Yesterday, the Royals Wilson Betemit was traded to the Tigers for 2 low level/talent minor league prospects. Here is a quick look at the fantasy implications of the trade.

Wilson Betemit (8% owned ESPN) – Betemit looks to be the Tigers new everyday 3B taking over for Brandon Inge and Don Kelly. Wilson is an improvement for the Tigers at 3B and has the chance to be a decent fantasy 3B.

Looking at the past 2 seasons for 3B with over 500 PA, Wilson’s OPS (0.830) ranks 7th in the majors. The following players were right above and below him in the rankings, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Michael Young and Aramis Ramirez. OPS is not a perfect stat to state a fantasy player’s value, but it does show how well he has hit recently. Betemit’s fantasy value comes from his ability to hit for average and generate some HR power. He is not a stolen base threat at all.

Betemit has been hitting like an elite 3B, but not getting many plate appearances in KC. I could see him be a 2nd half surprise for the owner that takes a chance on him. He should be owned in all leagues right now. With the lack of 3B talent available, he will be valuable to some team.

Brandon Inge (4% owned ESPN) – Inge is effectively worthless right now. He was optioned to AAA by the Tigers. Short of an injury or another team taking a chance on him, I don’t see a reason to hold him in any league.

Royals IF situation – What a mess for fantasy owners. Betemit was the backup 2B and 3B before the trade. Right now the Royals should/could make some changes at 3B and 2B.

The 3B for the Royals, rookie Mike Moustakas, is 0 for his last 22. He has a triple slash line of 0.190/0.252/0.241 for the season (the type of line that Inge lost his 3B job for having). With Betemit gone, Mike Aviles, who was recently recalled from AAA, will be his replacement. Aviles is a streaky hitter. He walks little and relies heavily on the BABIP fairy for his results. He does have some power and may see some playing time if Moustakas continues to struggle.

Aviles will also be the backup for the 2B, Chris Getz. Getz is actually an OK SB fantasy contributor with 17. The rest of his game is declining (not 1 XBH in his last 35 hits) and the Royals may be looking at bringing up the PCL’s June Player of the Month, Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella currently has a triple slash line of 0.337/0.392/0.483 with 9 SB and 9 HRs in 432 PA in AAA. The word from some sources in KC was that Betemit was moved so Giavotella could be added to the 40 man roster.

Right now it is going to a little tough to figure out what the Royals are going to do with the lack of offensive production from their 2B and 3B. I would bet that they stay with the status quo and keep Moustakas and Getz in the lineup no matter how bad they struggle.

This may be the only time in history that the 6’2″, 235-pound Brandon Allen shares a space with mighty mite Jose Altuve — all 5’7″, 170 of him.

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After a one week hiatus, I’m continuing to look at players who have been busts in ottoneu fangraphs points fantasy baseball leagues.  It uses the same model described in this post, although the values have been updated based on year to date statistics.

Second Base

My Pick: Dan Uggla

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By now you’ve probably heard. Diamondbacks’ shortstop Stephen Drew will miss the rest of the season after fracturing his ankle sliding into home last night, an injury that was Jason Kendall-esque. I was actually watching the game live and it was pretty gruesome, and since I’m a bit of a softie I won’t link to the video here. I’m sure the FanGraphs’ faithful can find if it you’re so inclined.

Anyway, Drew was one of fantasy baseball’s better shortstops, a position lacking depth. His .252/.317/.396 batting line is unspectacular, but he had the fourth most RBI (45) among players at the position. It’s safe to drop him off your roster entirely given the nature of his injury and expected timetable, so let’s try to dig up some replacements…

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Danny Duffy made his Major League debut on May 18 with a tough assignment against the Texas Rangers. Not too surprisingly, he only lasted four innings after walking six batters. The 22-year old lefty was promoted after throwing 42.0 innings at Triple-A and posting strong skills including a 48/10 K:BB ratio. So far with a 4.58 ERA and 104 xFIP-, he has not embarrassed himself, but has probably been a bit of a disappointment for fans of his.

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Jeff Keppinger was traded to San Francisco for 2 pitchers yesterday. The trade opened up a position for Jose Alture at 2B in Houston. The following is a look at how the move will effect each player’s fantasy value.

Jeff Keppinger (5% owned in ESPN) – Keppinger was having an OK season with the Astros so far this season. The 31 year old’s main fantasy value was coming from a 0.307 AVG. He has hit for little power 4 HRs and had 0 SB so far this season.

With the Astros, Keppinger generally hit in the 2nd, 3rd or 5th position in the lineup which have better chances of creating RBIs and Runs. He has not started for SF yet (he is not in Wednesday’s lineup, so he may not actually be a regular starter for the team), but he is not likely to get placed in such nice counting stat generating position in their lineup.

