Here is the latest update to Week 16 two-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update: Wakefield, Bergesen, Enright.

Pitchers no longer scheduled for two starts: Baker, Duke.

Let’s take a look at Tim Wakefield. It’s hard for some fantasy owners to take Wakefield seriously given his advanced age and questionable role on the team, but the veteran knuckleball pitcher does deliver something that most fantasy players value – consistency.

Since 2005 here are Wakefield’s annual FIPs and we use this one because he does seem to have an ability to limit HRs:

4.75, 4.93, 4.67, 4.84, 4.58, 4.52 and a 4.73 this season.

Now those FIPs have not always delivered a consistent ERA, but when Wakefield was in the starting rotation he was an excellent bet to deliver double-digit Wins each season. This year Wakefield started out in the bullpen but he has been permanently in the rotation since May 22nd. Here’s how he’s fared since then:

5-2, 4.47 ERA, 4.64 FIP.

Wakefield simply gets the job done. The one troubling thing about Wakefield has been a decline in his already poor K-rate. For the previous five years, Wakefield posted K/9s in the 5.00 range. This year that number has dropped to 4.41, a noticeable change. Fans can be somewhat encouraged by Wakefield’s last start before the All-Star break, when he fanned seven batters over seven innings pitched in a win over the Blue Jays.

This week Wakefield has a start in Baltimore against Brad Bergesen, who has been ineffective this year as a starter and who is also trying to come back from being hit by a line drive. His second start this week is at home against the Mariners, the team last in the American League with a 3.21 rpg. Seattle also has the second-most strikeouts of any club in the AL.

The matchups seem favorable for Wakefield this week and as he is still unowned in most leagues, he is a potential streaming option for the period.

Matt Wieters was supposed to be a switch-hitting Joe Mauer with power. He ranked as the top prospect in the game prior to the 2009 season, and he inspired a Matt Wieters Facts page with gems like, “Scott Boras Hired Matt Wieters As His Agent” and “Matt Wieters Took Batting Practice This Morning. There Were No Survivors.” Given that backdrop, anything less than MVP-caliber performances from Wieters wouldn’t satiate the masses. And that’s a shame, because Wieters has quietly become one of the better catchers in the game while attention has been fixed on finding the next Next Big Thing.

Take a look at Wieters’ offensive performance over the period of 2009-2011:

2009: .288/.340/.412, .330 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
2010: .249/.319/.377, .303 wOBA
2011: .265/.324/.417, .326 wOBA

Some people might look at those lines and say that Wieters had a promising rookie year, tanked in 2010 and is hitting slightly worse in 2011 at 25 years of age than he did as a 23-year-old. Viewed through that prism, Wieters looks like a disappointment. But that thought process is flawed because it doesn’t frame those numbers within the context of changing run-scoring levels across baseball.

In 2009, major league teams scored an average of 4.6 runs per game. That total fell to 4.4 runs per game in 2010 and is down to 4.2 runs per game in 2011. Look at the effect that drop has had on the collective MLB line for hitters over the years:

2009: .262/.333/.418, .329 wOBA
2010: .257/.325/.403, .321 wOBA
2011: .253/.319/.391, .315 wOBA

The line for catchers over that time frame has nosedived from .254/.320/.395 in 2009 to .249/.319/.381 last season and .242/.314/.379 this year. With teams scoring fewer runs, comparing a hitter’s line in 2011 to years past is an apples-to-oranges exercise.

Put in proper context, Wieters’ 2011 season is indicative of a young player making solid offensive progress. At a time when hitters are faring worse as a whole, Wieters is showing more power, hitting fewer ground balls and striking out less. His park-and-league-adjusted line this year is two percent better than average (102 wRC+), while his rookie season was five percent below average (95 wRC+). But it might not feel that way to some fantasy players, given Wieters’ gargantuan expectations and the difficulty in mentally adjusting to the lower run-scoring levels in the game over the past several seasons.

Wieters has the sixth-highest wOBA among catchers qualified for the batting title, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection ranks in the top 10 among backstops who figure to get frequent playing time. Yet, he’s still on the waiver wire in 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Some owners waiting on Superman are missing out on a quality, mid-twenties catcher with upside remaining.

This week, we’ll cover two Padres and a Dodger. In other words, those of you in NL West-only leagues are in luck.

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Eno Sarris will start you off at 115 and then Christopher Cwik will tag in later to give you all the fantasy chatting you can handle for the start of the second half. Get your questions in early!

Since we’re over halfway through the fantasy season, most owners have a pretty good idea what categories they can make a push for points in during these next couple of months. With that in mind, here are a few players that can help you in specific categories if you give them the chance.

Jeff Keppinger: Batting Average
One of the few trade chips the Astros have at their disposal, Keppinger has hit better than the magical .300 mark this year after hitting .288 last season. Keppinger’s ability to make contact is absolutely ridiculous at the moment, as he is one of three players with at least 150 plate appearances to post a SwStr% below 2%. I don’t know if he’ll be able to hit .300 all season long, but odds are he’ll hit at least .285 for your team.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 16.

Scott Baker – After missing a start before the All-Star break with a sore elbow, Baker is in line for two starts this week at home against the Indians and Tigers the top two teams in the AL Central. But the Indians are 28-34 since starting off the season 20-8 while the Tigers have played .500 ball over their last 32 games, so neither team is hot. Baker has been outstanding at home this year, where he has a 4-1 record with a 1.97 ERA. While he’s allowed 9 HR in 65 road innings, Baker has permitted just 3 HR in 45.2 IP at home. He is a risky play due to the unknown status of his elbow, but if he is in the lineup you’ll want him in yours to take advantage of the home starts.

