HR, 4 SB, and 13 RBI in 145 plate appearances. That’s more than you’re likely to get out of Maicer Izturis, Justin Turner, Jemile Weeks and Alexi Casilla to name a few. For now he’s a solid pickup in A.L. only leagues and could prove to be a viable starter in mixed leagues in 2012.

We’re starting to approach fantasy crunch time, so those of us in roto leagues are beginning to scrounge for ways to boost whatever categories we’ve fallen behind in. Pitcher wins is always a popular category, and stocking up on middle relievers that have the potential to steal a few wins down the stretch is a viable strategy. Here’s three guys in a position to vulture some wins during the final seven weeks of the season.

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With the trade deadline firmly in the rear view mirror, it’s time to quantify the fantasy fallout from all the dealing and wheeling, goings and comings, thither and hither. Strike that, reverse it. In other words: Rankings!

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– With Jed Lowrie ready to return from the disabled list, it appears that he and Marco Scutaro with split time at shortstop for the mighty Boston Red Sox. With that lineup, it may not matter to Boston who ends up in the starting lineup, but this is a big blow for fantasy owners. Heading into the season, I had a hard time projecting numbers for both of the Boston infielders due to playing time questions, and did not draft either of them in the process. If for some reason you own one of the aforementioned shortstops and don’t have a backup plan, I feel sorry for you. If you’re looking to add a player off the wire and Lowrie is available, he might not be a bad pickup. If he hits, he’ll stay in the lineup. Bottom line.

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