There are a number of prominent fantasy players who are currently injured but are scheduled to come off the disabled list in the next few weeks. Late April could end up feeling like Christmas to some owners. We’re going to take a look at three of those players today.
No, Albert Pujols will not continue to post a .280 wOBA this season and no, Paul Konerko’s .427 wOBA is (probably) unsustainable as well. Those guys have long track records and we know what kind of numbers they’re going to have at season’s end. This edition of Risers & Fallers focuses on some younger players without that kind of track record to fall back on…
My wife was late last week. Not late for dinner late, but late late. To subdue the paranoia, it was a quick trip to the drug store and back home for her to pee on the stick. We sit and wait. Can’t be, can she? Apologies to my Catholic readers, but she’s on the pill. We couldn’t possibly be part of that unlucky 2% could we? We look and see a plus sign. That can’t be good. It’s not. I hand her another one. This time it looks negative but there’s some coloration that still makes us nervous. Rather than reach for the nearest coat hanger, I make her a doctor’s appointment and luck out with an 8am opening the next day. She goes in, the doctor confirms a false positive and the bullet gets dodged. Phew! Read the rest of this entry »
This early in the season, I essentially ignore ERA. Of course, this sentiment is not much different than how I treat the statistic for most of the year, but with just a few starts under most pitchers’ belts, ERA is pretty meaningless. As usual, I focus on the underlying skills, which of course do not escape the sample size issues, but they are certainly less flukey than earned runs at this point. I sorted AL starters by xFIP so far and below are my thoughts on some of the leaders that are rising in value. For those who missed my band-studded tiers of AL starters, the original rankings could be found here.
At the beginning of the season, the authors here at Fangraphs created a preseason composite ranking of 2nd basemen. Since then several 2B, not included at all on the original list, have emerged as fantasy options and here is a look at a few of them.
Owned % is from Yahoo
Stats are AB/AVG/HR/SB
Angel Sanchez – 15% owned – 43/0.395/1/1 – Sanchez stepped in once Clint Barmes (hand) went on the DL. He has been a nice spark for the Astros, but his production will not continue at this clip. First, Angel has never hit over 0.305 in the minors or the majors. Also, his 0.444 BABIP can not be maintained. Finally he is not a SB (20 total in the last five years) or HR (12 in the same 5 years) threat. I could see the Astros continue to play the hot hand when Barmes returns, but I fully expect him to be a backup soon.
Orlando Cabrera – 28% owned – 39/0.333/1/0 – Orlando has moved to 2B in Cleveland and help solidify the the position for the Indians. Most of his current value is from his 0.333 average. The high average is being fueled by a 0.353 BABIP. His previous highest BABIP was 0.319 in 2007, so I expect this season’s value to regress some. He used to be a decent source of stolen bases, but that number has steadily declined since 2006 (27 to 20 to 19 to 13 to 11). Also, he hasn’t hit over 10 home runs since 2005. Orlando isn’t going to win an owner any leagues by himself, but with his versatility in playing both the 2B and SS position, he could be a nice injury plugin.
Jose Lopez – 14% owned – 29/0.241/2/1 – The season started good for Lopez when he got the first 5 starts of the season at 2B. Since them Jonathan Herrera has gotten the rest of the starts at 2B (4). In two of those starts Lopez did get the start at 3B. Playing time for him is just not assured at this point in Colorado.
Lopez seems to have gotten some of his power back that he lost last season. He is currently 2nd on the Rockies with 2 home runs behind Toluwitzki who has 4. He could be a nice source of power if he can continue to get plenty of playing time. Also owners can probably expect his 0.241 AVG to rise as he currently has a BABIP of just 0.208
In this edition of NL Starting Pitchers, we go with players returning from injury and those who are directly affected by it.
Let’s look at two closers who, right now, are headed in the opposite direction…
Time to take a look and see who might be available in your leagues and could be worth adding to your squad. It’s still real early, but there might be a few choice names out there that can help, whether it’s short term or long term. Here’s a few to think about… Read the rest of this entry »
Save for a few rogue ottoneu one league members, we’re all new to this game. One quirk in the game is the fact that though we have two catcher slots, we only get 162 games from those two slots combined. This is to reflect the reality shown in real baseball – all catcher situations are tandems, more or less. It’s a difficult position, and so even the hardiest, youngest catchers need days off. This does leave ottoneu managers in a difficult position – how do we best handle that position?
Let’s focus on the top 12 catchers by games played last year. They averaged 130 games played. That means you should really buy a number one catcher and then look for a $1 value to plug in for those other 32 games. That means if you are playing two catchers every game, you better watch out for your games played limit, like, now.
But how should you use those 32 games best? One thing you could do is find a backup catcher with a great platoon split. Then you could play him whenever that split is activated, and get more value out those games. Going back to 2008 in order to get a decent sample, here are some guys that have played well against lefties but might be backups in your ottoneu league:
Kelly Shoppach (.396 wOBA)
John Buck (.374 wOBA)
Carlos Ruiz (.368 wOBA)
Ryan Hanigan (.360 wOBA)
Ronny Paulino (.353 wOBA)
A natural extension of this approach might actually have you sitting your primary catcher if they aren’t great against southpaws. That would leave more at-bats for your backup in case you ended up with two strong catchers. Here are some front-line dudes that don’t play so front-line against lefties:
Matt Wieters (.275 wOBA)
Kurt Suzuki (.292 wOBA)
Miguel Montero (.328 wOBA)
Russell Martin (.333 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.333 wOBA)
There are some obvious caveats that should come to mind. First, this second list includes some young players that have not ‘proven’ that they cannot hit lefties yet. Also, a .333 wOBA is above average, and strong for a catcher, so maybe you shouldn’t sit Brian McCann, like, ever.
But there is a chance that if you have a first catcher that is a little weaker against lefties, and a backup catcher that is strong against lefties, you might find a great mix between the two. With a little daily effort, you can use platoon splits to get the best 162 games out of your roster.
Surprise, surprise, Josh Hamilton is hurt again. Yesterday, Eno Sarris outlined what the Rangers are likely to do in terms of divvying up playing time in Hamilton’s absence. David Murphy is a potential replacement for your fantasy team, but he is likely to already be owned in deep leagues. As a result, I have decided to ignore him and provide some other outfield options for those owners struggling to replace Hamilton’s production.