Mark Buehrle – A pitcher who traditionally outperforms his xFIP, 2011 is no different for Buehrle, as he has a 3.42 ERA compared to a 4.06 xFIP. After getting knocked around in four of his first five starts, Buehrle has been a reliable pitcher over his last 13 games. He has a 2.72 ERA in that span with 12 Quality Starts. Buehrle has two road starts this week and he has pitched better this year at home. But he goes up against the Royals and Indians. Kansas City is the worst team in the AL while the Indians rank 14th in OPS against LH starters. Look for Buehrle’s strong pitching to continue and keep him in your lineup.

Chris Capuano – This week Capuano has a home-and-home with the Marlins and Clay Hensley. Capuano has a 4.12 ERA this year but he’s been better than that most of the season. In his last 13 games he has a 3.59 ERA with 68 Ks in 77.1 IP. Capuano does not go deep into games but when he keeps the ball in the park he gives his team a chance to win. He’s allowed 13 HR this season and nine of those in his last 77.1 IP. However, the Marlins are 10th in the NL in HR, just under the league average. Neither Sun Life Stadium nor Citi Field is a big HR park so this appears to be a favorable week for Capuano.

Jason Hammel – Perhaps no pitcher in baseball is happier that Interleague play is over than Hammel. In four starts against the AL, Hammel allowed 17 ER in 23 IP for a 6.65 ERA. Against the NL, Hammel has a 3.59 ERA. He has favorable matchups this week with a home start against the inconsistent Derek Lowe and a road start against the very hittable Zach Duke. The Rockies are not as potent in road games as they are in Coors Field but Chase Field is also a good hitter’s park and Colorado is second in the NL with a .758 OPS versus lefty starters. Chances are he’s on the waiver wire in a mixed league and Hammel makes an excellent streaming option this week.

Jason Marquis – In his first 13 games, Marquis was 7-2 with a 3.67 ERA and a 47/23 SO/BB ratio. Since then he’s 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA with 11 BB and 13 Ks in 25.2 IP. His xFIP is still 70 points below his career average, so there’s still plenty of potential regression left for Marquis. He has two road starts this week and his ERA is 4.74 away from home, 1.48 higher than his mark at Nationals Park. If you picked him off the waiver wire, you likely got some good mileage out of Marquis already. But it’s time to quit while you’re ahead and put him on your bench this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 16 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Halladay, Lee, Jimenez, A. Sanchez, Liriano, Colon, Pineda, Billingsley, Hellickson, Ogando, Burnett, Vogelsong, Stauffer, Beachy, Lohse, Lowe, Wolf, Gee, Guthrie, Porcello, Collmenter, McDonald, Carmona, Cecil, Lyles, Chatwood, Willis, Duke, Hensley, Lopez, Davies

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 14 pitchers and how they fared.

Lewis – Advised to start. W, 13 Ks, 4.85 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 13 IP, 7 ER
Marcum – Advised to sit. 9 Ks, 5.25 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 12 IP, 7 ER
Rodriguez – Advised to start. 9 Ks, 7.94 ERA, 1.765 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 10 ER
Stauffer – Advised to start. W, 2 Ks, 3.00 ERA, 1.417 WHIP, 12.0 IP, 4 ER
Zimmermann – Advised to start. W, 11 Ks, 2.92 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 4 ER

At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Heyward’s 131 OPS+ as a 20-year-old bested that of Willie Mays and put him in the same company as Ken Griffey Jr. It’s no surprise, then, that there were enormous expectations for the Braves’ right fielder in 2011: the fans projected him to hit above .290 while getting on base nearly 40 percent of the time and slugging north of .500.

Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. It’s impossible for anyone outside of the Braves’ training room and front office to assess Heyward’s health. But let’s diagnose why Atlanta’s prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season.

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(it takes me a while to get there, but in this post I propose an alternative to the current FanGraphs Points scoring system for pitchers)

Last week, LuckyStrikes asked me to do a post talking about and defending the scoring system used for pitchers in ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues (I’m the one that developed it).  He pointed out that Doug Fister has been a top-20 pitcher thus far in FanGraphs Points, and went so far to say that it seemed like any scrub pitcher in San Diego or Seattle seems to do well in this system.

Here’s the thing: Fister arguably has been a top-20 pitcher thus far (or, at least, right on the fringes of top-20).  He has 2.7 WAR, which ranks exactly 20th in MLB right now among pitchers, with a 3.09 ERA and a 3.13 FIP in 125 innings!  He’s been fantastic.  In fact, the entire Seattle rotation has been fantastic:

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With the second half of the season beginning this weekend and your league’s trade deadline rapidly approaching, keeper league owners are making the same tough decision that numerous MLB teams are making.  Are they buyers or sellers?  If in contention for a top finish, keeper league owners are deciding which stud protect to deal off to bolster their roster for a run at the title while the bottom-feeders are licking their chops, ready to give up the world to get their man.  It turns into quite the ugly battle in most leagues and is usually a primary source of fantasy angst.  But like it our not, it’s reality.  Welcome to the dump trade. Read the rest of this entry »

The All-Star break is as good a time as any to update our American League Outfielder Rankings. (Note: That means outfielders who play only in the AL, so please don’t flood the comments with oblivious flabbergastery over the complete and utter disrespect for not including Jay Bruce. For that, go here.) Given the timing, let’s go ahead and call this our second-half ranks. While performances to date do matter, the intent here is to, as Doc Brown might say: “Get a clear perception of humanity (i.e., fantasy performance). Where we’ve been (April, May, June), where we’re going (July, August, September), the pitfalls (Carl Crawford), the possibilities (Curtis Granderson), the perils (Shin-Soo Choo) and the promise (Mike Trout). Perhaps even an answer to that universal question: Where is [insert name here] ranked?”

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