Today we’ll continue our look at Pick Six values by looking at middle infield and outfield.  You can see our discussion of catcher and corner infield values here.  As a reminder, the production numbers you see below (FP/PA = Fangraphs Points per Plate Appearance) are weighted averages of THT’s Oliver and BPro’s PECOTA.  I didn’t include ZiPS, but feel free to click the players and look up those numbers as well.

Middle Infield

Elite Three (they cost a fortune, but they’re worth it):

Troy Tulowitzki, 1.57 FP/PA, $56.75
Hanley Ramirez, 1.53 FP/PA, $51.50
Robinson Cano, 1.40 FP/PA, $46.75

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After focusing on pitchers for the past couple Mining the Minors Fridays, let’s switch gears and check out two hitters who could soon be making their way to a major-league ballpark near you.

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Everyone is happy when one of their pitchers is scheduled for two starts in a week. But that is not always a good thing. Here are five pitchers you may be on the fence about (or should be on the fence) putting into your lineup for Week 8.

Bronson Arroyo – After a solid April, Arroyo has hit the skids here in May. He has a 4.61 ERA despite a .247 BABIP. Arroyo has managed that feat by allowing 6 HR in 27.1 IP. This week he goes on the road to Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Braves are tied for second in the National League with 47 HR and while the Phillies are not the power-hitting club they’ve been in the past, Citizens Bank Park is still a homer-friendly venue. Put Arroyo on the bench this week.

Jhoulys Chacin – Fantasy players are not completely on the Chacin bandwagon and it’s hard to understand why. He’s hurled a Quality Start in seven of his nine games this season, including the last five. He’s fourth in the league in GB% and has a strong 7.80 K/9. And if that’s not enough, he checks in with a fine 1.12 WHIP. Chacin has two home starts this week and he has a 1.80 ERA after five games in Coors Field this year. Make sure he’s in your lineup.

Jorge de la Rosa – Much like his teammate listed above, de la Rosa is having a strong season yet is not considered a must-start by the fantasy crowd. Previously, walks have been a big problem but this year de la Rosa has a solid 3.18 BB/9. Last year he was victimized by the gopher ball, but in 2011 de la Rosa has kept the ball in the park and has allowed 4 HR in 56.2 IP. With two home starts this week, where he is 3-0 with a 3.50 ERA, feel confident in putting him in your lineup.

Jeremy Hellickson – In his last five starts, Hellickson is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.121 WHIP. He’s not striking out batters at last year’s high rate, but his 6.35 K/9 is more than acceptable when it comes along with those other numbers. It should be noted that he is outperforming his peripherals, especially his xFIP which checks in at 4.26, over a full run higher than his 3.18 ERA. Still, I like Hellickson’s chances to continue his strong pitching this week.

Jonathon Niese – A poor start to the season leaves Niese available in two-thirds of CBS Sports leagues. But in his last six starts he his 3-2 with a 3.29 ERA. Overall, Niese is using his curve ball more in 2011 and the results have been better with both his hook and fastball according to Pitch Type Values. Niese gets a bunch of ground balls (49.4%) and this year he is getting a large number of infield pop-ups (13.2%). It’s not the greatest matchups for Niese this week, with a road start in Chicago and a home game against the Phillies. Still, with his strong pitching lately, he makes a solid streaming option this week.

Other scheduled two-start pitchers in Week 8 are listed below. Please remember that these are projected pitchers and changes can and will happen between now and next week.

Haren, Verlander, Weaver, Kershaw, Beckett, Hamels, Nolasco, Jurrjens, Gallardo, Cain, Britton, Romero, Buchholz, Cueto, Ogando, Masterson, Lohse, Dempster, Norris, Colon, Danks, McCarthy, Ross, Vargas, Pavano, Gorzelanny, Litsch, Blanton, Duffy, Moseley, Coke, Saunders.

Check back Sunday night for an update of two-start pitchers.

Now I want to provide some accountability and check in and see how previous recommendations turned out. There needs to be a two-week lag, since last week’s pitchers have not completed their second start yet. So here are Week 6 pitchers and how they fared.

Jackson – Advised to sit. W, 5 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 7 IP. 0 ER
Latos – Advised to sit. W, 9 Ks, 3.97 ERA, 1.412 WHIP, 11.1 IP, 5 ER
Lilly – Advised to start. W, 9 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12 IP, 6 ER
Liriano – Advised to sit. 1 K, 12.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 3 IP, 4 ER
Morrow – Advised to start. W, 14 Ks, 8.64 ERA, 1.560 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 8 ER

At 24-17, the Florida Marlins are in the thick of the NL East race. The Fish sit just a game and a half back of the division-leading Phillies, thanks to middle-of-the-pack pitching and hitting and superb defense. Florida’s staff collectively ranks sixth in the NL in xFIP, its offense is sixth in runs scored, and Marlins fielders pace the Senior Circuit in runs saved, according to Ultimate Zone Rating.