Another item to take into account is that the SF offense as a whole has performed worse (3.7 R/G) than Houston’s offense (3.9 R/G) this season.

Even though Keppinger’s ownership rate has almost doubled since the trade, it is likely that his production will be less than it was with Houston. I would not pick him up in any league that he wasn’t already owned in. With possible questions surrounding his playing time, I may look at replacing him with his replacement in Houston.

Jose Altuve (0% owned – ESPN) – Altuve gets the chance to take over as the everyday 2B for the Astros. The 21 year old has some promising minor league numbers with a triple slash line of 0.327/0.386/0.481. He has shown a little power with 15 HRs last season and 10 so far this season.

His main contribution for fantasy owners is ability to attempt SBs with 60 attempts in 2010. He was successful 42 times (70% success rate). So far this season in the minors, he is 24 for 38 or a 63% success rate. Both of those rates are below the break even point of 75% at the major league level. He will probably not get the green light in the majors with only a 63% success rate. With the Astros out of the race this year, I could see them give him the green light for the rest of the season to see how he can perform against MLB talent to get a success rate determined.

Another item going for him is that the Astros have him batting in the number 2 spot in their lineup. He could be a decent source of runs if he is able to stay near the top of the lineup.

Jose should be owned in all NL only leagues because he is a player that should be getting regular playtiming for a while. He may also be an option in deeper leagues if an owner is in need of 2B help.

Madison Bumgarner | Giants
Despite some poor looking fantasy numbers, Bumgarner has been damn good lately in both fantasy and reality. His roto numbers over the past thirty days are skewed by his disastrous outing against the Twins in which he faced ten batters and gave up nine hits (his one out was via the strikeout). But even in that outing, Bumgarner threw twenty-two of his twenty-five pitches for strikes and refused to yield a homer. Bumgarner also had a poor fantasy outing against the Padres before the All-Star break, but once again, he did not allow a dinger.

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At this very moment, there are but four teams with all three starting outfielders ranking in the Top 40 among outfield WAR. When you’re done guessing — er, trying to guess — click below to find out which teams. (Hint: You might as well just click — you won’t get all four.)

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It’s really time to start looking deeper into your free agent pool these days.  Of course, it looks better when a player is owned in 40% of ESPN leagues, but does that really mean he’s outperforming a guy that may only be owned in 15%?  Not always the case.  It may just mean that fewer people are paying attention and don’t know as much about him to realize that he is the superior fantasy option at this point in time.  Here’s a pair of guys that just might fit that description. Read the rest of this entry »

Another week and another innovation at ottoneu headquarters. Now you can browse any ottoneu league you like, right here. A few recommendations include the FanGraphs Staff League, the original ottoneu league, Justin Merry’s league (for you linear weights players, since he’s the scoring system creator and all), and, yes, the Expert’s League. Use the feature to learn a little more about what you should do in your league.

For example. A little ride over to the commissioner’s team page in the Expert’s League can show you what our group of prognosticators decided Brian McCann was worth ($33). Or how many minor leaguers a seasoned ottoneu player owns (zero in this case). Lastly, since Commissioner Chad Young has his Amateur Hour team in seventh place, it can show you what another ottoneu team trying to decide whether to buy or sell looks like.

It’s an interesting team, you might find when you’re looking at his set lineups page. He’s got J.P. Arencibia and Brian McCann, two very good young catchers, both playing right now. And yet he only has 13 games left to play at the position. Is McCann going to be worth $35 next year? Will someone want Arencibia? This is a clear position of surplus for Young.

His team is not that old, though. Sure, he has Vladimir Guerrero ready to head to the bench for good, and of course no minor leaguers, but he also boasts Eric Hosmer, Hunter Pence, Domonic Brown and Mike Moustakas as position players. But the Vlad injury forces him to play Rajai Davis in the outfield. He could use an outfielder if he’s going to go for it this year.

His pitching is strong. Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Jeremy Hellickson, Shaun Marcum and Jair Jurrjens are the headliners, but Julio Teheran and Ryan Dempster make for a good bench. If he goes for it, a $10 Marcum might have great trade value without requiring him to sell his top pitching prospect. If he calls it quits on the year, a $43 Roy Halladay may not be keepable, as much of a machine as the Doc is.

The old adage is that “Nobody cares about your fantasy team.” The irony is that you can learn a lot from looking at other people’s fantasy teams. And before we get too up in arms about Chad’s team, we should go softly. He’s about to return from his honeymoon to discover that Guerrero broke his hand. As if returning from a honeymoon wasn’t difficult enough.

Oh, and the offer still stands! Fill an ottoneu league now, and the entire league is free. Contact ottoneu founder Niv Shah if that sounds interesting to you (on twitter or at help @ ottoneu.com).