Superman’s Quiet Progress
Matt Wieters was supposed to be a switch-hitting Joe Mauer with power. He ranked as the top prospect in the game prior to the 2009 season, and he inspired a Matt Wieters Facts page with gems like, “Scott Boras Hired Matt Wieters As His Agent” and “Matt Wieters Took Batting Practice This Morning. There Were No Survivors.” Given that backdrop, anything less than MVP-caliber performances from Wieters wouldn’t satiate the masses. And that’s a shame, because Wieters has quietly become one of the better catchers in the game while attention has been fixed on finding the next Next Big Thing.
Take a look at Wieters’ offensive performance over the period of 2009-2011:
2009: .288/.340/.412, .330 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
2010: .249/.319/.377, .303 wOBA
2011: .265/.324/.417, .326 wOBA
Some people might look at those lines and say that Wieters had a promising rookie year, tanked in 2010 and is hitting slightly worse in 2011 at 25 years of age than he did as a 23-year-old. Viewed through that prism, Wieters looks like a disappointment. But that thought process is flawed because it doesn’t frame those numbers within the context of changing run-scoring levels across baseball.
In 2009, major league teams scored an average of 4.6 runs per game. That total fell to 4.4 runs per game in 2010 and is down to 4.2 runs per game in 2011. Look at the effect that drop has had on the collective MLB line for hitters over the years:
2009: .262/.333/.418, .329 wOBA
2010: .257/.325/.403, .321 wOBA
2011: .253/.319/.391, .315 wOBA
The line for catchers over that time frame has nosedived from .254/.320/.395 in 2009 to .249/.319/.381 last season and .242/.314/.379 this year. With teams scoring fewer runs, comparing a hitter’s line in 2011 to years past is an apples-to-oranges exercise.
Put in proper context, Wieters’ 2011 season is indicative of a young player making solid offensive progress. At a time when hitters are faring worse as a whole, Wieters is showing more power, hitting fewer ground balls and striking out less. His park-and-league-adjusted line this year is two percent better than average (102 wRC+), while his rookie season was five percent below average (95 wRC+). But it might not feel that way to some fantasy players, given Wieters’ gargantuan expectations and the difficulty in mentally adjusting to the lower run-scoring levels in the game over the past several seasons.
Wieters has the sixth-highest wOBA among catchers qualified for the batting title, and his rest-of-season ZiPS projection ranks in the top 10 among backstops who figure to get frequent playing time. Yet, he’s still on the waiver wire in 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Some owners waiting on Superman are missing out on a quality, mid-twenties catcher with upside remaining.
A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.
He’s also hitting better than Joe Mauer this year, with more power
As a Wieters fantasy owner, I can honestly say I am happy with his production this season.
This is one of the better objective analysises out there on Wieters. The “Year(s) of the Pitcher” context is an interesting argument.
This isn’t going to factor into Fantasy, but Wieters is also probably one of the best, if not best, defensive catchers out there. Not only has he NOT allowed a Pass Ball all season yet (It was ironic that he allowed on in the All-Star break though. Ha), but he also leads the league in Throwing %. He went a long stretch throwing out about 50% of runners, until a run of notoriously slow-to-the-plate Os pitchers really messed up that streak.
just watch the game. enough with baseball being a math class please
Go back to Mexico.
Jabronis.
I don’t think those negative vote people got the JJ-Kurt Angle joke. I barely got it.
The problem was that so many publications were projecting the guy to be even better than Mike Piazza right out the gate. Those are heavy expectations for any player, let alone a catcher who shot through the minor leagues as fast as Weiters did.
“Wieters has the sixth-highest wOBA among catchers qualified for the batting title,”
It does help that Mauer and Posey have been out for long periods of time. But even 8th best wOBA and his great defense is extremely valuable… in real life. In fantasy, he should be owned in almost all leagues but still has to be seen as a disappointment.
I have no idea how he can be unowned in any leagues but if you took him in a keeper league (like I did two years ago) I think you were expecting a little more than projected top 10 at catcher the rest of the way. A statement which seems like even less of a compliment when, as mentioned, production from catcher has been absolutely terrible.
The increased line drive rate is a good sign and could indicate that his batting average has room to grow. Maybe he’ll be a .280-.300 hitter in the years to come. Definitely a useful player for fantasy, but I feel like we’ll always be disappointed in him.
I’m surprised it wasn’t mentioned that Wieter’s BABIP was .356 in 2009 and it’s been in the high .280s the past 2 years. I guess it remains to be seen which number is a better reflection of his talent, but 2009 has pretty much only looked better than 2011 because of the BA inflation (and now, after Sunday, 2011 is better for the time being).