The Marlins’ offense would no doubt rank toward the top of the league if Hanley Ramirez weren’t mired in a season-long batting slump during which his power production has been downright Ecksteinian. The perennial first-round pick, projected by ZiPS to hit .309/.388/.512 in 2011, has instead slogged his way to a .211/.294/.309 triple-slash through 170 plate appearances.

Some unlucky bounces have played a part in Ramirez’s anemic start — his batting average on balls in play is .242, compared to a .329 expected BABIP and a career .341 BABIP. But there’s no doubt that Hanley hasn’t been his usual, powerful self at the plate. Projected for a .203 Isolated Power by ZiPS, Ramirez has a .099 ISO in 2011 that trails the mark posted by slap-hitting teammate Emilio Bonifacio. What in the name of ottoneu is going on here?

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Jake Arrieta was drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft and moved up through the minors relatively quickly, making his Orioles debut in 2010. With sub-3.00 ERAs at three of his four stops down on the farm, he made his way up the pitching prospect rankings. After getting a mid-season call last year, Arrieta is making it through his first full season at the Major League level. It is likely that Arrieta is owned in every deep mixed and AL-Only league, but the question becomes whether we may be witnessing a breakout season that would enable him to generate value in shallower mixed leagues.

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I’m not sure about you, but there always seems to be that one player that ends up on my team(s) year after year. Right now that guy is Ryan Raburn, but over the least few years it was Brad Hawpe. That wasn’t necessarily a bad thing, Hawpe was a slam dunk .280+ AVG, .380+ OBP, 20+ HR, 80+ RBI guy for nearly half-a-decade, which is pretty good value when you consider that he always seemed to be going later in the draft. He betrayed my fantasy loyalty in 2010 though, hitting just .245/.338/.419 (.330 wOBA) in 346 PA with the Rockies and the Rays, finishing the season on a 60 game schneid that featured a .197/.304/.350 batting line (181 PA). Needless to say, I avoided him on draft day this year like a lover scorned.

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Last Thursday, there was a lot to get to, what with plenty of minor-league players — and even some really big-name prospects — making their MLB debuts. Just because there may not be an Eric Hosmer or Julio Teheran to introduce to owners this time, does that mean recent recalls should be altogether ignored? Disregard at your own risk, fellow fantasy fiends.

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Kelly Johnson came into the season a fairly decent option at second base. In one keeper league I was in, him and Ben Zobrist were both available. I considered them to be at the same talent level and went with Johnson. Wrong choice. Today I will look to see why Johnson has fallen on hard times and was there any signs for the drop off in production?

First off here is a look at some of his stats over the years and his 2011 ZIPS projection:

Kelly actually looks to produce pretty decent in a few fantasy categories if he keeps producing at his current rate. If he were to play in 120 games, thereby tripling the number of games he would be in, his SB would extract out to 18 (a career high). Also his Runs (51) and home runs (12) would be respectable. His main problem is his 0.184 AVG.

There are two main factors driving down his batting average. The first is his lower than average BABIP of 0.250. He put up a BABIP of 0.339 last season and was projected to have one around 0.306 for this season. His LD% has dropped from 20.5% to 15% this season with most of the change going to GB%. Using the common run that every 1% drop in LD%, BABIP goes down 0.010, this would explain the drop in BABIP.

In 2009, he had an even lower BABIP (0.247) than he does this season, but his AVG was 40 points higher. The main cause for this difference is that Kelly is striking out twice as much (34.2%) this season, then he did in in 2009 (17.8%). Here is a look at his plate discipline over the past few years:

He is swinging at a few more pitches than in the last couple of years. This trend is not necessarily bad, but he is making less and less contact. His contact rate has dropped 12 percentage points (84.4% to 72.4%) over the last couple of years. The problem is not with him swinging at balls outside of the strike zone, in which his contact rate is up. Actually, he is having problems making contact with pitches in the strike zone (94% down to 78%).

Coming into the season, his AVG looked to regress some considering the high BABIP he had in 2010. His BABIP did regress, but the main cause of the lack of production is his inability to put the ball in play for the pitches he swings at. It would have been tough to predict the huge increase in strikeouts this season.

Kelly may be a buy low candidate (as he looks to still have a little power and can steal a few bases), but his average right now will drag down the rest of the team. Until he is able to start hitting line drives and putting the bat on the ball, an owner may need to look for other options.

In today’s look at NL Starting Pitchers, we focus on two youngsters in the NL West, including one starter who’s having problems in the minors.

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